4202 Orchid Blvd · Poinciana, FL 33898

$145,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 432 Days on market

Built 1987 7,248 sqft lot $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ w/ NO LOT RENT and only a $60 monthly HOA! BRAND NEW ROOF October of 2025 and a plumbing re-pipe with 20 year warranty December of 2025-no poly pipes here! You own your land in Nature’s Edge, an active 55+ community. Live like you’re on vacation year-round or make it your perfect winter retreat to soak up the Florida sunshine! Community amenities include a pool, fitness room, shuffleboard, horseshoe pit, billiards, dog park, and clubhouse. There’s always something fun happening with regular events like bingo, cards, fish frys, dances, potlucks, golf outings, Billiards, water aerobics and so much more! For golf lovers, the Lake Wales Country Club is just 10 miles away,

Key facts

• Low monthly hoa fee
• Community amenities
• Pool

Tags

• LOW MONTHLY HOA FEE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• FITNESS ROOM
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• HORSESHOE PIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption indicated
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $60; total annual fees $720; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA of $60; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; Association fees cover common area taxes, reserves, grounds maintenance, pool and recreational facilities; Association approval required; Deed-restricted senior community with pet allowances (cats and dogs allowed with breed/number limits); golf carts permitted

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway parking; Off-street parking; Parking pad; Golf cart parking and garage; Attached garage (1 car); Carport (1 space); Bath in garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Faces north
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal and shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as residential manufactured home
• Exterior features: Awnings; Storage; Cleared lot; Corner lot; Level lot; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Wet bar; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 432 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 432 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.56%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-710
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $28,802
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,510/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,274

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $439	-5% $398	+0% $357	+5% $316	+10% $275
Rent	-10% $221	-5% $289	+0% $357	+5% $426	+10% $494
Rate	-1.0pp $430	-0.5pp $394	base $357	+0.5pp $320	+1.0pp $282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4241 Alamanda Blvd Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,500	$1.27	15d	1	0.24mi
132 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,800	$0.98	24d	1	1.18mi
205 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,100	$1.25	19d	1	1.23mi
205 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,100	$1.25	11d	1	1.23mi
6560 Timberlane Rd Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	24d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 432 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 431 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 430 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 429 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 427 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 424 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 423 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 422 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 421 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 418 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 416 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 415 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 414 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    price $145,000
15. 2025-11-13
    price $149,500
16. 2025-09-24
    price $155,000
17. 2025-04-13
    listed $150,000 Active
18. 2025-04-10
    historical
19. 2025-03-07
    price $150,000
20. 2025-03-03
    price $154,000
21. 2025-02-19
    price $158,000
22. 2025-02-13
    price $166,501
23. 2025-01-10
    listed $166,500 Active
24. 2024-06-21
    historical
25. 2024-02-24
    price $179,000
26. 2024-01-22
    listed $182,000 Active
27. 2021-05-26
    soldstatus $105,000
28. 2021-05-21
    soldstatus $105,000 Closed
29. 2021-04-21
    status Pending
30. 2021-03-28
    price $107,500
31. 2021-02-24
    status Active
32. 2021-02-24
    status Pending
33. 2021-02-21
    listed $109,900 Active
34. 2017-04-07
    soldstatus $72,000
35. 2017-04-05
    soldstatus $72,000 Sold
36. 2017-02-17
    status Pending
37. 2017-02-06
    price $74,900
38. 2017-01-07
    price $79,500
39. 2016-11-15
    listed $85,000 Active
40. 2004-07-30
    soldstatus $71,800
41. 2004-03-10
    soldstatus $62,000
42. 2002-02-13
    soldstatus $65,500
43. 1999-07-16
    soldstatus $63,500
44. 1997-01-16
    soldstatus $45,000
45. 1994-03-24
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,510 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,510 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,510
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $2,108
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$506
• After-tax cash flow: $3,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+202.1% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $149,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-13 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $154,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $158,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $166,501 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-10 Listed $166,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-24 Price Changed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-22 Listed $182,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-21 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-28 Price Changed $107,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-21 Listed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-05 Sold (MLS) $72,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-06 Price Changed $74,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-07 Price Changed $79,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-15 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $71,800 Public Records
• 2004-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $65,500 Public Records
• 1999-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records
• 1997-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1994-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,510 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.