Is 16551 Timberwolf Trl in New Caney, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.5% cap rate and $-646/mo modeled cash flow at a $236,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 16551 Timberwolf Trl?

The modeled cap rate is 3.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,892/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 26.26

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.1/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +2.9/10.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
1% rule +1.7/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$236,990

16551 Timberwolf Trl · New Caney, TX 77357

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $192/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

Walk-in closet
Covered patio
Owner's suite

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-646 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (20.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (20.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $189k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 4.5% in New Caney — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Timber Lakes El (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 860 students, 63% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $188,535 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.67% ✗
Cap rate: 3.55%
Cash-on-cash: -9.81%
DSCR: 0.56
GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $281,950
List price: $236,990
Delta: -7.98%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16554 Timberwolf Trl	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,572 (0%)	0mo	$248,990	$158	99
16558 Timberwolf Trl	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+4%)	0mo	$231,890	$142	93
16503 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-3%)	0mo	$213,990	$141	89
16253 Bergara Bend Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-7%)	1mo	$202,990	$139	88
16238 Bergara Bend Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-8%)	1mo	$210,990	$145	86
16249 Bergara Bend Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-8%)	0mo	$208,990	$144	73
21540 Rustic Elm Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-8%)	1mo	$199,000	$138	72
16526 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+12%)	1mo	$271,990	$155	63
20942 Canary Wood Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,545 (-2%)	1mo	$219,900	$142	60
21054 Wenze Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+12%)	1mo	$240,000	$136	47
21718 Piper Betel Rd	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+11%)	1mo	$279,990	$160	41
21758 Piper Betel Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+14%)	1mo	$284,990	$159	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -37.3%
Equity multiple: -0.16×
Total profit: $-91,826
Equity at exit: $42,040

10-year hold

IRR: -78.3%
Equity multiple: -0.93×
Total profit: $-152,365
Equity at exit: $24,378

Cash invested: $78,946 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 124 active · 59 under contract
Months of supply: 11.4 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $249,990 ($151/sqft)
Median days on market: 86 d
This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +18.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

Home prices YoY: -24.7%
Rents YoY: 0.2%
Active inventory: 1238
Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,892 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,229/yr
Insurance: −$117
HOA: −$192
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
Net cashflow: $-646

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,709

Max offer price $188,535

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-451	-5% $-548	+0% $-646	+5% $-743	+10% $-840
Rent	-10% $-795	-5% $-720	+0% $-646	+5% $-571	+10% $-496
Rate	-1.0pp $-504	-0.5pp $-574	base $-646	+0.5pp $-719	+1.0pp $-793

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $70,488
Closing costs: $8,459
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	73d	1	0.61mi
15171 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,650	$1.07	15d	1	0.63mi
14255 Timber Fields Way Splendora, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	0d	59	1.04mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Timbers Edge Community AssociationAssociation fee $2,300 annually

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)One-storySlab foundation
Construction: Brick exteriorComposition roofBuilt in 2026
Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot

Interior

Kitchen: Electric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 12 x 13)Bedroom on first floor (approx. 11 x 10)Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 10)
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub/shower
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $236,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $236,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $236,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $236,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $236,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $236,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $236,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $236,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $236,990 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $236,990 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $236,990 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $236,990 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $236,990 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $236,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $236,990 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $236,990 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $236,990 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $236,990 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $236,990 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $236,990 Active 41 DOM

Show marketing remark (358 chars)

This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.
2026-07-14

price $236,990 Active 40 DOM

Show marketing remark (358 chars)

This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.
2026-07-13

days on market $248,990 Active 40 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $248,990 Active 39 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $248,990 Active 38 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $248,990 Active 37 DOM

Show marketing remark (358 chars)

This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.
2026-07-10

price $248,990 Active 36 DOM

Show marketing remark (358 chars)

This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.
2026-07-09

days on market $253,990 Active 36 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $253,990 Active 34 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $253,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $253,990 Active 32 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $253,990 Active 31 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $253,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $253,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $253,990 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $253,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $253,990 Active 26 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $253,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $253,990 Active 24 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $253,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $253,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $253,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $253,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $253,990 Active 15 DOM

Show marketing remark (358 chars)

This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.
2026-06-17

pricedays on market $253,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $259,440 Active 13 DOM
2026-06-15

remarks 576-char remark
2026-06-15

days on market $259,440 Active 12 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $259,440 Active 10 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $259,440 Active 9 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $259,440 Active 6 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $22,708
− Mortgage interest: −$15,794
− Property taxes: −$4,229
− Insurance: −$1,410
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,817
− Management: −$1,817
− HOA: −$2,304
− Depreciation: −$8,202
Taxable loss: −$12,864

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,087
After-tax cash flow: $-4,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a high ROI with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Timber Lakes El F TX #3,311/4,322 Nat'l #31,832/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Splendora ISD
NCES district ID: 4841070
Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income: $54,166
Composite: 24.92/100
National rank: #7572
State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 37,592
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 37,592
Household income: $76,050
Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
Current HPI: 266.8315
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

2026-07-14 Price Changed $236,990 Zillow
2026-07-13 Price Changed $236,990 HARMLS
2026-07-10 Price Changed $248,990 Zillow
2026-07-09 Price Changed $248,990 HARMLS
2026-06-18 Price Changed $253,990 Zillow
2026-06-16 Price Changed $253,990 HARMLS
2026-06-03 Listed $259,440 HARMLS
2026-05-08 Price Changed $259,440 Zillow
2026-04-22 Price Changed $268,440 Zillow
2026-04-02 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
2026-03-31 Listed $279,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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