534 County Road 3891 S · Cleveland, TX 77328

$205,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2022 0.51 ac lot $102/sqft · 15% below area Est $220k · 7% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The WONDER of Pebble Creek subdivision. Come out to the country and live in this quiet neighborhood on over 1/2 acre. This 4 bed 2 bath new construction home is built to please.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Half acre
• 0.51 acre lot

Tags

• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• UPGRADE FRONT ENTRANCE RAMP
• HALF ACRE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Special addendum disclosure

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (first level listed); Built in 2022
• Construction: Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot includes other/unspecified features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level) — 16 x 13; Bedroom (First level) — 13 x 13; Bedroom (First level) — 12 x 13; Bedroom (First level) — 12 x 13; Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen open to family room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.42%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,900
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -6.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 County Road 3893 E	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,016 (0%)	3mo	$230,000	$114	82
427 County Road 3892 W	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,016 (0%)	12mo	$234,900	$117	79
317 County Road 3892 E	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-11%)	11mo	$215,000	$119	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-19,744
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $192
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77328

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,721/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,756

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $327	-5% $269	+0% $211	+5% $153	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $52	-5% $131	+0% $211	+5% $291	+10% $371
Rate	-1.0pp $315	-0.5pp $264	base $211	+0.5pp $158	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $205,000 Active 503-char remark
16. 2025-09-07
    historical
17. 2025-07-02
    listed $234,000 Active
18. 2022-11-04
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    The WONDER of Pebble Creek subdivision. Come out to the country and live in this quiet neighborhood on over 1/2 acre. This 4 bed 2 bath new construction home is built to please.

19. 2022-10-06
    status Pending, Continue to Show

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    The WONDER of Pebble Creek subdivision. Come out to the country and live in this quiet neighborhood on over 1/2 acre. This 4 bed 2 bath new construction home is built to please.

20. 2022-07-22
    listed $234,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    The WONDER of Pebble Creek subdivision. Come out to the country and live in this quiet neighborhood on over 1/2 acre. This 4 bed 2 bath new construction home is built to please.

21. 2021-03-29
    soldstatus
22. 2013-07-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,721 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,030/yr (+$86/mo · 37.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,721
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$191
• After-tax cash flow: $2,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Jacinto County · 17,208 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,208
• Household income: $62,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 58.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Listed $234,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-10-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-22 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2021-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+32.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,721 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.