1953 Lamson Rd · Baldwinsville, NY 13135

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1907 1.91 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable Country Old Style Colonial on 1.91 acres! Large front porch, spacious eat-in kitchen and 1st floor laundry. 1st floor bedroom and 2 bedrooms upstairs. Freshly painted, updated kitchen and bath. 4-year-old furnace, water heater and well. New large shed and old barn/shed. Conveniently close to Baldwinsville, Fulton and only 20 minutes to Syracuse. Seller has set a deadline for highest and best Wednesday 4/17/24 at 9 pm.

Key facts

• New flooring
• New blown insulation
• 1.91 acre lot

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION NEAR 690
• NEW BLOWN INSULATION
• FRESH PAINT THROUGHOUT
• UPDATES TO THE BATHROOM
• WATER SOFTENER SYSTEM
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.9% in Baldwinsville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#199 in NY, #3,083 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Baldwinsville Central School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #355 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $128,794 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.04%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $82,229
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $252,514
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13135

• Home prices YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,288 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,792/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,548

Max offer price $138,640

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-107	-5% $-156	+0% $-206	+5% $-255	+10% $-305
Rent	-10% $-308	-5% $-257	+0% $-206	+5% $-155	+10% $-104
Rate	-1.0pp $-118	-0.5pp $-161	base $-206	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-30
   price $175,000
4. 2026-03-25
   listed $180,000 Active
5. 2024-06-25
   soldstatus $150,000
6. 2024-06-21
   soldstatus $150,000 Closed 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   Adorable Country Old Style Colonial on 1.91 acres! Large front porch, spacious eat-in kitchen and 1st floor laundry. 1st floor bedroom and 2 bedrooms upstairs. Freshly painted, updated kitchen and bath. 4-year-old furnace, water heater and well. New large shed and old barn/shed. Conveniently close to Baldwinsville, Fulton and only 20 minutes to Syracuse. Seller has set a deadline for highest and best Wednesday 4/17/24 at 9 pm.

7. 2024-04-18
   status Pending 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   Adorable Country Old Style Colonial on 1.91 acres! Large front porch, spacious eat-in kitchen and 1st floor laundry. 1st floor bedroom and 2 bedrooms upstairs. Freshly painted, updated kitchen and bath. 4-year-old furnace, water heater and well. New large shed and old barn/shed. Conveniently close to Baldwinsville, Fulton and only 20 minutes to Syracuse. Seller has set a deadline for highest and best Wednesday 4/17/24 at 9 pm.

8. 2024-04-12
   listed $145,000 Active 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   Adorable Country Old Style Colonial on 1.91 acres! Large front porch, spacious eat-in kitchen and 1st floor laundry. 1st floor bedroom and 2 bedrooms upstairs. Freshly painted, updated kitchen and bath. 4-year-old furnace, water heater and well. New large shed and old barn/shed. Conveniently close to Baldwinsville, Fulton and only 20 minutes to Syracuse. Seller has set a deadline for highest and best Wednesday 4/17/24 at 9 pm.

9. 2019-06-27
   soldstatus $77,250
10. 2019-06-25
    soldstatus $77,250 Closed Sale or Rented 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Adorable 3 bedroom , 1 bath home on almost 2 acres! Charming front porch, spacious eat-in kitchen and 1st floor laundry. 1 bed down and 2 bedrooms up (note: Tax records state 3 bedroom but 3rd bedroom is smaller- would make a great office or nursery). Freshly painted - new carpets- brand new furnace and water heater! Property Being sold as is.

11. 2019-04-12
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Adorable 3 bedroom , 1 bath home on almost 2 acres! Charming front porch, spacious eat-in kitchen and 1st floor laundry. 1 bed down and 2 bedrooms up (note: Tax records state 3 bedroom but 3rd bedroom is smaller- would make a great office or nursery). Freshly painted - new carpets- brand new furnace and water heater! Property Being sold as is.

12. 2019-04-09
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Adorable 3 bedroom , 1 bath home on almost 2 acres! Charming front porch, spacious eat-in kitchen and 1st floor laundry. 1 bed down and 2 bedrooms up (note: Tax records state 3 bedroom but 3rd bedroom is smaller- would make a great office or nursery). Freshly painted - new carpets- brand new furnace and water heater! Property Being sold as is.

13. 2019-04-02
    listed $79,900 Active 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Adorable 3 bedroom , 1 bath home on almost 2 acres! Charming front porch, spacious eat-in kitchen and 1st floor laundry. 1 bed down and 2 bedrooms up (note: Tax records state 3 bedroom but 3rd bedroom is smaller- would make a great office or nursery). Freshly painted - new carpets- brand new furnace and water heater! Property Being sold as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,792 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,875 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 3.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,792
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,236
• − Management: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$5,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,339
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwinsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,182
• Composite: 44.22/100
• National rank: #2848
• State rank: #355 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baldwinsville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #3083

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 35,088
• Population (ZIP): 6,229

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.32%
• Current HPI: 313.5591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+119.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $175,000 CNYIS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $180,000 CNYIS
• 2024-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-21 Sold (MLS) $150,000 CNYIS
• 2024-04-18 Pending — CNYIS
• 2024-04-12 Listed $145,000 CNYIS
• 2019-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $77,250 Public Records
• 2019-06-25 Sold (MLS) $77,250 CNYIS
• 2019-04-12 Pending — CNYIS
• 2019-04-09 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2019-04-02 Listed $79,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,792 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.