5021 Hill Dr · Zephyrhills West, FL 33542

$64,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1979 5,227 sqft lot Est $100k · 36% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom mobile home located in the desirable Betmar Community features a metal roof for added peace of mind and offers multiple ways to enjoy Florida living with both an enclosed porch and a screened-in porch—perfect for morning coffee, relaxing evenings, or entertaining guests year-round. With a great opportunity to update the inside and make it your own. Enjoy Florida living outdoors with space to relax, unwind, or entertain, plus room for storage of lawn equipment or seasonal items. Located just minutes from downtown Zephyrhills, as well as shopping, dining, and medical facilities, this home combines comfort with convenience. Betmar is an active golf course commu

Key facts

• Two hot tubs
• Metal roof
• Two swimming pools

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• ACTIVE GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY
• TWO SWIMMING POOLS
• TWO HOT TUBS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre (approx. 0.12 acres)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $448; approximately $37.33/month). Association approval required; Community amenities include clubhouse and pool; Golf carts allowed; Buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Electricity available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Residential property; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Storage; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $64k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $617 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $442 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.73%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,568
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37235 Eileen Ave	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	784 (0%)	6mo	$128,000	$163	72
5307 Flint St	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	774 (-1%)	3mo	$134,000	$173	72
4551 Orange Blossom Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	784 (0%)	1mo	$75,000	$96	66
37042 Lois Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	748 (-5%)	8mo	$95,000	$127	61
37031 Karen Ave	0.46mi	2/1.5 (-1)	720 (-8%)	1mo	$92,000	$128	57
37137 Lois Ave	0.34mi	2/1.5 (-1)	684 (-13%)	4mo	$66,000	$96	53
37240 Beverly Ave	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	898 (+14%)	2mo	$130,500	$145	51
5241 Bolton Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (-14%)	6mo	$80,000	$119	50
37113 Lois Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (-14%)	3mo	$75,000	$112	47
5433 Joyce St	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	888 (+13%)	5mo	$85,000	$96	46
36905 Kay Ave	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (+10%)	4mo	$148,500	$172	44
4833 Royal Palm Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (-14%)	2mo	$78,000	$116	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $24,357
• Equity at exit: $9,543

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $54,116
• Equity at exit: $5,534

Cash invested: $17,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,623 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$336
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,686/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $842

Max offer price $64,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $654	-5% $636	+0% $617	+5% $599	+10% $581
Rent	-10% $489	-5% $553	+0% $617	+5% $682	+10% $746
Rate	-1.0pp $650	-0.5pp $634	base $617	+0.5pp $601	+1.0pp $584

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,000
• Closing costs: $1,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37902 7th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,775	$1.97	25d	1	0.45mi
5521 Barbara St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	25d	1	0.51mi
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	25d	1	0.51mi
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	22d	1	0.53mi
5237 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$1,700	$1.76	25d	1	0.56mi
4639 Coral St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	25d	1	0.58mi
37819 Alissa Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	18d	1	0.63mi
37925 Date Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,300	$1.81	25d	1	0.69mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	25d	1	0.79mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	25d	1	0.84mi
36801 Camelia Ct Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	25d	1	0.86mi
4940 4th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	25d	1	0.86mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	25d	1	0.89mi
38236 Fir Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	25d	1	1.14mi
38702 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	25d	1	1.25mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,999	$2.34	2d	142	1.26mi
38552 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1052	$2,100	$2.00	21d	1	1.27mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	25d	1	1.27mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,595	$1.46	25d	1	1.31mi
38031 Meyer Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	25d	1	1.40mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	25d	1	1.40mi
36321 Stonewood Ln #103 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	987	$1,525	$1.55	25d	1	1.46mi
5914 Willow Ridge Dr #101 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	987	$1,500	$1.52	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $64,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $64,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $64,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-03-31
    price $78,000
15. 2026-03-03
    price $82,000
16. 2026-02-02
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,686 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,686 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,585
• − Property taxes: −$1,686
• − Insurance: −$1,822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$1,862
• Taxable income: $6,964
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,671
• After-tax cash flow: $5,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills West, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $78,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $82,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,686 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.