Paramount Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$289,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the perfect balance of style, comfort, and functionality in this thoughtfully designed single-story home. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage, this plan offers everything your family needs - and more. Step into the open-concept great room, where natural light fills the space and seamlessly connects to the kitchen and dining area - ideal for entertaining or casual family meals. The primary suite is tucked away for privacy, complete with a luxurious ensuite bath and generous walk-in closet. Choose from optional layouts, including a spa-inspired bath or walk-in shower with seat, to create your perfect retreat. A flexible game room provides a versatile space fo

Key facts

• Flexible game room
• Natural light
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT
• FLEXIBLE GAME ROOM
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $342,378.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-528 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,694 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.61%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,378
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -15.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 East St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,860 (-11%)	11mo	$374,999	$202	45
315 East St	0.75mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,085 (+0%)	18mo	$339,900	$163	44
101 Monarch	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,876 (-10%)	21mo	$372,700	$199	40
200 Swallowtail Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,160 (+4%)	23mo	$395,000	$183	40
104 Swallowtail	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-14%)	23mo	$378,500	$210	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $152,886
• Equity at exit: $308,442

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $476,731
• Equity at exit: $665,166

Cash invested: $95,866 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,327 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,795
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$428 /mo · $5,136/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,995

Max offer price $266,002

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-291	-5% $-410	+0% $-528	+5% $-646	+10% $-764
Rent	-10% $-712	-5% $-620	+0% $-528	+5% $-436	+10% $-344
Rate	-1.0pp $-355	-0.5pp $-441	base $-528	+0.5pp $-617	+1.0pp $-707

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,595
• Closing costs: $10,271
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	0d	1	0.22mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	26d	1	0.74mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	0.91mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	1.12mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	9d	1	1.13mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	14d	1	1.19mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	12d	1	1.19mi
1117 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	5.0	2.5	1954	$2,095	$1.07	45d	1	1.24mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	45d	1	1.25mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	4d	1	1.28mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	1d	1	1.31mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	1.31mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	7d	1	1.31mi
601 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2090	$2,075	$0.99	45d	1	1.34mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	0d	1	1.36mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,350	$1.00	15d	1	1.43mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	8d	1	1.43mi
304 Red Stream Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	21d	1	1.44mi
1208 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,095	$1.00	45d	1	1.45mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	26d	1	1.48mi
1216 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,000	$1.24	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,990 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $289,990 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-05-15
   listed $289,990 Active 1085-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,179
• − Property taxes: −$5,136
• − Insurance: −$1,712
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,234
• − Management: −$2,234
• − Depreciation: −$9,960
• Taxable loss: −$12,531
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,007
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 19 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a spacious layout, making it an ideal choice for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B