2412 Foothill Blvd #173 · Calistoga, CA 94515

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · Manufactured · 233 Days on market

Built 1996 $113/sqft · at area comps Est $153k · at est. ↓ 33% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the heart of NAPA VALLEY, this bright and inviting home offers comfort, convenience, and the charm of Calistoga's highly desirable 55+ community, Rancho de Calistoga. Step inside to find natural light flowing through plantation shutters, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The large patio and open layout includes spacious living and dining areas, perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. Come enjoy the quiet setting and community lifestyle Rancho de Calistoga is known for. Residents have access to a newly built clubhouse, pool, spa, fitness center, and a calendar full of social activities. All of this just minutes from downtown Calistoga's world-class wineries, restaurants, and shops.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Spa
• Plantation shutters

Tags

• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• LARGE PATIO
• NEWLY BUILT CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• SPA
• FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.9% vs local median 2.4% in Calistoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#448 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Calistoga Joint Unified (town): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #624 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.77%
• DSCR: 3.79
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,000
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -1.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2412 Foothill Blvd #173	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,332 (0%)	1mo	$135,000	$101	99
2412 Foothill Blvd #41	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+1%)	3mo	$164,000	$122	91
2412 Foothill Blvd #20	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-8%)	10mo	$155,000	$126	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $115,612
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.69×
• Total profit: $280,792
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94515

• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,935 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $753/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$826
• Net cashflow: $2,197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,154

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1612 Grant St Calistoga, CA	3.0	2.0	1625	$3,795	$2.34	44d	1	0.69mi
2014 Tablerock Ct Calistoga, CA	3.0	2.0	1459	$4,095	$2.81	14d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 716-char remark

   Show marketing remark (716 chars)

   Located in the heart of NAPA VALLEY, this bright and inviting home offers comfort, convenience, and the charm of Calistoga's highly desirable 55+ community, Rancho de Calistoga. Step inside to find natural light flowing through plantation shutters, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The large patio and open layout includes spacious living and dining areas, perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. Come enjoy the quiet setting and community lifestyle Rancho de Calistoga is known for. Residents have access to a newly built clubhouse, pool, spa, fitness center, and a calendar full of social activities. All of this just minutes from downtown Calistoga's world-class wineries, restaurants, and shops.

2. 2026-05-04
   historical Contingent (Show) 716-char remark

   Show marketing remark (716 chars)

   Located in the heart of NAPA VALLEY, this bright and inviting home offers comfort, convenience, and the charm of Calistoga's highly desirable 55+ community, Rancho de Calistoga. Step inside to find natural light flowing through plantation shutters, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The large patio and open layout includes spacious living and dining areas, perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. Come enjoy the quiet setting and community lifestyle Rancho de Calistoga is known for. Residents have access to a newly built clubhouse, pool, spa, fitness center, and a calendar full of social activities. All of this just minutes from downtown Calistoga's world-class wineries, restaurants, and shops.

3. 2026-04-02
   status Active 716-char remark

   Show marketing remark (716 chars)

   Located in the heart of NAPA VALLEY, this bright and inviting home offers comfort, convenience, and the charm of Calistoga's highly desirable 55+ community, Rancho de Calistoga. Step inside to find natural light flowing through plantation shutters, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The large patio and open layout includes spacious living and dining areas, perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. Come enjoy the quiet setting and community lifestyle Rancho de Calistoga is known for. Residents have access to a newly built clubhouse, pool, spa, fitness center, and a calendar full of social activities. All of this just minutes from downtown Calistoga's world-class wineries, restaurants, and shops.

4. 2026-02-27
   historical Contingent (Show) 716-char remark

   Show marketing remark (716 chars)

   Located in the heart of NAPA VALLEY, this bright and inviting home offers comfort, convenience, and the charm of Calistoga's highly desirable 55+ community, Rancho de Calistoga. Step inside to find natural light flowing through plantation shutters, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The large patio and open layout includes spacious living and dining areas, perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. Come enjoy the quiet setting and community lifestyle Rancho de Calistoga is known for. Residents have access to a newly built clubhouse, pool, spa, fitness center, and a calendar full of social activities. All of this just minutes from downtown Calistoga's world-class wineries, restaurants, and shops.

5. 2026-02-15
   price $150,000 716-char remark

   Show marketing remark (716 chars)

   Located in the heart of NAPA VALLEY, this bright and inviting home offers comfort, convenience, and the charm of Calistoga's highly desirable 55+ community, Rancho de Calistoga. Step inside to find natural light flowing through plantation shutters, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The large patio and open layout includes spacious living and dining areas, perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. Come enjoy the quiet setting and community lifestyle Rancho de Calistoga is known for. Residents have access to a newly built clubhouse, pool, spa, fitness center, and a calendar full of social activities. All of this just minutes from downtown Calistoga's world-class wineries, restaurants, and shops.

6. 2025-09-22
   listed $169,000 Active 716-char remark

   Show marketing remark (716 chars)

   Located in the heart of NAPA VALLEY, this bright and inviting home offers comfort, convenience, and the charm of Calistoga's highly desirable 55+ community, Rancho de Calistoga. Step inside to find natural light flowing through plantation shutters, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The large patio and open layout includes spacious living and dining areas, perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. Come enjoy the quiet setting and community lifestyle Rancho de Calistoga is known for. Residents have access to a newly built clubhouse, pool, spa, fitness center, and a calendar full of social activities. All of this just minutes from downtown Calistoga's world-class wineries, restaurants, and shops.

7. 2025-01-18
   status Active
8. 2025-01-07
   historical Contingent (Show)
9. 2024-08-05
   price $195,000
10. 2024-06-06
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $753 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,140 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$387/yr (+$32/mo · 51.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$753
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,778
• − Management: −$3,778
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $25,400
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,096
• After-tax cash flow: $20,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calistoga Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607020
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,716
• Composite: 39.48/100
• National rank: #8101
• State rank: #624 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Calistoga

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #15176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calistoga, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,921

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 34% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -476.46%
• Current HPI: 244.6548
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — BAREIS
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-02-27 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $150,000 BAREIS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $169,000 BAREIS
• 2025-01-18 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-01-07 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $195,000 BAREIS
• 2024-06-06 Listed $225,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $753 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.