8161 Sandy Rd NE · Bainbridge Island, WA 98311

$184,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,161 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1951 0.47 ac lot $158/sqft · 60% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor & builder opportunity! Once rehabbed, this property has a ton of upside potential, with great proximity to the water & other activities! The lot is spacious and mostly level, just shy of a half-acre, & is ready to be repurposed into your vision! Close to a nature preservation area with extensive walking & old logging trails! Illahee passage is home to beautiful natural wildlife and forestry. Brownsville Marina is also close by to enjoy! Great spot for nature lovers with a fantastic mix of trees, water & mountains in the surrounding area. Main home & outbuildings have incurred fire & weather damage. Main home is originally a 4 bedro

Key facts

• Water
• Natural wildlife
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• NATURE PRESERVATION AREA
• WALKING TRAILS
• NATURAL WILDLIFE
• MIX OF TREES
• WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $184k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 1.2% in Bainbridge Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#111 in WA, #2,257 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Central Kitsap School District (urban): math 55% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #49 of 291 in WA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 151 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,294 units permitted in Kitsap County in 2024 (302 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kitsap County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $167,440 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.29%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $462,538
• List price: $184,000
• Delta: -60.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7606 Illahee Rd NE	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-4%)	12mo	$485,000	$433	54
8110 5th Ave NE	0.17mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,014 (-13%)	13mo	$450,000	$444	52
2895 Corfu Blvd NE	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+8%)	2mo	$460,000	$369	46
2521 NE John Carlson Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,274 (+10%)	10mo	$502,000	$394	44
7313 Morning View Ave NE	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,294 (+12%)	15mo	$480,000	$371	35
8189 University Point Cir NE	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,050 (-10%)	17mo	$227,500	$217	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $29,141
• Equity at exit: $27,435

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $81,908
• Equity at exit: $15,909

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98311

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,322/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $1,043

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,458

Max offer price $184,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,147	-5% $1,095	+0% $1,043	+5% $991	+10% $939
Rent	-10% $823	-5% $933	+0% $1,043	+5% $1,153	+10% $1,262
Rate	-1.0pp $1,135	-0.5pp $1,090	base $1,043	+0.5pp $995	+1.0pp $947

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1381 NE Fairgrounds Rd Bremerton, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$2,315	$2.44	15d	14	1.23mi
5848 Olive Ave NE Bremerton, WA	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,700	$1.90	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $184,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $184,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $184,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $184,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   pricedays on market $184,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-04-25
   price $199,800
10. 2026-04-15
    price $219,888
11. 2026-02-27
    listed $249,800 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,322 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$481/yr (+$40/mo · 36.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$1,322
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,667
• − Management: −$2,667
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable income: $10,100
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,424
• After-tax cash flow: $10,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Kitsap School District
• NCES district ID: 5301080
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $64,825
• Composite: 54.87/100
• National rank: #2813
• State rank: #49 of 291 in WA

Livability — Bainbridge Island

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #2257

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kitsap County · 243,099 people
• City population: 24,631
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• Population (ZIP): 28,168
• Household income: $108,757
• Rent vs Own: 24.0% rent · 76.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 502.0

Population outlook (Kitsap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 277,525 people
• By 2030: 285,040 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 294,957 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 300,622 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 315,580 · +13.7%
• By 2100: 304,340 · +9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 9% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 4% Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kitsap

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.9) · D 58.8% · R 37.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.9 2020: D+18.1 2016: D+11.6 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -378.18%
• Current HPI: 356.6272
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.27%
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $199,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $219,888 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $249,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,322 · -67.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.