5210 Biscay Cove Ln · Katy, TX 77493

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 8,302 sqft lot $167/sqft · 15% below area Est $316k · 15% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This dream home greets you with an inviting front porch and flows into a generous family room seamlessly connected to a casual dining space. The expansive primary suite includes a private en-suite bathroom and a large walk-in closet, while the home also features two additional well-appointed secondary bedrooms. MOTIVATED SELLERS!!

Key facts

• Casual dining space
• Front porch
• Family room

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• FAMILY ROOM
• CASUAL DINING SPACE
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-502 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,249 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.96%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,997
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -14.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5611 Birchwood Glen Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,610 (-0%)	3mo	$331,202	$206	77
5017 Marcasca Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,689 (+5%)	2mo	$269,990	$160	70
3060 Pintail Green Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-1%)	2mo	$326,990	$204	63
27122 Turtle Vista Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,635 (+1%)	1mo	$366,990	$224	61
27034 Turtle Vista Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,635 (+1%)	2mo	$361,990	$221	60
4801 Sun Vida Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-12%)	1mo	$259,995	$184	56
5096 Marcasca Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-12%)	2mo	$269,990	$189	55
27114 Turtle Vista Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+3%)	2mo	$361,990	$219	55
5851 Havana Mist Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+3%)	2mo	$359,990	$218	54
5028 Marcasca Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,834 (+14%)	2mo	$301,990	$165	54
5847 Havana Mist Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+8%)	2mo	$371,990	$213	48
3032 Avalos Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+11%)	2mo	$349,990	$195	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-82,598
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -79.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.85×
• Total profit: $-139,636
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$843 /mo · $10,112/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,128

Max offer price $202,249

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-349	-5% $-425	+0% $-502	+5% $-578	+10% $-654
Rent	-10% $-699	-5% $-600	+0% $-502	+5% $-403	+10% $-305
Rate	-1.0pp $-366	-0.5pp $-433	base $-502	+0.5pp $-572	+1.0pp $-643

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,406	$1.41	0d	25	0.26mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	45d	1	0.38mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	22d	1	0.43mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.55mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,024	$1.60	0d	17	0.70mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	45d	1	0.87mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	14d	1	0.89mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	0.91mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	26d	1	0.91mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	0.92mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	0.94mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	26d	1	0.96mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	0.99mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	26d	1	1.00mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	1.03mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	26d	1	1.04mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	45d	1	1.10mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	45d	1	1.11mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	14d	1	1.24mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	1.27mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	45d	1	1.28mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	17d	1	1.28mi
2654 Aruba Bend Dr Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1958	$2,490	$1.27	0d	50	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $270,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $270,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-05-17
    price $270,000 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    This dream home greets you with an inviting front porch and flows into a generous family room seamlessly connected to a casual dining space. The expansive primary suite includes a private en-suite bathroom and a large walk-in closet, while the home also features two additional well-appointed secondary bedrooms. MOTIVATED SELLERS!!

15. 2026-03-14
    price $299,000 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    This dream home greets you with an inviting front porch and flows into a generous family room seamlessly connected to a casual dining space. The expansive primary suite includes a private en-suite bathroom and a large walk-in closet, while the home also features two additional well-appointed secondary bedrooms. MOTIVATED SELLERS!!

16. 2026-02-26
    price $320,000 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    This dream home greets you with an inviting front porch and flows into a generous family room seamlessly connected to a casual dining space. The expansive primary suite includes a private en-suite bathroom and a large walk-in closet, while the home also features two additional well-appointed secondary bedrooms. MOTIVATED SELLERS!!

17. 2026-02-20
    price $330,000 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    This dream home greets you with an inviting front porch and flows into a generous family room seamlessly connected to a casual dining space. The expansive primary suite includes a private en-suite bathroom and a large walk-in closet, while the home also features two additional well-appointed secondary bedrooms. MOTIVATED SELLERS!!

18. 2026-02-11
    historical $2,200
19. 2026-02-01
    listed $340,000 Active 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    This dream home greets you with an inviting front porch and flows into a generous family room seamlessly connected to a casual dining space. The expansive primary suite includes a private en-suite bathroom and a large walk-in closet, while the home also features two additional well-appointed secondary bedrooms. MOTIVATED SELLERS!!

20. 2025-12-12
    listed $2,200
21. 2025-12-03
    historical $2,200
22. 2025-11-05
    listed $2,200
23. 2024-11-24
    historical $2,200
24. 2024-10-29
    listed $2,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,112 · $843/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,112 · $843/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$10,112
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,393
• − Management: −$2,393
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$10,512
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,523
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home with a good condition score and cosmetic rehab level is ready for a motivated seller to sell it as-is or with minor cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12172.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Rental Removed $2,200 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-02-01 Listed $340,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed for Rent $2,200 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-12-03 Rental Removed $2,200 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-11-05 Listed for Rent $2,200 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-11-24 Rental Removed $2,200 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-10-29 Listed for Rent $2,200 SHOWMOJO

Property tax history

+106.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,112 · +36.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.