183 W Jamestown Rd · Kearny, AZ 85137

$149,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,222 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1974 8,617 sqft lot $122/sqft · 8% below area Est $162k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is the deal you have been looking for! This 4-bedroom 2-bathroom home is located in the quiet neighborhood of Kearny AZ. With just a little bit of paint, a little bit of love and a little bit of sweat equity, this home can be the home of your dreams. Two full baths to accommodate a large or growing family. Interior laundry room located right off the kitchen. Laminate wood flooring throughout most of the home. Upgraded 200amp electrical service. Central AC/Heat. Attached carport. Fully fenced backyard facing the SW mountains with a great view. This home is priced to sell. Come check this one out.

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Central ac heat
• 8,617 sq ft lot

Tags

• INTERIOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• UPGRADED ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• CENTRAL AC HEAT
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#20 in AZ, #4,875 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Ray Unified District (4438) (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #318 of 501 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $149k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.34%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,891
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -7.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
173 W Jamestown Rd	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,223 (+0%)	12mo	$218,500	$179	86
610 S York Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,112 (-9%)	3mo	$115,000	$103	76
217 W Fairhaven Rd W	0.28mi	3/1.8 (-1)	1,232 (+1%)	10mo	$230,000	$187	71
215 W Greenwich Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,177 (-4%)	9mo	$173,000	$147	70
336 W Greenwich Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,248 (+2%)	5mo	$175,000	$140	69
216 W Ivanhoe Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-2%)	17mo	$160,000	$133	68
187 W Jamestown Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-15%)	4mo	$190,000	$183	66
329 W Fairhaven Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,254 (+3%)	11mo	$210,000	$167	59
418 W Hartford Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,260 (+3%)	4mo	$185,000	$147	57
334 W Essex Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,121 (-8%)	19mo	$97,000	$87	41
333 W Essex Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-8%)	20mo	$169,000	$151	41
416 W Greenwich Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,169 (-4%)	17mo	$99,000	$85	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $103,989
• Equity at exit: $134,231

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.91×
• Total profit: $288,122
• Equity at exit: $289,474

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85137

• Home prices YoY: 22.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $733/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,145

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $444	-5% $402	+0% $359	+5% $317	+10% $275
Rent	-10% $233	-5% $296	+0% $359	+5% $423	+10% $486
Rate	-1.0pp $434	-0.5pp $397	base $359	+0.5pp $321	+1.0pp $282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
327 W Fairhaven Rd Kearny, AZ	4.0	1.5	1294	$1,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    listed $149,000 Active 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    Here is the deal you have been looking for! This 4-bedroom 2-bathroom home is located in the quiet neighborhood of Kearny AZ. With just a little bit of paint, a little bit of love and a little bit of sweat equity, this home can be the home of your dreams. Two full baths to accommodate a large or growing family. Interior laundry room located right off the kitchen. Laminate wood flooring throughout most of the home. Upgraded 200amp electrical service. Central AC/Heat. Attached carport. Fully fenced backyard facing the SW mountains with a great view. This home is priced to sell. Come check this one out.

17. 2005-04-21
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $733 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $983 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$250/yr (+$21/mo · 34.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$733
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $1,969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$472
• After-tax cash flow: $3,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ray Unified District (4438)
• NCES district ID: 0406850
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,632
• Composite: 25.45/100
• National rank: #12864
• State rank: #318 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Kearny

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kearny, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,533

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.16%
• Current HPI: 120.15
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+217.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $149,000 ARMLS
• 2005-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $733 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.