200 Santa Ana #16 · Rancho Viejo, TX 78575

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,525 sqft · Condo public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1981 $115/sqft · 17% above area Est $149k · 17% over ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful condo very well kept, has a two, car detached garage. Common grounds and pool access, come take a look today, seller will remove all furniture and appliances.

Key facts

• Pool access
• Common grounds
• Detached garage

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• COMMON GROUNDS
• POOL ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $524 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#341 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.83%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,000
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 17.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $5,014
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $47,380
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78575

• Home prices YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,159 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,291/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,496

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4601 Carmen Ave #1604 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.5	1200	$2,200	$1.83	21d	1	0.20mi
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 2204 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$2,000	$1.76	13d	1	0.20mi
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 1603 Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.5	1328	$2,400	$1.81	13d	1	0.20mi
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 1903 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.0	1169	$2,000	$1.71	43d	1	0.20mi
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 1704 Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.5	1944	$2,700	$1.39	13d	1	0.20mi
811 De Leon Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	3.0	2050	$2,100	$1.02	43d	1	0.41mi
629 Balboa Rd Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1666	$2,000	$1.20	13d	1	0.50mi
3803 Carmen Ave Olmito, TX	4.0	3.0	2075	$2,100	$1.01	43d	1	0.52mi
215 Zapata Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	3.0	1953	$2,300	$1.18	13d	1	0.53mi
3500 Carmen Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	1145	$1,825	$1.59	13d	2	0.72mi
3500 Carmen Ave #408 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	1.0	1070	$2,300	$2.15	13d	1	0.73mi
3500 Carmen Ave #1103 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.5	1222	$1,500	$1.23	43d	1	0.73mi
2515 El Dorado Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,550	$1.09	13d	1	1.21mi
2101 El Dorado Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,600	$1.13	13d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-03-14
    listed $175,000 Active 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    Beautiful condo very well kept, has a two, car detached garage. Common grounds and pool access, come take a look today, seller will remove all furniture and appliances.

18. 2022-10-12
    listed $195,000 Active
19. 1989-04-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,291 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$911/yr (+$76/mo · 39.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,291
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,072
• − Management: −$2,072
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $3,699
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$888
• After-tax cash flow: $5,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rancho Viejo

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #7444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Viejo, TX
• City population: 4,728
• Population (ZIP): 4,728

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 78% Two or more races 36% White 19% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 70% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.34%
• Current HPI: 240.4582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $175,000 RGVMLS
• 2022-10-12 Listed $195,000 MCALLENMLS
• 1989-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,291 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.