26785 N Dark Sky Dr · Paulden, AZ 86334

$294,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,074 sqft · Manufactured public records · 167 Days on market

Built 2005 2.00 ac lot $142/sqft · 16% below area Est $351k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

$5,000 price drop and a 2% credit to the buyer to use as you choose (loan and closing costs, inspections, appraisal, maintenance, or repair, take your pick). This is a Motivated Seller!!! PRICE DROPPED TO ROCK BOTTOM FOR QUICK SALE!!! You won't want to miss this 2-acre horse property located in Paulden, AZ. If you've been wanting a getaway of your own where you can do what you want, when you want, with no HOA then this is it. This 2074 square foot single level home features 5 bedrooms and 3 full baths. The Seller won't be making any repairs at this price, but this is your chance to get a 2-acre horse property for less than $145 per square foot. Just a few minutes to the True Value and the closest shopping center. On a mostly level lot, the possibilities are endless. There's plenty of room to build stalls and even a large barn. Park all your toys and enjoy life. This property is less than 35 minutes from the airport and 23 minutes to Safeway. The owner recently replaced the roof, so you'll have years of worry-free living. This is Country Living.

Key facts

• Horse property
• Mostly level lot
• Peaceful setting

Tags

• HORSE PROPERTY
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• NO HOA
• MOSTLY LEVEL LOT
• ROOM TO BUILD STALLS
• LARGE BARN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-317 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.0% in Paulden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#202 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Chino Valley Unified District (4474) (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #112 of 249 in AZ (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $294k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,021 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,506
• List price: $294,000
• Delta: -16.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-67,817
• Equity at exit: $43,836

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-84,943
• Equity at exit: $25,420

Cash invested: $82,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86334

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,542
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$368 /mo · $4,410/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,572

Max offer price $248,086

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-114	-5% $-216	+0% $-317	+5% $-419	+10% $-520
Rent	-10% $-489	-5% $-403	+0% $-317	+5% $-232	+10% $-146
Rate	-1.0pp $-169	-0.5pp $-243	base $-317	+0.5pp $-393	+1.0pp $-471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,500
• Closing costs: $8,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,000 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,000 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,000 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $294,000 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $294,000 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $294,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $295,000 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,000 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $295,000 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 152 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 151 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 150 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 149 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $295,000 Active 148 DOM
18. 2026-04-02
    price $295,000 1060-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1060 chars)

    $5,000 price drop and a 2% credit to the buyer to use as you choose (loan and closing costs, inspections, appraisal, maintenance, or repair, take your pick). This is a Motivated Seller!!! PRICE DROPPED TO ROCK BOTTOM FOR QUICK SALE!!! You won't want to miss this 2-acre horse property located in Paulden, AZ. If you've been wanting a getaway of your own where you can do what you want, when you want, with no HOA then this is it. This 2074 square foot single level home features 5 bedrooms and 3 full baths. The Seller won't be making any repairs at this price, but this is your chance to get a 2-acre horse property for less than $145 per square foot. Just a few minutes to the True Value and the closest shopping center. On a mostly level lot, the possibilities are endless. There's plenty of room to build stalls and even a large barn. Park all your toys and enjoy life. This property is less than 35 minutes from the airport and 23 minutes to Safeway. The owner recently replaced the roof, so you'll have years of worry-free living. This is Country Living.

19. 2026-04-02
    price $295,000 1060-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1060 chars)

    $5,000 price drop and a 2% credit to the buyer to use as you choose (loan and closing costs, inspections, appraisal, maintenance, or repair, take your pick). This is a Motivated Seller!!! PRICE DROPPED TO ROCK BOTTOM FOR QUICK SALE!!! You won't want to miss this 2-acre horse property located in Paulden, AZ. If you've been wanting a getaway of your own where you can do what you want, when you want, with no HOA then this is it. This 2074 square foot single level home features 5 bedrooms and 3 full baths. The Seller won't be making any repairs at this price, but this is your chance to get a 2-acre horse property for less than $145 per square foot. Just a few minutes to the True Value and the closest shopping center. On a mostly level lot, the possibilities are endless. There's plenty of room to build stalls and even a large barn. Park all your toys and enjoy life. This property is less than 35 minutes from the airport and 23 minutes to Safeway. The owner recently replaced the roof, so you'll have years of worry-free living. This is Country Living.

20. 2026-03-10
    price $299,900 1060-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1060 chars)

    $5,000 price drop and a 2% credit to the buyer to use as you choose (loan and closing costs, inspections, appraisal, maintenance, or repair, take your pick). This is a Motivated Seller!!! PRICE DROPPED TO ROCK BOTTOM FOR QUICK SALE!!! You won't want to miss this 2-acre horse property located in Paulden, AZ. If you've been wanting a getaway of your own where you can do what you want, when you want, with no HOA then this is it. This 2074 square foot single level home features 5 bedrooms and 3 full baths. The Seller won't be making any repairs at this price, but this is your chance to get a 2-acre horse property for less than $145 per square foot. Just a few minutes to the True Value and the closest shopping center. On a mostly level lot, the possibilities are endless. There's plenty of room to build stalls and even a large barn. Park all your toys and enjoy life. This property is less than 35 minutes from the airport and 23 minutes to Safeway. The owner recently replaced the roof, so you'll have years of worry-free living. This is Country Living.

21. 2026-03-10
    price $299,900 1060-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1060 chars)

    $5,000 price drop and a 2% credit to the buyer to use as you choose (loan and closing costs, inspections, appraisal, maintenance, or repair, take your pick). This is a Motivated Seller!!! PRICE DROPPED TO ROCK BOTTOM FOR QUICK SALE!!! You won't want to miss this 2-acre horse property located in Paulden, AZ. If you've been wanting a getaway of your own where you can do what you want, when you want, with no HOA then this is it. This 2074 square foot single level home features 5 bedrooms and 3 full baths. The Seller won't be making any repairs at this price, but this is your chance to get a 2-acre horse property for less than $145 per square foot. Just a few minutes to the True Value and the closest shopping center. On a mostly level lot, the possibilities are endless. There's plenty of room to build stalls and even a large barn. Park all your toys and enjoy life. This property is less than 35 minutes from the airport and 23 minutes to Safeway. The owner recently replaced the roof, so you'll have years of worry-free living. This is Country Living.

22. 2026-02-23
    price $317,500 1060-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1060 chars)

    $5,000 price drop and a 2% credit to the buyer to use as you choose (loan and closing costs, inspections, appraisal, maintenance, or repair, take your pick). This is a Motivated Seller!!! PRICE DROPPED TO ROCK BOTTOM FOR QUICK SALE!!! You won't want to miss this 2-acre horse property located in Paulden, AZ. If you've been wanting a getaway of your own where you can do what you want, when you want, with no HOA then this is it. This 2074 square foot single level home features 5 bedrooms and 3 full baths. The Seller won't be making any repairs at this price, but this is your chance to get a 2-acre horse property for less than $145 per square foot. Just a few minutes to the True Value and the closest shopping center. On a mostly level lot, the possibilities are endless. There's plenty of room to build stalls and even a large barn. Park all your toys and enjoy life. This property is less than 35 minutes from the airport and 23 minutes to Safeway. The owner recently replaced the roof, so you'll have years of worry-free living. This is Country Living.

23. 2026-02-23
    price $317,500 1060-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1060 chars)

    $5,000 price drop and a 2% credit to the buyer to use as you choose (loan and closing costs, inspections, appraisal, maintenance, or repair, take your pick). This is a Motivated Seller!!! PRICE DROPPED TO ROCK BOTTOM FOR QUICK SALE!!! You won't want to miss this 2-acre horse property located in Paulden, AZ. If you've been wanting a getaway of your own where you can do what you want, when you want, with no HOA then this is it. This 2074 square foot single level home features 5 bedrooms and 3 full baths. The Seller won't be making any repairs at this price, but this is your chance to get a 2-acre horse property for less than $145 per square foot. Just a few minutes to the True Value and the closest shopping center. On a mostly level lot, the possibilities are endless. There's plenty of room to build stalls and even a large barn. Park all your toys and enjoy life. This property is less than 35 minutes from the airport and 23 minutes to Safeway. The owner recently replaced the roof, so you'll have years of worry-free living. This is Country Living.

24. 2026-01-02
    listed $329,000 Active 1060-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1060 chars)

    $5,000 price drop and a 2% credit to the buyer to use as you choose (loan and closing costs, inspections, appraisal, maintenance, or repair, take your pick). This is a Motivated Seller!!! PRICE DROPPED TO ROCK BOTTOM FOR QUICK SALE!!! You won't want to miss this 2-acre horse property located in Paulden, AZ. If you've been wanting a getaway of your own where you can do what you want, when you want, with no HOA then this is it. This 2074 square foot single level home features 5 bedrooms and 3 full baths. The Seller won't be making any repairs at this price, but this is your chance to get a 2-acre horse property for less than $145 per square foot. Just a few minutes to the True Value and the closest shopping center. On a mostly level lot, the possibilities are endless. There's plenty of room to build stalls and even a large barn. Park all your toys and enjoy life. This property is less than 35 minutes from the airport and 23 minutes to Safeway. The owner recently replaced the roof, so you'll have years of worry-free living. This is Country Living.

25. 2026-01-02
    listed $329,000 Active 1060-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1060 chars)

    $5,000 price drop and a 2% credit to the buyer to use as you choose (loan and closing costs, inspections, appraisal, maintenance, or repair, take your pick). This is a Motivated Seller!!! PRICE DROPPED TO ROCK BOTTOM FOR QUICK SALE!!! You won't want to miss this 2-acre horse property located in Paulden, AZ. If you've been wanting a getaway of your own where you can do what you want, when you want, with no HOA then this is it. This 2074 square foot single level home features 5 bedrooms and 3 full baths. The Seller won't be making any repairs at this price, but this is your chance to get a 2-acre horse property for less than $145 per square foot. Just a few minutes to the True Value and the closest shopping center. On a mostly level lot, the possibilities are endless. There's plenty of room to build stalls and even a large barn. Park all your toys and enjoy life. This property is less than 35 minutes from the airport and 23 minutes to Safeway. The owner recently replaced the roof, so you'll have years of worry-free living. This is Country Living.

26. 2025-09-06
    price $335,000
27. 2025-08-17
    price $340,000
28. 2025-08-04
    price $345,000
29. 2025-07-27
    price $349,000
30. 2025-07-19
    status Active
31. 2025-07-18
    historical Active Under Contract
32. 2025-07-18
    price $350,000
33. 2025-07-17
    price $360,000
34. 2025-07-17
    status Active
35. 2025-06-04
    historical Active Under Contract
36. 2025-05-23
    status Active
37. 2025-05-22
    historical
38. 2025-05-19
    historical
39. 2025-04-24
    listed $350,000 Active
40. 2016-04-29
    soldstatus $82,500
41. 2016-04-29
    soldstatus $82,500
42. 2012-03-30
    soldstatus $59,000
43. 2005-12-22
    soldstatus $30,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,469
• − Property taxes: −$4,410
• − Insurance: −$1,470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − Depreciation: −$8,553
• Taxable loss: −$9,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,166
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chino Valley Unified District (4474)
• NCES district ID: 0400003
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,429
• Composite: 25.22/100
• National rank: #7505
• State rank: #112 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Paulden

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #20477

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paulden, AZ
• City population: 4,309
• Population (ZIP): 4,309

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.07%
• Current HPI: 433.9478
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+867.2% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $295,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $295,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $299,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $299,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $317,500 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $317,500 ARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $329,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $329,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $335,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-17 Price Changed $340,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $345,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-27 Price Changed $349,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-19 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Contingent — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $350,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $360,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Contingent — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-19 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-24 Listed $350,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 2016-04-29 Sold (MLS) $82,500 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-30 Sold (MLS) $59,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $30,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $397 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.