3411 S Camino Seco -- #189 · Tucson, AZ 85730

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Manufactured · 216 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 2012 Good condition $73/sqft · 31% below area Est $137k · 31% under $699/mo HOA · 51% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.8

Listing remarks MLS

You will enter this elegant home from the large covered porch. The living room has cathedral ceilings and plush carpeting. The kitchen/dining area directly across gives you a spacious living area. Lots of windows and skylight for maximum light even on those cloudy days. The elegant kitchen has lots of new cabinet space, granite countertops, sink and laminate floor. 4 ceiling fans. Spacious, carpeted primary bedroom has walk-in closet and large bath en suite with walk-in shower, exhaust fan, linen closet and hi-rise toilet. Second bedroom is carpeted and has large walk-in closet. Third bedroom floor is laminated and has pet door to outside yard. The second bathroom also has walk-in shower, exhaust fan and hi-rise toilet. The front deck has railings and a ramp for easy access 55+.

Key facts

• Large covered porch
• Spacious living area
• Cathedral ceilings

Tags

• LARGE COVERED PORCH
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• LOTS OF WINDOWS
• SKYLIGHT
• NEW CABINET SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $55k (41.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (41.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 3.8% in Tucson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ford Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #687 of 1,109 statewide, top 65%, 201 students, 72% FRL); Secrist Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #194 of 218 statewide, top 90%, 304 students, 76% FRL); Santa Rita High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #358 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 392 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 51% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,259 (41.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 2.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.39%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,355
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -30.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3411 S Camino Seco #12	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-15%)	7mo	$69,000	$63	59
3768 S Andrew Johnson Ave	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-4%)	11mo	$212,500	$170	57
3761 S Peggy Ln	0.93mi	3/2.0	1,300 (0%)	10mo	$209,000	$161	57
3710 S Cindy Ln	0.95mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-4%)	15mo	$245,000	$196	46
3701 S Peggy Ln	0.91mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-4%)	19mo	$259,000	$208	42
3730 S Bobby Dr	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+18%)	4mo	$265,000	$173	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -48.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-36,445
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.55×
• Total profit: $-67,926
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 24 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 144.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $66,450 ($50/sqft)
• Median days on market: 194 d
• This list price: 92% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +112.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85730

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$699
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,716

Max offer price $55,259

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-209	-5% $-242	+0% $-275	+5% $-307	+10% $-340
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $-329	+0% $-275	+5% $-221	+10% $-167
Rate	-1.0pp $-227	-0.5pp $-250	base $-275	+0.5pp $-299	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3292 S Kristina Park Loop Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,900	$1.15	127d	1	0.30mi
3455 S Magda Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,795	$1.20	48d	1	0.33mi
8632 E Mormon Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,695	$1.11	55d	1	0.46mi
8721 E Pomegranate St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,950	$1.42	24d	1	0.50mi
4052 S Ferris Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,125	$1.27	155d	1	0.54mi
4099 S Apache Well Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,766	$1.04	29d	1	0.56mi
3702 S Avenida de las Palmas Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1047	$1,490	$1.42	10d	1	0.56mi
9202 E 39th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1728	$1,650	$0.95	164d	1	0.57mi
8518 E Fond du Lac Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1036	$1,595	$1.54	10d	1	0.58mi
8508 E Fond du Lac Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,450	$1.39	55d	1	0.60mi
8508 E Fond du Lac Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,450	$1.39	10d	1	0.60mi
8721 E Perry Park Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,995	$1.26	125d	1	0.61mi
2650 S Brandywine Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,500	$1.12	184d	1	0.62mi
2620 S Brandywine Ln Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1200	$795	$0.66	46d	1	0.63mi
2650 S Oakenshield Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	987	$1,549	$1.57	55d	1	0.65mi
8401 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,695	$1.09	2d	1	0.66mi
8467 E Shasta Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,720	$1.06	120d	1	0.66mi
3576 S Harrison Shadow Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,775	$1.51	10d	1	0.68mi
8418 E Fond du Lac Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,850	$1.37	10d	1	0.68mi
9005 E Mayberry Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,020	$1.26	35d	1	0.69mi
8829 E Eagle Creek Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,830	$1.43	157d	1	0.71mi
8981 E Golf Links Rd Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	970	$1,950	$2.01	10d	1	0.73mi
8340 E Fond du Lac Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,795	$1.39	10d	1	0.74mi
3721 S Le Beaux Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,795	$1.53	1d	1	0.76mi
4275 S Mayberry Pl Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1672	$1,850	$1.11	184d	1	0.76mi
4289 S Goodall Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,950	$1.42	184d	1	0.78mi
2550 S Perillo Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	40d	1	0.78mi
8940 E Pine Valley Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1435	$1,581	$1.10	36d	1	0.80mi
3715 S Escalante Oasis Pl Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1601	$1,845	$1.15	123d	1	0.82mi
9020 E Pantano Bluff Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1740	$1,999	$1.15	108d	1	0.85mi
2618 S Camino Seco Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1442	$1,299	$0.90	164d	1	0.85mi
8828 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1740	$1,895	$1.09	10d	1	0.85mi
8828 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1740	$1,895	$1.09	13d	1	0.85mi
9530 E 42nd St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,895	$1.48	133d	1	0.86mi
9530 E 42nd St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,850	$1.44	10d	1	0.86mi
3536 S Burnett Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,550	$1.32	17d	1	0.86mi
3536 S Burnett Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,550	$1.32	10d	1	0.86mi
2501 S Pantano Pkwy Unit 3 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,500	$1.30	112d	1	0.86mi
2501 S Pantano Pkwy Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	10d	1	0.86mi
9172 E Corte Arroyo Oeste Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	144d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-11
   days on market $95,000 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-08-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-08-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-08-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-08-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-08-06
   days on market $95,000 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-08-05
   days on market $95,000 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-08-04
   days on market $95,000 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-08-03
   days on market $95,000 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-07-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-07-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-07-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-07-28
    days on market $95,000 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-07-26
    days on market $95,000 Active 200 DOM
15. 2026-07-24
    days on market $95,000 Active 198 DOM
16. 2026-07-23
    days on market $95,000 Active 197 DOM
17. 2026-07-22
    days on market $95,000 Active 196 DOM
18. 2026-07-21
    days on market $95,000 Active 195 DOM
19. 2026-07-20
    days on market $95,000 Active 194 DOM
20. 2026-07-18
    days on market $95,000 Active 192 DOM
21. 2026-07-18
    days on market $95,000 Active 191 DOM
22. 2026-07-16
    days on market $95,000 Active 190 DOM
23. 2026-07-15
    days on market $95,000 Active 189 DOM
24. 2026-07-14
    days on market $95,000 Active 188 DOM
25. 2026-07-13
    days on market $95,000 Active 187 DOM
26. 2026-07-13
    days on market $95,000 Active 186 DOM
27. 2026-07-11
    days on market $95,000 Active 185 DOM
28. 2026-07-10
    days on market $95,000 Active 184 DOM
29. 2026-07-09
    days on market $95,000 Active 183 DOM
30. 2026-07-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 181 DOM
31. 2026-07-06
    days on market $95,000 Active 180 DOM
32. 2026-07-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 179 DOM
33. 2026-07-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 177 DOM
34. 2026-07-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 176 DOM
35. 2026-07-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 175 DOM
36. 2026-06-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 174 DOM
37. 2026-06-29
    days on market $95,000 Active 173 DOM
38. 2026-06-28
    days on market $95,000 Active 172 DOM
39. 2026-06-27
    days on market $95,000 Active 171 DOM
40. 2026-06-27
    days on market $95,000 Active 170 DOM
41. 2026-06-25
    days on market $95,000 Active 168 DOM
42. 2026-06-22
    days on market $95,000 Active 166 DOM
43. 2026-06-21
    days on market $95,000 Active 165 DOM
44. 2026-06-18
    days on market $95,000 Active 162 DOM
45. 2026-06-17
    days on market $95,000 Active 161 DOM
46. 2026-06-16
    days on market $95,000 Active 160 DOM
47. 2026-06-15
    days on market $95,000 Active 159 DOM
48. 2026-06-13
    days on market $95,000 Active 157 DOM
49. 2026-06-10
    days on market $95,000 Active 154 DOM
50. 2026-06-09
    days on market $95,000 Active 153 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,419
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − HOA: −$8,388
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$4,582
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,100
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,500–$19,500 screening

This mobile home is in good condition with recent updates, making it move-in ready for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 13/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ford Elementary F AZ #687/1,109 Nat'l #32,000/41,679 Middle Secrist Middle School F AZ #194/218 Nat'l #13,419/14,009 High Santa Rita High School F AZ #358/381 Nat'l #16,644/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,399
• Household income: $62,090
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.41%
• Current HPI: 304.999
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.16%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+11.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $95,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $102,000 ARMLS
• 2021-05-28 Sold (MLS) $85,500 ARMLS
• 2021-03-28 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-11-06 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2020-11-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2020-08-29 Price Changed $86,500 ARMLS
• 2020-07-29 Price Changed $85,500 ARMLS
• 2020-07-25 Price Changed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2020-07-13 Price Changed $79,000 ARMLS
• 2020-06-14 Listed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2020-06-13 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2020-06-06 Listed $85,000 MLSSAZ