121 Brittany Nicole Unit BR0121 · Lakeland, FL 33815

$7,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Manufactured · 400 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Horseshoe court
• Community events
• Built 2025

Tags

• HORSESHOE COURT
• COMMUNITY EVENTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info: Listed as active; list price available
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Electric service
• Home design: Spec-built property; Single-story unit
• Construction: Built with modern construction (plan 62041)
• Exterior features:

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Open, compact living space
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $7k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $861 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $7k).
• Recommended offer: $6k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $748 of equity ($48 loan paydown + $700 appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 400 days — a 12% lower offer ($6k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 2→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $6,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 400 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 16.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 153.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 527.05%
• DSCR: 24.45
• GRM: 0.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 32.84×
• Total profit: $62,408
• Equity at exit: $6,306

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 77.19×
• Total profit: $149,336
• Equity at exit: $13,599

Cash invested: $1,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33815

• Home prices YoY: 12.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 0.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,151 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$37
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$9 /mo · $105/yr
• Insurance: −$3
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $861

Break-even live

Break-even rent $61

Max offer price $7,000

Occupancy floor 20%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,750
• Closing costs: $210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
455 Arapahoe Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,199	$1.60	19d	1	0.30mi
457 Arapahoe Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	2d	1	0.31mi
2245 New Tampa Hwy Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$977	$1.95	23d	1	0.55mi
214 N Chestnut Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$1,000	$2.00	23d	1	0.58mi
808 S Central Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	23d	1	0.89mi
1031 Neville Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	728	$1,375	$1.89	19d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $7,000 Active 400 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $7,000 Active 399 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $7,000 Active 398 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $7,000 Active 397 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $7,000 Active 395 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $7,000 Active 392 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $7,000 Active 391 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $7,000 Active 390 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $7,000 Active 389 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $7,000 Active 386 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $7,000 Active 384 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $7,000 Active 383 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $6,500 Active 382 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 2 d/yr ≥108°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$392
• − Property taxes: −$105
• − Insurance: −$35
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$204
• Taxable income: $10,865
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,608
• After-tax cash flow: $7,722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,975
• Household income: $37,487
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% German 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.45%
• Current HPI: 424.0956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B