2510 Jovial Dr · Ranson, WV 25438

$294,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,894 sqft · Townhouse · 16 Days on market

Built 2026 1,531 sqft lot Est $345k · 14% under $68/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Build Your Brand-New Mayer at Parkland Commons! Welcome to the to-be-built Mayer, a thoughtfully designed 2-car garage townhome that blends modern style, flexible living space, and low-maintenance convenience—all in a prime location. This 3-bedroom, 2 full and 1 half bath home has it all. A finished lower-level rec room comes included, providing additional space to relax, work, or entertain. It also offers the unique option of a first-floor bedroom with its own private bath, perfect for guests, multigenerational living, a roommate, or a private home office. The main level features a bright, open-concept design ideal for everyday living. The upgraded kitchen includes an expanded layout

Key facts

• First-floor bedroom
• Private bath
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• FINISHED LOWER-LEVEL REC ROOM
• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOM
• PRIVATE BATH
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee of $68 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Attached rear-entry garage with garage door opener; Two attached garage spaces; Two driveway parking spaces; Four total garage and parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service for heating, cooling, and hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Property in excellent condition; Construction not completed (per listing); Mixed construction materials; Slab foundation
• Construction: Mixed construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Above-grade finished area (estimated 1,894); Tidal water not present

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Recreation room; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Ranson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#100 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jefferson County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #6 of 55 in WV (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ranson Elementary School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #374 of 377 statewide, top 99%, 250 students, 0% FRL); Wildwood Middle School (math 15% / reading 40%, grade F, #70 of 109 statewide, top 65%, 425 students, 0% FRL); Jefferson High School (math 30% / reading 62%, grade D-, #9 of 110 statewide, top 7%, 1,444 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 33% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,162 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $229,932 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,708
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Oasis Ave	0.06mi	3/3.0	1,894 (0%)	3mo	$323,990	$171	93
5 Oasis Ave	0.06mi	3/3.0	1,894 (0%)	4mo	$344,990	$182	92
13 Oasis Ave	0.07mi	3/3.0	1,629 (-14%)	0mo	$309,990	$190	71
9 Oasis Ave	0.07mi	3/3.0	1,629 (-14%)	2mo	$301,590	$185	70
34 Rolling Branch Dr Lot 116 LANCASTER	0.45mi	3/3.0	1,766 (-7%)	13mo	$315,740	$179	55
412 E 7th Ave	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,648 (-13%)	6mo	$298,999	$181	55
414 E 7th Ave	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,648 (-13%)	7mo	$320,000	$194	54
408 E 7th Ave	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,648 (-13%)	8mo	$319,999	$194	53
410 E 7th Ave	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,648 (-13%)	8mo	$306,000	$186	53
11 Sherman Ave	0.63mi	3/3.5	1,979 (+4%)	15mo	$349,990	$177	47
124 Monroe Ave	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,000 (+6%)	3mo	$329,990	$165	47
105 Park St	0.64mi	2/3.5 (-1)	2,140 (+13%)	10mo	$279,000	$130	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $142,256
• Equity at exit: $265,750

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $433,605
• Equity at exit: $573,101

Cash invested: $82,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25438

• Home prices YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,299 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,667

Max offer price $253,005

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-86	-5% $-188	+0% $-290	+5% $-392	+10% $-494
Rent	-10% $-472	-5% $-381	+0% $-290	+5% $-199	+10% $-109
Rate	-1.0pp $-142	-0.5pp $-215	base $-290	+0.5pp $-367	+1.0pp $-444

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,748
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
406 Freeman St Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,600	$1.36	4d	1	0.72mi
1130 Stallion St Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,900	$1.15	7d	1	0.99mi
415 17th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1521	$1,990	$1.31	26d	1	1.01mi
405 17th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1725	$2,150	$1.25	7d	1	1.01mi
1308 Cedar Valley Rd Unit 1308 Ranson, WV	2.0	4.0	1333	$1,899	$1.42	26d	1	1.07mi
452 18th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1726	$1,895	$1.10	0d	1	1.12mi
1344 Red Clover Ln Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1723	$2,099	$1.22	14d	1	1.14mi
1247 Mare St Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1985	$2,080	$1.05	26d	1	1.17mi
115 Bell Tower Ln Charles Town, WV	4.0	2.5	2223	$2,600	$1.17	4d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,990 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,990 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,990 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,990 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,990 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,990 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,990 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,990 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,990 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $294,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,524
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,207
• − Management: −$2,207
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$8,644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,075
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400570
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,038
• Composite: 33.98/100
• National rank: #5322
• State rank: #6 of 55 in WV

Livability — Ranson

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #11255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ranson, WV
• County: Jefferson County · 28,403 people
• City population: 7,330
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 7,330
• Household income: $81,875
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,715 people
• By 2030: 64,052 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 67,713 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 69,843 · +13.2%
• By 2075: 72,679 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 71,872 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+15.8) · D 41.0% · R 56.8% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -15.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.8 2020: R+10.5 2016: R+15.3 2012: R+4.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.87%
• Current HPI: 352.707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $294,990 BRIGHT MLS