15 Layton St · Lyons, NY 14489

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1880 4,792 sqft lot $96/sqft · 10% below area Est $132k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits at 15 Layton Street in Lyons! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 1,200 sq ft of living space and solid bones for its next owner. Recent updates include a newer furnace and hot water heater, giving buyers a great head start on improvements. The home features a fully fenced backyard, perfect for pets, gardening, or outdoor entertaining. With a little cosmetic updating, this property could truly shine. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking to build equity or an investor seeking your next project, this home offers great potential in a convenient village location . Short trip to Thruway for easy communting .

Key facts

• Newer furnace
• Hot water heater
• 4,792 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• NEWER FURNACE
• HOT WATER HEATER
• CONVENIENT VILLAGE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $511 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#270 in NY, #4,307 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F.
• Lyons Central School District (town): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #549 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lyons Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 492 students, 59% FRL); Lyons Middle School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #704 of 729 statewide, top 98%, 124 students, 66% FRL); Lyons Senior High School (math 82% / reading 84%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 259 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.27%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,771
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -8.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Layton St	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,268 (+1%)	20mo	$75,000	$59	78
4 Rice St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,196 (-5%)	5mo	$70,000	$59	63
47 Montezuma St	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,264 (+1%)	4mo	$75,000	$59	60
2 Elm St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,356 (+8%)	3mo	$149,000	$110	58
3 Maple St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,226 (-2%)	9mo	$110,000	$90	58
21 Dickerson St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,125 (-10%)	12mo	$190,000	$169	56
46 Dickerson St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,348 (+7%)	11mo	$183,000	$136	55
38 Shuler St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,260 (+0%)	15mo	$79,000	$63	54
14 Hillcrest Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,340 (+7%)	12mo	$196,000	$146	49
20 High St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,126 (-10%)	18mo	$105,000	$93	48
46 Shuler St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,128 (-10%)	6mo	$84,500	$75	44
3 Scott St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,392 (+11%)	15mo	$125,500	$90	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $97,976
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.83×
• Total profit: $263,000
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14489

• Home prices YoY: 14.2%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,204/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,092

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $579	-5% $545	+0% $511	+5% $477	+10% $444
Rent	-10% $374	-5% $443	+0% $511	+5% $580	+10% $649
Rate	-1.0pp $572	-0.5pp $542	base $511	+0.5pp $480	+1.0pp $449

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 78 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 77 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 76 DOM
18. 2026-03-16
    listed $120,000 Active 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    Opportunity awaits at 15 Layton Street in Lyons! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 1,200 sq ft of living space and solid bones for its next owner. Recent updates include a newer furnace and hot water heater, giving buyers a great head start on improvements. The home features a fully fenced backyard, perfect for pets, gardening, or outdoor entertaining. With a little cosmetic updating, this property could truly shine. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking to build equity or an investor seeking your next project, this home offers great potential in a convenient village location . Short trip to Thruway for easy communting .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,204
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,670
• − Management: −$1,670
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,520
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,085
• After-tax cash flow: $5,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyons Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -28.00%
• Median HH income: $43,076
• Composite: 31.73/100
• National rank: #5909
• State rank: #549 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lyons

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #4307

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyons, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,016

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.65%
• Current HPI: 311.1445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $120,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,204 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.