4155 Sprucewood St · Jan Phyl Village, FL 33880

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1981 3,964 sqft lot $163/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this well maintained home located in Oakwood Estates, a 55+ community, located in Sunny central Florida. The home features a very open and inviting kitchen, perfect for entertaining. The cooktop and built in oven have been updated. Step into the primary bedroom to find plenty of space for a king size bed, then step into the remodeled and updated primary bathroom. The split bedroom floor plan offers privacy to guests with a bathroom conveniently located outside the door. All the flooring is a laminate with no carpeting in the home. Enjoy the peaceful screened side porch. The home is located on a corner lot with a Florida room giving views of both streets, a great place for your mor

Key facts

• 3,964 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Private maintained paved road; Lot approximately 0.09 acres; Located on Dinner Lake (no direct water access or view; water extras include fishing pier)
• Financial info: Total annual fees approximately $1,957.32; Total monthly fees approximately $163.11
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee required); Monthly HOA fee approximately $163.11; HOA includes water and trash; Association amenities: gated community, laundry, pool, shuffleboard court, tennis courts; Community features: clubhouse, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, pool, tennis courts; Senior community; Pets allowed; Buyer approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Faces south; Residential property
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Fishing pier (water extras)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom floor plan; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#769 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.43%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $178
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $23,337
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3320 Timberline Rd W Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,735	$1.32	3d	1	0.85mi
449 Red Hawk Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,581	$1.43	3d	1	0.88mi
3039 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,175	$1.36	3d	1	0.89mi
3074 St Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	860	$1,149	$1.34	14d	1	0.90mi
3060 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	762	$1,373	$1.80	23d	1	0.95mi
3062 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,323	$1.20	3d	1	0.95mi
267 Lake Thomas Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,800	$1.74	23d	1	1.02mi
1059 Spirit Lake Rd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,378	$1.53	23d	1	1.07mi
108 Brad Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,720	$1.30	23d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    listed $120,000 Active
16. 1986-04-01
    soldstatus $4,950,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $670 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$326/yr (+$27/mo · 48.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$670
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,480
• − Management: −$1,480
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,103
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$505
• After-tax cash flow: $3,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jan Phyl Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #17294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $4,950,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $670 · +22.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.