13318 Wind Field Dr · Magnolia, TX 77316

$217,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Oakridge Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Community Solutions; Association amenities: Playground, Park, Trails; Association fee $1,200 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision setting; Pond on lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Additional bedrooms on first floor (two bedrooms shown); Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen open to family room; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $217,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $302,644.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-606 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,697 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.58%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $302,644
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6035 Ash Willow Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-1%)	0mo	$261,990	$201	96
6046 Ash Willow Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-1%)	3mo	$263,990	$203	94
6110 Daintree Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-1%)	2mo	$255,990	$197	91
6250 Alder Creek Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,311 (0%)	3mo	$234,990	$179	80
6238 Alder Creek Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-3%)	1mo	$235,990	$185	69
6217 Alder Creek Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	0mo	$247,990	$170	65
6246 Alder Creek Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	2mo	$243,990	$167	64
6269 Alder Creek Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	3mo	$247,990	$170	63
6233 Alder Creek Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	0mo	$249,990	$171	61
6265 Alder Creek Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	2mo	$243,990	$168	61
6245 Alder Creek Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+12%)	1mo	$243,990	$167	60
6257 Alder Creek Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	2mo	$249,990	$171	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-92,664
• Equity at exit: $45,125

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.77×
• Total profit: $-149,951
• Equity at exit: $26,167

Cash invested: $84,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,587
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$378 /mo · $4,540/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,774

Max offer price $214,955

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-397	-5% $-501	+0% $-606	+5% $-711	+10% $-815
Rent	-10% $-765	-5% $-685	+0% $-606	+5% $-527	+10% $-447
Rate	-1.0pp $-454	-0.5pp $-529	base $-606	+0.5pp $-684	+1.0pp $-764

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,661
• Closing costs: $9,079
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $217,990 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,990 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   remarks 635-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $209,990 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $218,990 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $218,990 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $218,990 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $218,990 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $226,090 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $226,090 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $226,090 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $226,090 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $226,090 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $226,090 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $226,090 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,953
• − Property taxes: −$4,540
• − Insurance: −$1,513
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,927
• − Management: −$1,927
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,804
• Taxable loss: −$12,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,067
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $226,090 HARMLS