8821 Tyrell Dr · Jennings, MO 63136

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 855 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1939 Est $56k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Fully renovated up to date/modern home very nice and well put together

Key facts

• Built 1939
• Listed 22 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#208 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, commute A-, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Jennings (suburban): math 8% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #315 of 324 in MO (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 86% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.98%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $56,430
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8816 Cozens Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0	832 (-3%)	0mo	$55,000	$66	81
8825 Tyrell Dr	0.01mi	2/1.0	770 (-10%)	7mo	$79,900	$104	77
8821 Eichler Pl	0.06mi	2/1.0	747 (-13%)	2mo	$30,000	$40	75
2509 Shirley Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0	884 (+3%)	4mo	$59,900	$68	72
2425 Shirley Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0	896 (+5%)	2mo	$34,900	$39	71
8808 Clifton Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0	912 (+7%)	2mo	$29,900	$33	68
2604 Avie Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0	825 (-4%)	3mo	$99,900	$121	63
8940 Scottdale Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (+4%)	7mo	$65,000	$73	62
2554 Main St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	920 (+8%)	2mo	$15,000	$16	56
8810 Clifton Ave	0.41mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-12%)	2mo	$38,500	$51	54
8339 Eton Pl	0.69mi	2/1.0	750 (-12%)	3mo	$22,500	$30	45
2623 Avie Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	922 (+8%)	6mo	$62,500	$68	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $37,940
• Equity at exit: $39,583

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $103,082
• Equity at exit: $63,973

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,148 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Lamar Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	894	$1,200	$1.34	17d	1	0.11mi
8893 Maya Ln Jennings, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	600	$930	$1.55	23d	6	0.16mi
3 Pohlman Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	704	$1,000	$1.42	16d	1	0.19mi
2617 Hord Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	4d	1	0.39mi
8720 Akins Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,150	$1.14	23d	1	0.39mi
8908 Scottdale Ave Jennings, MO	2.0	1.0	790	$1,000	$1.27	43d	1	0.46mi
8817 Shady Grove Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,075	$0.99	23d	1	0.46mi
2415 Shirley Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	23d	1	0.47mi
2427 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	43d	1	0.51mi
2527 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,135	$1.28	16d	1	0.52mi
2623 Avie Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	921	$1,350	$1.47	43d	1	0.63mi
8347 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,075	$1.43	43d	1	0.72mi
8344 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	4d	1	0.72mi
9547 Glen Owen Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	923	$985	$1.07	23d	1	0.78mi
2056 Coleridge Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	949	$1,195	$1.26	23d	1	0.83mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	0.83mi
8527 Dianthus Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	976	$1,295	$1.33	43d	1	0.86mi
7205 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	43d	1	0.88mi
1942 Damato Ct Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	905	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	0.89mi
8502 Dianthus Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1072	$1,175	$1.10	23d	1	0.92mi
9418 Pattonwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	982	$1,500	$1.53	23d	1	0.93mi
7516 Chandler Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	728	$1,000	$1.37	43d	1	0.93mi
7441 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,350	$1.26	12d	1	0.94mi
7426 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,125	$1.02	17d	1	0.96mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	43d	1	0.96mi
7142 Lamont Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	17d	1	0.97mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	23d	1	0.98mi
5640 Sapphire Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	1.03mi
5636 Statler Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	777	$1,200	$1.54	23d	1	1.04mi
5615 Beldon Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	43d	1	1.07mi
1550 Northwinds Estates Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$1,050	$1.20	43d	1	1.08mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	43d	1	1.09mi
5613 Statler Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	4d	1	1.09mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	7d	1	1.10mi
1225 Newark Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	944	$1,400	$1.48	3d	1	1.11mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	43d	1	1.14mi
5600 Gatesworth Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	4d	1	1.15mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	43d	1	1.15mi
5637 Jennings Station Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1116	$895	$0.80	43d	1	1.18mi
7315 Albright Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,150	$1.30	43d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $80,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-28
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,102
• − Management: −$1,102
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$760
• After-tax cash flow: $3,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jennings
• NCES district ID: 2916290
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,595
• Composite: 11.04/100
• National rank: #9739
• State rank: #315 of 324 in MO

Livability — Jennings

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #10499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jennings, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $80,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-57.1%/yr

Latest (2018): $28 · -96.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.