309 E 3rd St · Nixon, TX 78140

$99,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 471 Days on market

Built 1940 0.32 ac lot $53/sqft · 45% below area Est $181k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming older home on a corner lot with Mature trees. Great Starter home that needs some TLC.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 471 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#878 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Nixon-Smiley CISD (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #451 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Gonzales County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $514 of equity ($688 loan paydown + $-174 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Gonzales County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 471 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $74k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 471 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.78%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,000
• List price: $99,500
• Delta: -45.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
901 E Central Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,986 (+5%)	1mo	$85,000	$43	68
608 Franklin	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,108 (+12%)	20mo	$60,000	$28	46
705 E 4th St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,160 (+14%)	22mo	$199,500	$92	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $19,669
• Equity at exit: $28,025

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $59,580
• Equity at exit: $33,004

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78140

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,429 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,396/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $966

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 471 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 470 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 469 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 468 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 466 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 462 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 461 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,500 Active 460 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,500 Active 457 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,500 Active 456 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 455 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 454 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 453 DOM
14. 2025-08-21
    price $99,500 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Charming older home on a corner lot with Mature trees. Great Starter home that needs some TLC.

15. 2025-08-20
    price $99,500 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Charming older home on a corner lot with mature trees. Great Starter home that needs some TLC.

16. 2025-08-09
    price $109,500 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Charming older home on a corner lot with mature trees. Great Starter home that needs some TLC.

17. 2025-07-05
    price $119,500 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Charming older home on a corner lot with mature trees. Great Starter home that needs some TLC.

18. 2025-07-05
    status Back on Market 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Charming older home on a corner lot with mature trees. Great Starter home that needs some TLC.

19. 2025-07-05
    price $119,500 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Charming older home on a corner lot with mature trees. Great Starter home that needs some TLC.

20. 2025-07-04
    historical 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Charming older home on a corner lot with Mature trees. Great Starter home that needs some TLC.

21. 2025-03-03
    listed $150,000 New 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Charming older home on a corner lot with Mature trees. Great Starter home that needs some TLC.

22. 2024-12-30
    price $150,000 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Charming older home on a corner lot with mature trees. Great Starter home that needs some TLC.

23. 2024-08-23
    listed $160,000 Active 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Charming older home on a corner lot with mature trees. Great Starter home that needs some TLC.

24. 2016-07-18
    soldstatus
25. 2011-09-09
    soldstatus
26. 2011-09-06
    soldstatus $73,500
27. 2011-07-07
    listed $74,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,396 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,396 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$2,396
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,372
• − Management: −$1,372
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $3,046
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$731
• After-tax cash flow: $3,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nixon-Smiley CISD
• NCES district ID: 4832740
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,887
• Composite: 32.6/100
• National rank: #5674
• State rank: #451 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nixon

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #15855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nixon, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,190

Population outlook (Gonzales County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,246 people
• By 2030: 23,060 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 24,661 · +10.9%
• By 2050: 26,046 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 29,289 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 30,112 · +35.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% White 27% Two or more races 23% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Gonzales

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.8) · D 22.3% · R 77.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.4pp · 2024: -54.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.8 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+30.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Current HPI: 151.751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+33.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $99,500 LERA
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $99,500 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $109,500 CTXMLS
• 2025-07-05 Price Changed $119,500 LERA
• 2025-07-05 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-07-05 Price Changed $119,500 CTXMLS
• 2025-07-04 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-03-03 Listed $150,000 LERA
• 2024-12-30 Price Changed $150,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-08-23 Listed $160,000 CTXMLS
• 2016-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-09-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-09-06 Sold (MLS) $73,500 CTXMLS
• 2011-07-07 Listed $74,500 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,396 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.