3143 Misty Morning Ln · Talty, TX 75126

$260,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 4,356 sqft lot Est $261k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $261k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-289/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.9% in Talty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,124 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willett El (725 students, 32% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,581 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,952
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3143 Misty Morning Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,572 (0%)	1mo	$260,990	$166	99
6812 N FM 148	0.47mi	4/1.5	1,600 (+2%)	5mo	$700,000	$438	69
9476 Douglas Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+7%)	8mo	$248,500	$148	51
9013 George Trl	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,782 (+13%)	21mo	$280,000	$157	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-47,372
• Equity at exit: $38,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-57,323
• Equity at exit: $22,566

Cash invested: $73,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,369
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$326 /mo · $3,915/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,336

Max offer price $257,509

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $66	+0% $-24	+5% $-114	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-206	-5% $-115	+0% $-24	+5% $67	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $42	base $-24	+0.5pp $-92	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,248
• Closing costs: $7,830
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $260,990
3. 2026-03-31
   listed $259,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,619
• − Property taxes: −$3,915
• − Insurance: −$1,305
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,214
• − Management: −$2,214
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,592
• Taxable loss: −$4,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,126
• After-tax cash flow: $838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The home presents significant structural and exterior issues, indicated by the satellite image, requiring extensive repairs and updates to improve its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The satellite image shows a large, irregular footprint that may indicate structural issues.
• Major exterior — The satellite image shows a large, irregular footprint that may indicate structural issues.
• Major landscaping — The satellite image shows a large, irregular footprint that may indicate structural issues.

Value-add opportunities

• Both structural repairs — Structural issues indicated by the satellite image could significantly impact the home's value.
• Both exterior painting — Painting the exterior could improve curb appeal and home value.
• Both landscaping — Landscaping improvements could enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Upgrading the HVAC system could improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both interior updates — Updating the interior could improve the home's overall condition and appeal, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The satellite image shows a large, irregular footprint that may indicate structural issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · The satellite image shows a large, irregular footprint that may indicate structural issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The satellite image shows a large, irregular footprint that may indicate structural issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both structural repairs — Structural issues indicated by the satellite image could significantly impact the home's value. ↑
• Both exterior painting — Painting the exterior could improve curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both landscaping — Landscaping improvements could enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Upgrading the HVAC system could improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both interior updates — Updating the interior could improve the home's overall condition and appeal, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Talty

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1124
• US rank: #19820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Talty, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $260,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $259,490 NTREIS