18376 Nys Rte 177 · Adams Center, NY 13605

$184,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 574 Days on market

Built 1920 0.31 ac lot $123/sqft · 32% below area Est $270k · 32% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quality built in its time this 3 to 4 - bedroom 1-bath two story home with broad sun drenched enclosed front porch has that vintage character. Detached newer two stall garage and ample yard space. Come see all this well maintained home has to offer.

Key facts

• Vintage character
• Enclosed front porch
• Detached garage

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• VINTAGE CHARACTER
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-766/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#692 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment B; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• South Jefferson Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #420 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 574 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $153,668 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 574 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.48%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,177
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: -31.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13475 Us Route 11	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+12%)	19mo	$275,000	$163	46
18537 Minkler Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,303 (-13%)	19mo	$240,000	$184	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $96,660
• Equity at exit: $166,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $287,889
• Equity at exit: $359,220

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13605

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,537 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,774/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $175,664

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $64	-5% $0	+0% $-64	+5% $-128	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-125	+0% $-64	+5% $-3	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-17	base $-64	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-11-19
   status Active 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   Quality built in its time this 3 to 4 - bedroom 1-bath two story home with broad sun drenched enclosed front porch has that vintage character. Detached newer two stall garage and ample yard space. Come see all this well maintained home has to offer.

2. 2025-11-16
   historical Active Under Contract 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   Quality built in its time this 3 to 4 - bedroom 1-bath two story home with broad sun drenched enclosed front porch has that vintage character. Detached newer two stall garage and ample yard space. Come see all this well maintained home has to offer.

3. 2025-10-28
   price $184,900 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   Quality built in its time this 3 to 4 - bedroom 1-bath two story home with broad sun drenched enclosed front porch has that vintage character. Detached newer two stall garage and ample yard space. Come see all this well maintained home has to offer.

4. 2025-06-26
   price $189,000 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   Quality built in its time this 3 to 4 - bedroom 1-bath two story home with broad sun drenched enclosed front porch has that vintage character. Detached newer two stall garage and ample yard space. Come see all this well maintained home has to offer.

5. 2024-10-25
   listed $199,000 Active 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   Quality built in its time this 3 to 4 - bedroom 1-bath two story home with broad sun drenched enclosed front porch has that vintage character. Detached newer two stall garage and ample yard space. Come see all this well maintained home has to offer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,774
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$3,944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$947
• After-tax cash flow: $181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Jefferson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602340
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,872
• Composite: 41.27/100
• National rank: #3522
• State rank: #420 of 590 in NY

Livability — Adams Center

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #692
• US rank: #13098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adams Center, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,106

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.95%
• Current HPI: 354.8216
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-19 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-11-16 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $184,900 CNYIS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $189,000 CNYIS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $199,000 CNYIS