140 Red Fox Rd · Norwich, NY 13815

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 121 Days on market

Built 1970 2.23 ac lot Est $196k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Town of Norwich. Lovely 3-bedroom, 2 bath raised Ranch home on a generous 2.20 acres. Set well back from the road. Rooms are a good size. Extra kitchen in the basement with additional rooms. Attached garage with easy access to upstairs. Close by vehicle to all of the City of Norwich's amenities. Like the wonderful YMCA, Shopping, UHS Hospital, Bassett health care center, Restaurants, Parks, Etc. Norwich City School District. “Owner-occupied offers prioritized. HUD First Look Period applies for first 30 days. ” No owner financing or rent to own here.

Key facts

• Raised ranch home
• Attached garage
• Generous acres

Tags

• RAISED RANCH HOME
• GENEROUS ACRES
• EXTRA KITCHEN
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• CITY OF NORWICH AMENITIES
• NORWICH CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-76/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.1% in Norwich — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#447 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Norwich City School District (town): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #498 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $160k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,500
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
140 Red Fox Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,500 (0%)	1mo	$150,000	$100	99
5195 State Highway 23	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+12%)	1mo	$219,900	$131	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $86,796
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $256,032
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13815

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,110/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,475

Max offer price $158,882

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-07
   price $160,000
3. 2025-12-16
   listed $169,000 Active
4. 2022-02-04
   listed Active
5. 2015-07-15
   historical
6. 2014-11-10
   listed $225,000
7. 2012-10-15
   historical
8. 2011-10-20
   listed $159,000
9. 2011-10-15
   listed $159,000
10. 2010-01-06
    listed $160,000
11. 2009-05-13
    listed $150,000
12. 2007-08-31
    soldstatus $100,000
13. 2007-08-31
    soldstatus $100,000
14. 2007-03-27
    listed $110,000
15. 2007-01-17
    historical
16. 2006-09-20
    listed $118,500
17. 2005-06-22
    soldstatus $98,900
18. 2005-05-31
    soldstatus $98,900
19. 2004-12-04
    listed $97,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,110 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,110 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,110
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,408
• − Management: −$1,408
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,744
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$659
• After-tax cash flow: $583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Norwich City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621330
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,687
• Composite: 35.68/100
• National rank: #4874
• State rank: #498 of 590 in NY

Livability — Norwich

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #447
• US rank: #7857

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 12,855
• Population (ZIP): 12,855

Population outlook (Chenango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,669 people
• By 2030: 43,484 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 38,774 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 34,000 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,637 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 16,452 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Chenango

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.2) · D 36.4% · R 63.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -27.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.2 2020: R+23.3 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.23%
• Current HPI: 280.463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+64.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $160,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $169,000 UNYREIS
• 2022-02-04 Listed — ODBOR
• 2015-07-15 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2014-11-10 Listed $225,000 UNYREIS
• 2012-10-15 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2011-10-20 Listed $159,000 CNYIS
• 2011-10-15 Listed $159,000 UNYREIS
• 2010-01-06 Listed $160,000 UNYREIS
• 2009-05-13 Listed $150,000 UNYREIS
• 2007-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-31 Sold (MLS) $100,000 UNYREIS
• 2007-03-27 Listed $110,000 UNYREIS
• 2007-01-17 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2006-09-20 Listed $118,500 UNYREIS
• 2005-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $98,900 Public Records
• 2005-05-31 Sold (MLS) $98,900 UNYREIS
• 2004-12-04 Listed $97,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,110 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.