3563 Valerie Dr · Youngstown, OH 44502

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1958 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

charming 3 bedroom 1 bath ranch offering great potential and a solid foundation to make it your own. This home features a functional layout with an attached garage. With a little TLC, this property could truly shine - perfect for 1st time home buyers, investors, or anyone looking to add personal touches. Conviently located and full of opportunity, this a great chance to build equity and create your own little dream home.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 20.7% vs local median 7.0% in Youngstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#99 in OH, #1,506 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Youngstown City (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #649 of 656 in OH (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,193/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $886 appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.30%
• DSCR: 3.28
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $101,370
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3332 Sheridan Rd	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-1%)	3mo	$56,005	$61	67
515 Lincoln Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	984 (+6%)	1mo	$179,900	$183	62
2510 E Midlothian Blvd	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,016 (+9%)	3mo	$107,500	$106	57
2577 E Midlothian Blvd	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,004 (+8%)	8mo	$136,900	$136	55
3222 Sheridan Rd	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+8%)	6mo	$110,000	$109	53
3437 Wayside Dr	0.63mi	3/1.5	936 (+1%)	18mo	$95,500	$102	53
429 8th St	0.48mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,012 (+9%)	10mo	$45,000	$44	50
3449 Wayside Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	964 (+4%)	20mo	$105,000	$109	44
1665 Everett Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (+2%)	20mo	$125,000	$131	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $40,920
• Equity at exit: $19,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.91×
• Total profit: $96,513
• Equity at exit: $27,024

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44502

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2523 E Midlothian Blvd Apt 5 Struthers, OH	2.0	1.0	750	$800	$1.07	13d	1	0.41mi
61 Crescent Dr Struthers, OH	2.0	1.0	670	$650	$0.97	13d	1	0.42mi
1914 S Heights Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1115	$1,950	$1.75	44d	1	0.51mi
1803 Pointview Ave Youngstown, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$1,000	$1.05	44d	1	0.57mi
3446 Ambert Ave Youngstown, OH	4.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	13d	1	0.62mi
610 Elm St Struthers, OH	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,500	$1.43	13d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-29
   listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $6,777
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,627
• After-tax cash flow: $5,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Youngstown City
• NCES district ID: 3904516
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $25,257
• Composite: 9.29/100
• National rank: #9858
• State rank: #649 of 656 in OH

Livability — Youngstown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #1506

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Youngstown, OH
• County: Mahoning County · 84,956 people
• City population: 28,503
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,594
• Household income: $31,170
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 35% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Current HPI: 246.2163
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-03-29 Listed $49,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.