7991 Rock River Rd · Interlaken, NY 14847

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1988 4.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Handyperson special in beautiful scenic location outside of Ovid. 1988 manufactured home has two smaller bedrooms plus a large primary suite with dual vanities, garden tub, and stall shower. Second full bath has full size tub/shower. Two generous size living rooms plus an elevated dining area alongside the kitchen. Oversize two car garage for plenty of extra storage. Densely wooded lot with Sheldrake Creek flowing along one side. Tons of potential here to make this your country oasis.

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Stall shower
• Elevated dining area

Tags

• LARGE PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL VANITIES
• GARDEN TUB
• STALL SHOWER
• TWO GENEROUS SIZE LIVING ROOMS
• ELEVATED DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#930 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• South Seneca Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #552 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Seneca County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Seneca County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,546 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $21,802
• Equity at exit: $74,307

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $73,403
• Equity at exit: $126,464

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14847

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,145 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,270/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,291

Max offer price $114,696

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-39	-5% $-77	+0% $-115	+5% $-153	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-205	-5% $-160	+0% $-115	+5% $-70	+10% $-24
Rate	-1.0pp $-47	-0.5pp $-81	base $-115	+0.5pp $-150	+1.0pp $-186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-07-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-19
   listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,270 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,276 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$6/yr ($0/mo · 0.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,270
• − Insurance: −$1,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,100
• − Management: −$1,100
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$3,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$885
• After-tax cash flow: $-495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Seneca Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622140
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,533
• Composite: 30.71/100
• National rank: #6170
• State rank: #552 of 590 in NY

Livability — Interlaken

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #930
• US rank: #18108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,385

Population outlook (Seneca County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,457 people
• By 2030: 32,540 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 30,680 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 28,875 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 24,757 · -26.0%
• By 2100: 19,591 · -41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Seneca

• 2024 margin: R (+11.8) · D 44.1% · R 55.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -11.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.8 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+12.1 2012: D+9.2 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.73%
• Current HPI: 293.2564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-07 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-06-19 Listed $135,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,270 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.