13318 Wind Field Dr · Montgomery, TX 77316

$207,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · SingleFamily · 117 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Oakridge Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $207,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $350,986.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 3049 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,532 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.85%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,986
• List price: $207,990
• Delta: -40.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6035 Ash Willow Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-1%)	4mo	$261,990	$201	94
6046 Ash Willow Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-1%)	6mo	$263,990	$203	92
6110 Daintree Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-1%)	5mo	$255,990	$197	89
13315 Wind Field Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	2mo	$222,990	$153	79
6238 Alder Creek Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-3%)	4mo	$235,990	$185	66
6217 Alder Creek Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	3mo	$247,990	$170	63
6246 Alder Creek Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	5mo	$243,990	$167	61
6209 Alder Creek Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	3mo	$243,990	$168	60
6233 Alder Creek Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	4mo	$249,990	$171	59
6265 Alder Creek Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	5mo	$243,990	$168	58
6245 Alder Creek Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+12%)	4mo	$243,990	$167	57
6257 Alder Creek Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	6mo	$249,990	$171	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-128,543
• Equity at exit: $52,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -94.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.20×
• Total profit: $-216,372
• Equity at exit: $30,347

Cash invested: $98,276 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.6 mo (38%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $211,490 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 23 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +83.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 3049
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,841
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$439 /mo · $5,265/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-1,052

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,197

Max offer price $198,762

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-809	-5% $-931	+0% $-1,052	+5% $-1,173	+10% $-1,295
Rent	-10% $-1,199	-5% $-1,126	+0% $-1,052	+5% $-978	+10% $-905
Rate	-1.0pp $-875	-0.5pp $-963	base $-1,052	+0.5pp $-1,143	+1.0pp $-1,235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,747
• Closing costs: $10,530
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Community SolutionsAssociation amenities: Playground, Park, TrailsAssociation fee $1,200 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision settingPond on lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floorAdditional bedrooms on first floor (two bedrooms shown)Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen open to family roomSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $207,990 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $207,990 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $207,990 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $207,990 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $207,990 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $207,990 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $207,990 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $207,990 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $207,990 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $207,990 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $207,990 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $207,990 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $207,990 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $207,990 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $207,990 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $207,990 Active 96 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $207,990 Active 94 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $207,990 Active 93 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $207,990 Active 92 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $207,990 Active 91 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $207,990 Active 90 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $207,990 Active 88 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $207,990 Active 87 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $207,990 Active 86 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $207,990 Active 85 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $207,990 Active 84 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $207,990 Active 83 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $207,990 Active 82 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $207,990 Active 81 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $207,990 Active 80 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $207,990 Active 79 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $207,990 Active 78 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $207,990 Active 77 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $207,990 Active 76 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $207,990 Active 75 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $207,990 Active 74 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $207,990 Active 73 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $207,990 Active 72 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $207,990 Active 71 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $207,990 Active 69 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $207,990 Active 68 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $207,990 Active 67 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $207,990 Active 66 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $207,990 Active 63 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $207,990 Active 61 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $207,990 Active 60 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $207,990 Active 58 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $207,990 Active 56 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $207,990 Active 55 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $207,990 Active 54 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,661
• − Property taxes: −$5,265
• − Insurance: −$1,755
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,791
• − Management: −$1,791
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$10,211
• Taxable loss: −$19,289
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,629
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,555–$19,665 screening

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia Parkway El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia West H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Community SolutionsAssociation amenities: Playground, Park, TrailsAssociation fee $1,200 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision settingPond on lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floorAdditional bedrooms on first floor (two bedrooms shown)Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen open to family roomSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $217,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $218,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $226,090 HARMLS