1203 Dakota Trl · Mandan, ND 58554

$40,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 8 Days on market

Built 2012 Good condition 4,600 sqft lot Est $48k · 17% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 4,600 sq ft lot
• Built 2012
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed ($671)
• HOA & community: Located in Gateway Mobile Home Park

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property
• Construction: Built with other construction materials
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Gas range; Range; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $690 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 27.0% vs local median 2.8% in Mandan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#76 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mandan 1 (suburban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #32 of 53 in ND (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mandan Middle School (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #21 of 35 statewide, top 59%, 928 students, 30% FRL); Mandan High School (math 18% / reading 42%, grade F, #90 of 144 statewide, top 66%, 1,138 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.0%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 94 units permitted in Morton County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morton County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $40,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.97%
• DSCR: 4.29
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $48,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1203 Dakota Trl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	0mo	$40,000	$36	100
1305 Pioneer Trl	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	4mo	$45,000	$43	83
1106 South Frontier Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	1mo	$55,000	$45	82
1205 South Frontier Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	7mo	$40,000	$38	80
1401 Pioneer Trl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	4mo	$59,900	$49	77
1203 Frontier Trl	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-6%)	13mo	$29,000	$27	70
105 Gateway Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+14%)	3mo	$30,000	$23	67
703 6th Ave SE Unit C16	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,140 (+2%)	7mo	$79,999	$70	57
403 E Prairie Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	3mo	$65,000	$53	52
405 Prairie Ln	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,076 (-4%)	8mo	$26,000	$24	50
105 Countryside Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+12%)	2mo	$66,000	$53	46
210 S Prairie Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	13mo	$25,000	$21	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $43,974
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.2%
• Equity multiple: 12.11×
• Total profit: $124,422
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58554

• Rents YoY: 14.0%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $690

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $718	-5% $704	+0% $690	+5% $677	+10% $663
Rent	-10% $594	-5% $642	+0% $690	+5% $739	+10% $787
Rate	-1.0pp $711	-0.5pp $701	base $690	+0.5pp $680	+1.0pp $669

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 1st St NW Mandan, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0	887	$1,150	$1.30	22d	11	0.79mi
406 4th St NW Mandan, ND	3.0	1.5	1208	$1,200	$0.99	22d	1	1.07mi
1504 Shannon Dr NE Mandan, ND	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	22d	1	1.10mi
611 9th Ave SW Mandan, ND	2.0	1.0	942	$1,125	$1.19	22d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $40,000 Active
2. 2026-01-13
   price $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,175
• − Management: −$1,175
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $8,132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,952
• After-tax cash flow: $6,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. It's move-in ready with a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting — refreshes interior and exterior
• Both new flooring — enhances living spaces and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — refreshes interior and exterior ↑
• Both new flooring — enhances living spaces and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mandan 1
• NCES district ID: 3811820
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,131
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5692
• State rank: #32 of 53 in ND

Livability — Mandan

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #7567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mandan, ND
• County: Morton County · 29,479 people
• City population: 29,479
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 29,479
• Household income: $80,120
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 915.0

Population outlook (Morton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,682 people
• By 2030: 39,967 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 46,921 · +27.9%
• By 2050: 54,157 · +47.6%
• By 2075: 73,661 · +100.8%
• By 2100: 89,885 · +145.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 4% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scotch-Irish 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.2% · R 75.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -21.0pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+50.4 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.81%
• Current HPI: 137.8984
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.00%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $40,000 GNMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $45,000 GNMLS