5301 Blair Rd NE · Washington, DC 20011

$325,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1910 6,500 sqft lot Est $613k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Exceptional Rebuild Opportunity in Chillum/Brightwood! SOLD STRICTLY AS-IS! This corner lot property presents a rare chance to start fresh and build new in one of NE DC’s most central locations. The existing home includes 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, but the structure has extensive interior damage and significant portions are beyond repair, making this property an ideal candidate for a complete teardown and custom rebuild. The lot offers great potential and is conveniently located near shopping, schools, and commuter routes. An oversized detached two-car garage with a full second level adds extra value and versatility—perfect for storage, a workshop, or future renovation. All sh

Key facts

• Custom rebuild
• Corner lot
• 6,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CUSTOM REBUILD
• OVERSIZED DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $315k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Coolidge Hs (1,015 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,182/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 3020% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.95%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $613,456
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5608 1st St NE	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (-1%)	7mo	$659,700	$402	74
31 Mcdonald Pl NE	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,780 (+7%)	6mo	$525,000	$295	67
5506 Blair Rd NE	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,880 (+13%)	8mo	$695,000	$370	56
6021 North Dakota Ave NW	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,737 (+4%)	4mo	$650,000	$374	52
5520 North Capitol St NW	0.18mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,902 (+14%)	11mo	$510,000	$268	52
129 Hamilton St NW	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-9%)	15mo	$470,000	$309	49
6118 Sligo Mill Rd NE	0.63mi	3/— (-1)	1,855 (+11%)	4mo	$682,500	$368	44
203 Peabody St NW	0.63mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,799 (+8%)	1mo	$703,000	$391	43
214 Oneida St NE	0.49mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,760 (+6%)	16mo	$595,000	$338	39
5911 4th St NW	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,844 (+11%)	7mo	$685,000	$371	37
315 Quackenbos St NE	0.63mi	4/3.0	1,917 (+15%)	12mo	$534,000	$279	28
6212 New Hampshire Ave NE	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,856 (+11%)	15mo	$405,000	$218	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $8,370
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $68,776
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State District of Columbia: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Washington: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43

Rent Stabilization Program; TOPA gives tenants right of first refusal.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20011

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,182 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$878
• Net cashflow: $1,058

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5520 N Capitol St NW Washington, DC	4.0	3.5	2070	$5,399	$2.61	4d	1	0.21mi
118 Longfellow St NW Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1803	$7,804	$4.33	1d	1	0.34mi
5201 2nd St NW Unit A Washington, DC	4.0	2.5	2000	$4,000	$2.00	24d	1	0.35mi
317 Riggs Rd NE Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	2040	$3,950	$1.94	19d	1	0.36mi
317 Riggs Rd NE Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	2040	$3,950	$1.94	18d	1	0.36mi
207 Kennedy St NW Washington, DC	5.0	2.5	1537	$6,600	$4.29	1d	1	0.40mi
225 Missouri Ave NW Washington, DC	5.0	4.5	2138	$7,100	$3.32	1d	1	0.43mi
4607 N Capitol St NE Washington, DC	3.0	1.5	1536	$2,975	$1.94	24d	1	0.51mi
5370 Chillum Pl NE Washington, DC	4.0	2.5	1088	$4,400	$4.04	24d	1	0.53mi
607 Jefferson St NE Washington, DC	3.0	1.5	1200	$3,295	$2.75	4d	1	0.55mi
12 Hawaii Ave NE Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1650	$4,000	$2.42	24d	1	0.55mi
66 Allison St NE Unit 66 Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1545	$3,500	$2.27	24d	1	0.57mi
242 Emerson St NW Washington, DC	4.0	2.5	1800	$3,775	$2.10	18d	1	0.58mi
5404 4th St NW #2 Washington, DC	4.0	3.5	2250	$5,900	$2.62	4d	1	0.60mi
5404 4th St NW #1 Washington, DC	4.0	4.5	2250	$5,500	$2.44	4d	1	0.60mi
612 Totten Pl NE Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	1876	$3,700	$1.97	24d	1	0.66mi
5802 8th St NE Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1534	$3,300	$2.15	24d	1	0.67mi
775 Oglethorpe St NE Washington, DC	4.0	2.5	1700	$3,450	$2.03	12d	1	0.67mi
424 Missouri Ave NW #4 Washington, DC	3.0	3.0	1500	$4,500	$3.00	24d	1	0.70mi
5042 8th St NE Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1479	$3,295	$2.23	24d	1	0.74mi
521 Kennedy St NW #4 Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1333	$3,250	$2.44	24d	1	0.75mi
139 Hawaii Ave NE Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1728	$3,600	$2.08	15d	1	0.75mi
440 Delafield Pl NW Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1564	$3,400	$2.17	18d	1	0.75mi
440 Delafield Pl NW Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	1564	$3,400	$2.17	18d	1	0.75mi
5030 South Dakota Ave NE Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1600	$6,200	$3.88	1d	1	0.76mi
733 Crittenden St NE Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1886	$3,300	$1.75	24d	1	0.82mi
41 Tuckerman St NW Washington, DC	3.0	1.5	1088	$3,000	$2.76	24d	1	0.88mi
1033 Higgins Way Unit 1 Hyattsville, MD	4.0	3.5	1424	$3,000	$2.11	5d	1	0.89mi
1002 Chillum Rd Hyattsville, MD	4.0	2.0	2232	$3,000	$1.34	43d	1	0.91mi
4969 12th St NE Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1674	$2,900	$1.73	24d	1	0.96mi
6416 Blair Rd NW Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1240	$3,100	$2.50	7d	1	0.97mi
5326 9th St NW Unit 1 Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	1547	$4,500	$2.91	18d	1	1.02mi
801 Cox Ave Hyattsville, MD	3.0	2.0	1169	$3,100	$2.65	18d	1	1.03mi
4823 9th St NW Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	2144	$3,750	$1.75	5d	1	1.05mi
310 Taylor St NW Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1728	$4,200	$2.43	24d	1	1.08mi
4312 10th St NE Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1602	$3,900	$2.43	7d	1	1.15mi
6302 7th St NW Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1581	$3,825	$2.42	12d	1	1.15mi
4450 Joseph Pl NE Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1460	$4,095	$2.80	24d	1	1.18mi
4605 Georgia Ave NW Washington, DC	4.0	3.0	2000	$4,500	$2.25	7d	1	1.20mi
5601 13th St NW Washington, DC	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	862	$5,008	$5.81	3d	21	1.21mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   price $325,000
3. 2026-03-13
   status Active
4. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-27
   listed $350,000 Active
6. 2026-01-27
   historical
7. 2026-01-23
   status Active
8. 2026-01-09
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2025-11-06
   listed $350,000 Active
10. 2022-12-23
    status Pending
11. 2022-12-23
    historical
12. 2022-12-16
    listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,015
• − Management: −$4,015
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $8,000
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,920
• After-tax cash flow: $10,778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: District Of Columbia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1100030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,671
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9606
• State rank: #8 of 32 in DC

Livability — Washington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #5327

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Washington, DC
• County: District of Columbia · 671,873 people
• City population: 671,873
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 67,434
• Household income: $110,309
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3020.0

Population outlook (District of Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 821,926 people
• By 2030: 899,517 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 1,061,162 · +29.1%
• By 2050: 1,231,493 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 1,603,312 · +95.1%
• By 2100: 1,847,141 · +124.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% Hispanic / Latino 23% White 20% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · District of Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+86.1) · D 91.2% · R 5.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 85.9pp · 2024: 86.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+86.1 2020: D+86.8 2016: D+88.7 2012: D+84.2 2008: D+85.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -755.96%
• Current HPI: 378.1083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in DC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$153B
▸Life Sciences / Industrials	1	$25B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$8B

Price history

+8.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $325,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $350,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-23 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-09 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $350,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-16 Listed $300,000 BRIGHT MLS