Sienna - Modern Plan · Mesquite, TX 75126

$299,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,093 sqft · SingleFamily · 177 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sienna Modern: Upscale 2 Story Townhouse Floor Plan floor plan highlights: 2 Car Garage, Versatile Loft, Extra Storage Space, Upper Floor Laundry for Ease, and more! Enter into the embrace of the Sienna Modern floor plan; a well-crafted 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom townhouse boasting 2,093 square feet of exquisitely designed living space. This two-story floor plan also offers the added convenience of a 2-car garage. The journey begins on the first floor, where a quaint entry porch beckons, leading you into an expansive living/kitchen/dining area suffused with natural light-ideal for hosting guests or relishing serene family evenings. The galley kitchen stands as a testament to culinary excellence, featuring a walk-in pantry and an island complete with a built-in sink and dishwasher. The owners' entry from the garage adds a touch of convenience, while a quaint powder room is located just off the garage entrance.

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Upper floor laundry
• Entry porch

Tags

• VERSATILE LOFT
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• UPPER FLOOR LAUNDRY
• ENTRY PORCH
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• OWNERS ENTRY FROM GARAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $397,448.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 4.3% in Mesquite — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson El (math 57% / reading 50%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 694 students, 36% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2639 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $212,869 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.48%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $397,448
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -28.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9808 Dahlia Blvd	0.11mi	3/2.0	2,106 (+1%)	2mo	$354,990	$169	90
9821 Dahlia Blvd	0.13mi	3/2.5	2,026 (-3%)	4mo	$344,990	$170	86
9717 Dahlia Blvd	0.07mi	3/2.0	2,107 (+1%)	10mo	$395,000	$187	86
9817 Dahlia Blvd	0.12mi	3/2.5	2,155 (+3%)	8mo	$372,989	$173	83
9508 Dahlia	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,174 (+4%)	4mo	$419,954	$193	82
9813 Flourishing Way	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,174 (+4%)	2mo	$379,968	$175	77
9312 Persimmon	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,984 (-5%)	4mo	$389,104	$196	74
9324 Laurel Wreath	0.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,984 (-5%)	11mo	$381,670	$192	70
9804 Dahlia Blvd	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,354 (+12%)	9mo	$422,000	$179	60
9208 Persimmon Ln	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,345 (+12%)	10mo	$399,000	$170	53
14115 Kelly Rd	0.64mi	3/3.0	2,304 (+10%)	20mo	$599,900	$260	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-135,534
• Equity at exit: $59,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -71.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.96×
• Total profit: $-218,477
• Equity at exit: $34,364

Cash invested: $111,285 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 54 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 32.4 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $392,490 ($173/sqft)
• Median days on market: 170 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2639
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,084
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$497 /mo · $5,962/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-1,065

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,477

Max offer price $243,341

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-790	-5% $-928	+0% $-1,065	+5% $-1,202	+10% $-1,340
Rent	-10% $-1,233	-5% $-1,149	+0% $-1,065	+5% $-981	+10% $-897
Rate	-1.0pp $-865	-0.5pp $-964	base $-1,065	+0.5pp $-1,168	+1.0pp $-1,273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,362
• Closing costs: $11,923
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4032 Eagle Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	54d	1	1.34mi
1968 Marble Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,350	$1.15	64d	1	1.36mi
2015 Angel Way Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,671	$1.19	71d	1	1.47mi
4009 Freedom St Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,800	$1.27	93d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $299,990 Active 175 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   price $299,990 Active 174 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $283,990 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $283,990 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $283,990 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $283,990 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $283,990 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $283,990 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $283,990 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $283,990 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $283,990 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $283,990 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $283,990 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $283,990 Active 159 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $283,990 Active 158 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $283,990 Active 156 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $283,990 Active 155 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $283,990 Active 154 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $283,990 Active 153 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $283,990 Active 152 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $283,990 Active 151 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $283,990 Active 150 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $283,990 Active 149 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $283,990 Active 148 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $283,990 Active 147 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $283,990 Active 145 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $283,990 Active 144 DOM
29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $283,990 Active 143 DOM
30. 2026-07-05
    days on market $283,990 Active 142 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $283,990 Active 141 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $283,990 Active 140 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $283,990 Active 139 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $283,990 Active 138 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $283,990 Active 137 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $283,990 Active 136 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $283,990 Active 135 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $283,990 Active 134 DOM
39. 2026-06-24
    days on market $283,990 Active 132 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $283,990 Active 130 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $283,990 Active 129 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $283,990 Active 126 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $283,990 Active 125 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $283,990 Active 124 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $283,990 Active 123 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $283,990 Active 121 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $283,990 Active 120 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    price $283,990 Active 117 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $285,990 Active 117 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,990 Active 116 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,263
• − Property taxes: −$5,962
• − Insurance: −$1,987
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,044
• − Management: −$2,044
• − Depreciation: −$11,562
• Taxable loss: −$20,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,876
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,465–$31,395 screening

This modern townhouse is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, flooring, and interior walls. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace blinds with energy-efficient window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Johnson El C TX #686/4,322 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Warren Middle D+ TX #443/1,662 Nat'l #4,335/14,009 High Forney H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $283,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Listed $283,988 Zillow