4538 Larkspur St · Houston, TX 77051

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,132 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1952 5,501 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Prime redevelopment opportunity in an area experiencing continued growth and new construction. Situated on a generously sized lot, this property is being offered at lot value and is ideal for builders, investors, or buyers looking to create their vision from the ground up. Existing structure is considered a tear-down and is being sold as-is, where-is with no repairs. Conveniently located with quick access to major thoroughfares, downtown Houston, the Texas Medical Center, and area universities. Whether you're planning a custom home, spec build, or investment project, this lot offers outstanding potential in a rapidly developing neighborhood. Don’t miss this chance to secure land in on

Key facts

• Generously sized lot
• 5,501 sq ft lot
• Built 1952

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Single-story entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 1952
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (including primary bedroom)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Space heater for heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Three total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $593 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $150k implies a 348% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.93%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,668
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4508 Clover St	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,159 (+1%)	5mo	$275,000	$127	81
4516 Galesburg St Unit B	0.32mi	3/2.5	2,186 (+2%)	1mo	$289,900	$133	78
8813 Edgar St	0.25mi	3/2.5	2,000 (-6%)	7mo	$365,000	$183	70
4338 Larkspur St	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,958 (-8%)	4mo	$230,000	$117	70
4747 Clover St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,851 (-13%)	1mo	$247,500	$134	62
4425 Elmwood St	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,995 (-6%)	4mo	$310,000	$155	60
4427 Elmwood St	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,995 (-6%)	4mo	$310,000	$155	60
9023 Comal St	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,246 (+5%)	2mo	$335,000	$149	56
4430 Sunflower St	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,076 (-3%)	6mo	$225,000	$108	56
9003 Comal St	0.68mi	3/3.5	2,012 (-6%)	2mo	$339,900	$169	51
4804 Wilmington	0.55mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,299 (+8%)	3mo	$345,000	$150	48
4418 Rosemont St	0.67mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,961 (-8%)	1mo	$250,000	$127	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $123,375
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.15×
• Total profit: $342,190
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,912/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $593

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $678	-5% $635	+0% $593	+5% $550	+10% $508
Rent	-10% $424	-5% $508	+0% $593	+5% $677	+10% $761
Rate	-1.0pp $668	-0.5pp $631	base $593	+0.5pp $554	+1.0pp $514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	44d	1	0.04mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	15d	1	0.28mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	5d	1	0.31mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	24d	1	0.33mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	17d	1	0.55mi
4835 Sunflower St Unit 1546466P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$4,516	$2.40	15d	1	0.69mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	44d	1	0.73mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	44d	1	0.73mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	44d	1	0.76mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	13d	1	0.76mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	24d	1	0.81mi
4613 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	44d	1	0.83mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	14d	1	0.98mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	44d	1	1.01mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	20d	1	1.01mi
3620 Du Bois St Unit 1302349P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1797	$2,945	$1.64	3d	1	1.05mi
7710 Darnay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,095	$1.28	44d	1	1.12mi
5201 Kenilwood Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2442	$1,725	$0.71	14d	1	1.21mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	44d	1	1.26mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	1.30mi
5314 Longmeadow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1646	$1,900	$1.15	44d	1	1.34mi
7806 Comal St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,200	$1.22	44d	1	1.36mi
7358 Guadalcanal Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	44d	1	1.37mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	44d	1	1.38mi
7339 Krueger Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2440	$1,900	$0.78	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-05-21
    listed $150,000 Active
13. 1999-10-01
    soldstatus $33,500
14. 1992-09-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,912 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,912 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,912
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $5,065
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,216
• After-tax cash flow: $5,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 1999-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records
• 1992-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,912 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.