21314 Braxfield Loop · Estero, FL 33928

$774,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,643 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 202 Days on market

Built 2001 7,840 sqft lot Est $753k · at est. $235/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing opportunity to own this spacious 5 bedroom, 3.5 bath pool home in the highly sought-after Stoneybrook community in Estero! This home offers peace of mind with impact glass windows and rear doors (2023) and a recently replaced A/C (2023). The first floor features tile and vinyl flooring throughout, with a full bedroom and bath ideal for guests or a home office. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a charming breakfast nook with bay window, all overlooking the open family room. Upstairs you’ll find a large loft, three guest bedrooms with a shared full bath, and a generous primary suite with walk-in closet, dual sinks, and separate tub and shower. Enjoy Florida living with your own private heater pool with concrete paver flooring in this amenity-rich, gated public golf community. Stoneybrook amenities offer something for everyone! Enjoy access to an exercise room, 3 community pools, tennis courts, pickleball, volleyball, basketball, bocce ball, a playground, and even a baseball field. The public golf course means you can pay as you play—no membership required. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, I-75, FGCU, beaches, and RSW airport. You're just a short walk to the golf clubhouse, CVS, Publix, Miromar Outlets, and Hertz Arena. With low association fees and a full range of amenities, it’s easy to see why Stoneybrook remains one of Estero’s most popular communities.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• GATED PUBLIC GOLF COMMUNITY
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• IMPACT RATED FRONT DOOR
• DESIGNER IMPACT GARAGE DOOR
• SPACIOUS WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned RPD; Lot is deed-restricted (no commercial, no RV); Irrigation uses reclaimed water; Landscaped area view
• Financial info: Total annual recurring HOA fees indicated; Total one-time HOA fees indicated
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fee; HOA covers cable, internet/WiFi access, legal/accounting, management, and recreation facilities; Professional management; Community amenities include community pool and spa, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, basketball, bocce, golf course, playground, sidewalks, streetlights, and underground utilities; Community type: gated, golf course, tennis; One-time or transfer fees apply

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family home; Two-story design; Built in 2001; Rear exposure facing north; Residential property in the Stoneybrook development
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Automatic sprinkler system; Below-ground concrete private pool; Impact resistant windows and doors; Sliding windows; Stucco finish

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/Freezer; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Volume ceilings; Walk-in closets; Pantry; Breakfast bar and family dining area; Screened lanai/porch; Laundry room in residence; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Laundry in residence; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $774k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($969/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $650k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $650k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,505/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($681k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $575k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $650,497 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $753,255
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20229 Wildcat Run Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,627 (-1%)	3mo	$865,000	$329	76
11451 Pembrook Run	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,528 (-4%)	1mo	$550,000	$218	60
20194 Markward Xing	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,717 (+3%)	0mo	$895,000	$329	52
21613 Belhaven Way	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,823 (+7%)	12mo	$805,000	$285	47
21241 Waymouth Run	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,263 (-14%)	15mo	$620,000	$274	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-139,420
• Equity at exit: $115,406

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-188,779
• Equity at exit: $66,921

Cash invested: $216,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,505 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,059
• Tax from tax record: −$442 /mo · $5,300/yr
• Insurance: −$322
• HOA: −$235
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,366
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,403

Max offer price $774,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $519	-5% $300	+0% $81	+5% $-138	+10% $-357
Rent	-10% $-433	-5% $-176	+0% $81	+5% $338	+10% $595
Rate	-1.0pp $471	-0.5pp $278	base $81	+0.5pp $-120	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $193,500
• Closing costs: $23,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20271 Calice Ct #2304 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2009	$10,500	$5.23	25d	1	0.72mi
20150 Seagrove St #2701 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1856	$2,895	$1.56	18d	1	0.80mi
20623 Fair Oak Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2135	$3,800	$1.78	25d	1	0.89mi
11533 Woodmount Ln Estero, FL	5.0	3.0	2664	$6,500	$2.44	25d	1	0.89mi
20092 Palermo Lake Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1975	$7,995	$4.05	25d	1	0.89mi
20091 Palermo Lake Ct Estero, FL	4.0	2.5	2483	$10,950	$4.41	25d	1	0.91mi
20914 Thistle Leaf Ln Estero, FL	3.0	4.0	3099	$3,950	$1.27	5d	1	0.96mi
20884 Thistle Leaf Ln Estero, FL	4.0	4.0	2976	$3,900	$1.31	5d	1	0.99mi
20112 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2107	$10,750	$5.10	25d	1	1.04mi
20187 Buttermere Ct Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2490	$10,995	$4.42	25d	1	1.05mi
21565 Windham Run Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1947	$3,000	$1.54	25d	1	1.10mi
20057 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1848	$7,000	$3.79	25d	1	1.12mi
20053 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2045	$8,995	$4.40	25d	1	1.12mi
20099 Seadale Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2079	$5,500	$2.65	25d	1	1.14mi
20202 Ainsley St Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2135	$4,200	$1.97	5d	1	1.23mi
20195 Ainsley St Estero, FL	4.0	5.0	3736	$4,500	$1.20	25d	1	1.27mi
20187 Ainsley St Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2135	$3,500	$1.64	18d	1	1.28mi
19649 Aqua View Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2178	$8,500	$3.90	18d	1	1.50mi
19649 Aqua View Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2178	$6,000	$2.75	25d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $235 · $2,820/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $774,000 Active 202 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $774,000 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $774,000 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $774,000 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $774,000 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $774,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $774,000 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $774,000 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $774,000 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $774,000 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-02-02
    price $774,000
12. 2025-12-01
    listed $789,000 Active
13. 2025-08-12
    soldstatus $575,000
14. 2025-08-08
    soldstatus $575,000 Sold 1467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1467 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to own this spacious 5 bedroom, 3.5 bath pool home in the highly sought-after Stoneybrook community in Estero! This home offers peace of mind with impact glass windows and rear doors (2023) and a recently replaced A/C (2023). The first floor features tile and vinyl flooring throughout, with a full bedroom and bath ideal for guests or a home office. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a charming breakfast nook with bay window, all overlooking the open family room. Upstairs you’ll find a large loft, three guest bedrooms with a shared full bath, and a generous primary suite with walk-in closet, dual sinks, and separate tub and shower. Enjoy Florida living with your own private heater pool with concrete paver flooring in this amenity-rich, gated public golf community. Stoneybrook amenities offer something for everyone! Enjoy access to an exercise room, 3 community pools, tennis courts, pickleball, volleyball, basketball, bocce ball, a playground, and even a baseball field. The public golf course means you can pay as you play—no membership required. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, I-75, FGCU, beaches, and RSW airport. You're just a short walk to the golf clubhouse, CVS, Publix, Miromar Outlets, and Hertz Arena. With low association fees and a full range of amenities, it’s easy to see why Stoneybrook remains one of Estero’s most popular communities.

15. 2025-06-26
    status Pending With Contingencies 1467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1467 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to own this spacious 5 bedroom, 3.5 bath pool home in the highly sought-after Stoneybrook community in Estero! This home offers peace of mind with impact glass windows and rear doors (2023) and a recently replaced A/C (2023). The first floor features tile and vinyl flooring throughout, with a full bedroom and bath ideal for guests or a home office. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a charming breakfast nook with bay window, all overlooking the open family room. Upstairs you’ll find a large loft, three guest bedrooms with a shared full bath, and a generous primary suite with walk-in closet, dual sinks, and separate tub and shower. Enjoy Florida living with your own private heater pool with concrete paver flooring in this amenity-rich, gated public golf community. Stoneybrook amenities offer something for everyone! Enjoy access to an exercise room, 3 community pools, tennis courts, pickleball, volleyball, basketball, bocce ball, a playground, and even a baseball field. The public golf course means you can pay as you play—no membership required. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, I-75, FGCU, beaches, and RSW airport. You're just a short walk to the golf clubhouse, CVS, Publix, Miromar Outlets, and Hertz Arena. With low association fees and a full range of amenities, it’s easy to see why Stoneybrook remains one of Estero’s most popular communities.

16. 2025-06-09
    listed $625,000 Active 1467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1467 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to own this spacious 5 bedroom, 3.5 bath pool home in the highly sought-after Stoneybrook community in Estero! This home offers peace of mind with impact glass windows and rear doors (2023) and a recently replaced A/C (2023). The first floor features tile and vinyl flooring throughout, with a full bedroom and bath ideal for guests or a home office. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a charming breakfast nook with bay window, all overlooking the open family room. Upstairs you’ll find a large loft, three guest bedrooms with a shared full bath, and a generous primary suite with walk-in closet, dual sinks, and separate tub and shower. Enjoy Florida living with your own private heater pool with concrete paver flooring in this amenity-rich, gated public golf community. Stoneybrook amenities offer something for everyone! Enjoy access to an exercise room, 3 community pools, tennis courts, pickleball, volleyball, basketball, bocce ball, a playground, and even a baseball field. The public golf course means you can pay as you play—no membership required. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, I-75, FGCU, beaches, and RSW airport. You're just a short walk to the golf clubhouse, CVS, Publix, Miromar Outlets, and Hertz Arena. With low association fees and a full range of amenities, it’s easy to see why Stoneybrook remains one of Estero’s most popular communities.

17. 2018-07-13
    soldstatus $395,000
18. 2018-04-27
    price $400,000
19. 2010-05-24
    soldstatus $250,000
20. 2010-04-07
    price $254,900
21. 2009-01-28
    listed $250,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,300 · $442/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,424 · $535/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,124/yr (+$94/mo · 21.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,356
• − Property taxes: −$5,300
• − Insurance: −$3,870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,245
• − Management: −$6,245
• − HOA: −$2,820
• − Depreciation: −$22,516
• Taxable loss: −$12,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,950
• After-tax cash flow: $3,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+209.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $774,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $789,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $575,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-08 Sold (MLS) $575,000 BEARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Pending — BEARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Listed $625,000 BEARMLS
• 2018-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $395,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-27 Price Changed $400,000 BEARMLS
• 2010-05-24 Sold (MLS) $250,000 FORTMLS
• 2010-04-07 Price Changed $254,900 FORTMLS
• 2009-01-28 Listed $250,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,300 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.