102 Casey Dr · Huntsville, AL 35806

$445,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,799 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2003 Est $778k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Location! This full brick home is ready for your touches. With 4 beds and 3.5 baths, a large great room, a formal dining room, a big kitchen with a breakfast nook, and a downstairs study, it has plenty of space for everyone. The downstairs master features a glamour bath. Upstairs, the spacious and private bedroom has lots of space and a full bath of its own. Outside, the privacy-fenced yard has a pool ready for summer fun. Situated just outside Madison and Huntsville, it is a short drive to shopping and work. Call today for your tour.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Formal dining room
• Downstairs study

Tags

• FULL BRICK HOME
• LARGE GREAT ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• BIG KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• DOWNSTAIRS STUDY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Subdivision: Ambers Crossing

Exterior

• Parking: Attached two-car garage that faces the side
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Built in 2003; Brick construction
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Public water

Interior

• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-570 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (40.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.8% in Huntsville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#3 in AL, #1,082 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Monrovia Elementary School (math 37% / reading 69%, grade C, #100 of 627 statewide, top 16%, 495 students, 29% FRL); Monrovia Middle School (math 29% / reading 66%, grade C-, #32 of 257 statewide, top 12%, 1,003 students, 31% FRL); Sparkman High School (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #58 of 305 statewide, top 19%, 1,738 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($438k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $445k implies a 748% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,517 (40.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.49%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $778,122
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 Lee Bowden Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,910 (+4%)	5mo	$516,000	$177	73
120 Preswick Pl	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,817 (+1%)	6mo	$520,000	$185	65
14 Eddy St NW	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,718 (-3%)	1mo	$875,000	$322	58
78 Hillcrest Ave NW	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,690 (-4%)	2mo	$748,000	$278	56
12 Angell St NW	0.62mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,916 (+4%)	2mo	$1,051,000	$360	54
38 Peace St NW	0.57mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,034 (+8%)	1mo	$1,250,000	$412	49
103 Nobleton Ln NW	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,004 (+7%)	9mo	$435,000	$145	49
1 NW Chalkstone St NW	0.67mi	4/2.5	3,193 (+14%)	2mo	$777,900	$244	43
9 Angell St NW	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,522 (-10%)	10mo	$885,000	$351	41
25 Angell St NW	0.67mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,029 (+8%)	9mo	$1,304,489	$431	39
74 Hillcrest Ave NW	0.74mi	4/3.5	3,113 (+11%)	8mo	$769,000	$247	36
109 Hillcrest Ave NW	0.62mi	4/3.5	3,208 (+15%)	8mo	$892,500	$278	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $204,704
• Equity at exit: $400,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $628,663
• Equity at exit: $864,537

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35806

• Home prices YoY: 20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,635 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,592/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-570

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,357

Max offer price $344,320

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-318	-5% $-444	+0% $-570	+5% $-696	+10% $-822
Rent	-10% $-778	-5% $-674	+0% $-570	+5% $-466	+10% $-362
Rate	-1.0pp $-346	-0.5pp $-457	base $-570	+0.5pp $-685	+1.0pp $-803

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Fred Atkinson Rd Huntsville, AL	4.0	3.0	3022	$2,700	$0.89	45d	1	0.94mi
67 Town Center Dr NW Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.5	2970	$2,495	$0.84	45d	1	1.01mi
171 Kingswood Dr Huntsville, AL	4.0	2.5	2850	$2,500	$0.88	15d	1	1.05mi
445 Providence Main St NW Unit 409a Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.5	2797	$3,995	$1.43	45d	1	1.11mi
204 Roy Dr Madison, AL	5.0	4.0	3195	$3,450	$1.08	25d	1	1.42mi
351 Lofton Rd NW Huntsville, AL	4.0	2.5	2186	$2,315	$1.06	15d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $445,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $445,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $445,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $445,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $445,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $445,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $445,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $445,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $445,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $445,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $445,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 541-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $445,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,592 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,825 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$233/yr (+$19/mo · 14.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$1,592
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,530
• − Management: −$2,530
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$15,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,630
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 0102220
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,058
• Composite: 37.15/100
• National rank: #4483
• State rank: #19 of 129 in AL

Livability — Huntsville

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1082

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 380,832 people
• City population: 220,435
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 29,161
• Household income: $86,768
• Rent vs Own: 54.2% rent · 45.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1249.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,086 people
• By 2030: 409,788 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 440,557 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 460,990 · +17.6%
• By 2075: 502,872 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 513,623 · +31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 44.7% · R 53.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: -14.9pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+8.0 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+14.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 71.67%
• Current HPI: 430.5866
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.57%
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+747.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $445,000 VMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $455,000 VMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $469,900 VMLS
• 2025-06-21 Price Changed $475,000 VMLS
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $480,000 VMLS
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $500,000 VMLS
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $525,000 VMLS
• 2024-12-27 Price Changed $555,000 VMLS
• 2024-12-11 Price Changed $565,000 VMLS
• 2024-11-21 Listed $579,000 VMLS
• 2021-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,592 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.