2622 Big Vine Ct · Sienna, TX 77459

$505,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2017 8,581 sqft lot $159/sqft · 18% below area Est $612k · 18% under $132/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exquisitely appointed one-story Shea Home featuring 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, private study, media room, and a 3-car garage. Thoughtfully designed with an exceptional layout and seamless flow, the open-concept living spaces transition effortlessly from the gourmet kitchen to the dining and family rooms — ideal for elevated entertaining and everyday living. The primary suite is a true retreat, highlighted by an expansive custom closet that connects directly to the oversized laundry room for added convenience. Enjoy added privacy with no back neighbors and a serene backyard setting. Recent updates include $4,600 in upgraded flooring, $2,000 in refreshed carpet, and a $1,600 fence enhancement. Luxury, function, and refined comfort beautifully combined. Zoned to highly regarded Ridge Point HS.

Key facts

• Custom closet
• Gourmet kitchen
• Private study

Tags

• PRIVATE STUDY
• MEDIA ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CLOSET
• OVERSIZED LAUNDRY ROOM
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $505k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $470k (7.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $505k).
• Recommended offer: $470k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,289/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($490k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $469,662 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.70%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $612,183
• List price: $505,000
• Delta: -17.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2610 Lazy Vine Ln	0.08mi	4/4.5	2,907 (-8%)	1mo	$715,000	$246	79
2618 Lazy Vine Ln	0.08mi	4/3.5	3,478 (+10%)	1mo	$750,000	$216	78
9418 San Marco Dr	0.27mi	4/4.5	3,266 (+3%)	4mo	$745,000	$228	77
10039 Cypress Path	0.45mi	4/3.5	3,348 (+5%)	0mo	$585,000	$175	68
10018 Foggy Riv	0.37mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,944 (-7%)	0mo	$449,999	$153	63
9227 Turtle Pond Ln	0.50mi	4/4.0	3,404 (+7%)	2mo	$600,000	$176	63
10115 Cypress Path	0.44mi	4/3.5	3,457 (+9%)	2mo	$520,900	$151	61
10022 Orchard Fld	0.41mi	4/3.5	3,563 (+12%)	1mo	$597,900	$168	58
10023 Starhill Ct	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,930 (-8%)	4mo	$450,000	$154	51
8919 Autumn Pine Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5	3,439 (+8%)	3mo	$597,000	$174	50
9019 Serenity Frst	0.71mi	4/4.5	3,474 (+9%)	3mo	$824,900	$237	47
10143 Deerpark Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	2,874 (-10%)	2mo	$475,000	$165	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-80,667
• Equity at exit: $105,913

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-117,894
• Equity at exit: $98,101

Cash invested: $141,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,648
• Tax from tax record: −$1,387 /mo · $16,649/yr
• Insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,111
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,542

Max offer price $469,662

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,250
• Closing costs: $15,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	0.79mi
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	2d	1	0.85mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	10d	1	0.85mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $505,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $505,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $505,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-04-15
   listed $505,000 Active 804-char remark

   Show marketing remark (804 chars)

   Exquisitely appointed one-story Shea Home featuring 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, private study, media room, and a 3-car garage. Thoughtfully designed with an exceptional layout and seamless flow, the open-concept living spaces transition effortlessly from the gourmet kitchen to the dining and family rooms — ideal for elevated entertaining and everyday living. The primary suite is a true retreat, highlighted by an expansive custom closet that connects directly to the oversized laundry room for added convenience. Enjoy added privacy with no back neighbors and a serene backyard setting. Recent updates include $4,600 in upgraded flooring, $2,000 in refreshed carpet, and a $1,600 fence enhancement. Luxury, function, and refined comfort beautifully combined. Zoned to highly regarded Ridge Point HS.

5. 2026-04-15
   historical

   Show marketing remark (804 chars)

   Exquisitely appointed one-story Shea Home featuring 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, private study, media room, and a 3-car garage. Thoughtfully designed with an exceptional layout and seamless flow, the open-concept living spaces transition effortlessly from the gourmet kitchen to the dining and family rooms — ideal for elevated entertaining and everyday living. The primary suite is a true retreat, highlighted by an expansive custom closet that connects directly to the oversized laundry room for added convenience. Enjoy added privacy with no back neighbors and a serene backyard setting. Recent updates include $4,600 in upgraded flooring, $2,000 in refreshed carpet, and a $1,600 fence enhancement. Luxury, function, and refined comfort beautifully combined. Zoned to highly regarded Ridge Point HS.

6. 2026-03-27
   price $515,000
7. 2026-03-27
   listed $515,000 Active
8. 2026-03-26
   historical
9. 2026-02-27
   listed $525,000 Active
10. 2020-07-28
    soldstatus
11. 2020-07-24
    soldstatus Sold
12. 2020-07-03
    status Pending
13. 2020-06-23
    status Option Pending
14. 2020-06-04
    status Active
15. 2020-06-02
    status Option Pending
16. 2020-05-30
    price $399,989
17. 2020-05-03
    listed $414,989 Active
18. 2018-09-17
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2018-09-11
    status Pending
20. 2018-08-24
    status Active
21. 2018-07-13
    status Pending
22. 2018-01-24
    listed $441,091 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $16,649 · $1,387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $16,649 · $1,387/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,288
• − Property taxes: −$16,649
• − Insurance: −$2,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,077
• − Management: −$5,077
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$14,691
• Taxable loss: −$10,427
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,502
• After-tax cash flow: $102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+14.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $505,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $515,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $515,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $525,000 HARMLS
• 2020-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-07-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-06-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-05-30 Price Changed $399,989 HARMLS
• 2020-05-03 Listed $414,989 HARMLS
• 2018-09-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-09-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-07-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-01-24 Listed $441,091 HARMLS

Property tax history

+24.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $16,649 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.