Paramount Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$269,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · SingleFamily · 147 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the perfect balance of style, comfort, and functionality in this thoughtfully designed single-story home. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage, this plan offers everything your family needs - and more. Step into the open-concept great room, where natural light fills the space and seamlessly connects to the kitchen and dining area - ideal for entertaining or casual family meals. The primary suite is tucked away for privacy, complete with a luxurious ensuite bath and generous walk-in closet. Choose from optional layouts, including a spa-inspired bath or walk-in shower with seat, to create your perfect retreat.

Key facts

• Flexible game room
• Natural light
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT
• FLEXIBLE GAME ROOM
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $342,787.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-715 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 621 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 50d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,371 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.94%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,787
• List price: $269,990
• Delta: -21.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21639 County Road 850	0.59mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,980 (-5%)	4mo	$515,000	$260	52
306 Mercer Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,320 (+12%)	1mo	$319,900	$138	42
310 Mercer Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,320 (+12%)	1mo	$319,900	$138	41
201 East St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,860 (-11%)	15mo	$374,999	$202	41
315 East St	0.75mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,085 (+0%)	23mo	$339,900	$163	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $141,191
• Equity at exit: $308,810

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $451,652
• Equity at exit: $665,960

Cash invested: $95,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 78 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 27.5 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $285,990 ($152/sqft)
• Median days on market: 126 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 621
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,798
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$428 /mo · $5,142/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-715

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,999

Max offer price $239,341

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-478	-5% $-596	+0% $-715	+5% $-833	+10% $-952
Rent	-10% $-880	-5% $-798	+0% $-715	+5% $-632	+10% $-549
Rate	-1.0pp $-542	-0.5pp $-628	base $-715	+0.5pp $-804	+1.0pp $-894

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,697
• Closing costs: $10,284
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	112d	1	0.22mi
414 Main St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,500	$0.87	83d	1	0.51mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	165d	1	0.74mi
629 Dunham Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2089	$1,995	$0.96	38d	1	0.86mi
629 Dunham Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2089	$1,995	$0.96	43d	1	0.86mi
310 Pennington Rd Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1977	$1,900	$0.96	70d	1	0.86mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	134d	1	0.91mi
315 Pennington Rd Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1736	$2,399	$1.38	0d	1	0.91mi
902 Lexington Ln Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,700	$1.04	9d	1	0.91mi
629 Dunhill Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2089	$1,989	$0.95	2d	1	0.91mi
625 Dunhill Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1791	$2,000	$1.12	3d	1	0.91mi
621 Dunhill Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2235	$2,095	$0.94	37d	1	0.91mi
621 Dunhill Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2235	$2,095	$0.94	35d	1	0.91mi
602 East St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$1,950	$1.06	65d	1	0.94mi
833 Lexington Ln Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,700	$1.16	9d	1	0.96mi
305 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,410	$0.83	3d	1	1.01mi
716 Mallard Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$2,000	$0.94	51d	1	1.02mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$1,750	$0.96	10d	1	1.03mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	49d	1	1.03mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	113d	1	1.03mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$1,750	$0.96	31d	1	1.03mi
313 Plum Dr Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,581	$0.87	7d	1	1.11mi
617 Edge Hill Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2235	$2,095	$0.94	38d	1	1.11mi
617 Edge Hill Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2235	$2,095	$0.94	40d	1	1.11mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,800	$1.13	85d	1	1.12mi
617 Edge Hill LN Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2235	$2,399	$1.07	87d	1	1.12mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	95d	1	1.13mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	148d	1	1.13mi
500 Shady Bank Way Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	2229	$2,275	$1.02	0d	1	1.15mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	151d	1	1.19mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	153d	1	1.19mi
805 Martingale Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,300	$1.19	130d	1	1.20mi
511 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,100	$1.45	0d	1	1.21mi
819 Rustic Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,000	$1.11	124d	1	1.24mi
1117 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	5.0	2.5	1954	$2,095	$1.07	184d	1	1.24mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	184d	1	1.25mi
1128 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,650	$1.15	0d	1	1.26mi
1128 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,650	$1.15	12d	1	1.26mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,750	$1.12	77d	1	1.28mi
1216 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2090	$1,939	$0.93	0d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $269,990 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $269,990 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $269,990 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $269,990 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $269,990 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $269,990 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $269,990 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $269,990 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $269,990 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $269,990 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $269,990 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $269,990 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $269,990 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $269,990 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $269,990 Active 132 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $269,990 Active 131 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $269,990 Active 130 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $269,990 Active 129 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $269,990 Active 128 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $269,990 Active 127 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $269,990 Active 126 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $269,990 Active 125 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $269,990 Active 124 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $269,990 Active 123 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $269,990 Active 122 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $269,990 Active 121 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $269,990 Active 120 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $269,990 Active 119 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $269,990 Active 118 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $269,990 Active 117 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $269,990 Active 116 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $269,990 Active 115 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $269,990 Active 114 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $269,990 Active 113 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $269,990 Active 112 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 111 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $269,990 Active 110 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $269,990 Active 109 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $269,990 Active 108 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $269,990 Active 107 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $269,990 Active 106 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $269,990 Active 105 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $269,990 Active 104 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $269,990 Active 103 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $269,990 Active 102 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $269,990 Active 101 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $269,990 Active 100 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $269,990 Active 99 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $269,990 Active 98 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $269,990 Active 97 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,201
• − Property taxes: −$5,142
• − Insurance: −$1,714
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − Depreciation: −$9,972
• Taxable loss: −$14,925
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,582
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 19 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,400–$31,200 screening

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a spacious layout, making it an ideal choice for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• County: Collin · 1,210,074 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284
• Household income: $100,373
• Rent vs Own: 6.7% rent · 93.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B