325 S Ozark Trail Trl · Goodman, MO 64843

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1998 3.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

🌳 3.38 Acres on the Edge of Goodman, MO Opportunity awaits with this * * 3.38-acre tract * * located on the * * edge of Goodman, Missouri * * . The property offers * * city water * * and a peaceful rural setting . The * * home on site holds no value * * , and all * * measurements are approximate * * . This is a * * foreclosure property * * being sold * * as-is * * . * * Buyers are responsible for conducting their own due diligence * * regarding condition, utilities, and property details. A great chance to secure acreage with city services in a growing area of Newton County.

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#325 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Neosho School District (town): math 36% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #125 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 20 units permitted in McDonald County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• McDonald County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.55%
• DSCR: 2.85
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,360
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 S Ozark Trl	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	11mo	$199,700	$127	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $47,335
• Equity at exit: $33,629

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.20×
• Total profit: $114,622
• Equity at exit: $63,037

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64843

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $285/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $388

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $512	-5% $498	+0% $484	+5% $470	+10% $456
Rent	-10% $405	-5% $444	+0% $484	+5% $523	+10% $563
Rate	-1.0pp $509	-0.5pp $496	base $484	+0.5pp $471	+1.0pp $458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
218 W Maverick Goodman, MO	3.0	1.0	1376	$1,000	$0.73	24d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-30
   statusdays on market $49,900 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-05-28
   listed $49,900 Active
3. 2026-05-28
   listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $285 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$199/yr (+$17/mo · 69.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$285
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $5,299
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,272
• After-tax cash flow: $4,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neosho School District
• NCES district ID: 2921810
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,574
• Composite: 35.21/100
• National rank: #4987
• State rank: #125 of 324 in MO

Livability — Goodman

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #14850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodman, MO
• Population (ZIP): 3,193

Population outlook (McDonald County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,753 people
• By 2030: 21,154 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 19,946 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 18,666 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 16,201 · -25.5%
• By 2100: 14,550 · -33.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Philippines, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McDonald

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+66.6 2016: R+64.0 2012: R+48.3 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.71%
• Current HPI: 211.4918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $49,900 OGAR
• 2026-05-28 Listed $49,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $285 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.