6447 Holiday Valley Rd Unit 518-5 · Ellicottville, NY 14731

$42,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 475 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2009 Poor condition 436 sqft lot $90/sqft · 23% below area Est $55k · 23% under $118/mo HOA · 15% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Summer fun in Ellicottville starts now, and you just hit the jackpot with this studio condo at Holiday Valley! One of the most affordable ways to start enjoying the ski town lifestyle, let the stress melt away with seamless access to the pool complex, cabana bar, golfing, skiing, and some of the best hiking and biking in Western New York. Set for a full interior update prior to the 2026-27 ski season, this 475 square foot unit sleeps four comfortably, between its queen bed and pull-out couch. The kitchen features granite countertops with an oven, dishwasher, and full refrigerator. You’ll also find perfectly appointed spaces for dining, cozying up in front of the fireplace, storage, an

Key facts

• Underground parking
• Cabana bar
• Sauna

Tags

• CABANA BAR
• FULL INTERIOR UPDATE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UNDERGROUND PARKING
• PRIVATE STORAGE LOCKER
• SAUNA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Tamarack Club HOA with quarterly fee; Association fee includes common area maintenance, common area insurance, common areas, insurance, maintenance structure, reserve fund, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story residence; Existing property condition; Shingle roof; Stone and wood siding
• Construction: Built as existing structure; Stone and wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: In-ground pool; Hot tub / spa; On golf course; Ski-in / ski-out access; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Drapes and window treatments; Granite counters
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $43k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($786 rent vs $43k).
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 0.6% in Ellicottville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#422 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellicottville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #179 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ellicottville Elementary School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 245 students, 38% FRL); Ellicottville Middle School High School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 310 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.62%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,414
• List price: $42,900
• Delta: -9.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $2,087
• Equity at exit: $6,397

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $13,803
• Equity at exit: $3,709

Cash invested: $12,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14731

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $786 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$54 /mo · $644/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$118
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$165
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $609

Max offer price $42,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $155	+0% $140	+5% $125	+10% $110
Rent	-10% $78	-5% $109	+0% $140	+5% $171	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $151	base $140	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,725
• Closing costs: $1,287
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $118 · $1,416/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $42,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $42,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $42,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 693-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    pricedays on marketlisting id $42,900 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-04-27
    listed $49,900 Active 1160-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,403
• − Property taxes: −$644
• − Insurance: −$1,012
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$754
• − Management: −$754
• − HOA: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$1,248
• Taxable income: $1,200
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$288
• After-tax cash flow: $1,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, interior, HVAC, and landscaping, significantly impacting its current condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No photos of the roof
• Major exterior siding — No photos of the exterior siding
• Major interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals
• Major landscaping — No photos of the landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding would enhance the home's curb appeal and value
• Both interior painting — Fresh paint would improve the home's interior and rental appeal
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard would enhance the home's curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No photos of the roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · No photos of the exterior siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No photos of the interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · No photos of the landscaping	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding would enhance the home's curb appeal and value ↑
• Both interior painting — Fresh paint would improve the home's interior and rental appeal ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard would enhance the home's curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellicottville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610530
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,528
• Composite: 55.33/100
• National rank: #1258
• State rank: #179 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ellicottville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,198

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.11%
• Current HPI: 280.7168
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $42,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-06-08 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $49,900 WNYREIS