4931 Marina Shores Ct · Houston, TX 77493

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,697 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 2018 6,263 sqft lot $162/sqft · 16% below area Est $328k · 16% under $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4931 Marina Shores Court, a beautifully maintained single-story home located in the highly sought-after Ventana Lakes community. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers impressive curb appeal and a light-filled, open-concept layout perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel built-in appliances, shaker-style cabinetry, a breakfast bar, and plenty of counter and storage space. The spacious primary suite accommodates king-sized furniture and includes an en-suite bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, separate standing shower, and a walk-in closet. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking a generously sized backyard—ideal for relaxing or letting kids and pets play. Enjoy access to community amenities such as a pool, playground, and scenic lakes. With its thoughtful layout and desirable location, this move-in ready home offers comfort, style, and convenience all in one.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Granite countertops
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SHAKER-STYLE CABINETRY
• BREAKFAST BAR
• COVERED PATIO
• GENEROUSLY SIZED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-373 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morton Ranch El (math 35% / reading 48%, grade F, #1,437 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 1,130 students, 69% FRL); T H Mcdonald J H (math 42% / reading 49%, grade D+, #470 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,059 students, 74% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 27% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,144 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.81%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,379
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -16.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23647 Red Rowan Ln	0.17mi	3/3.0	1,734 (+2%)	1mo	$397,786	$229	84
23631 Red Rowan	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+2%)	1mo	$314,990	$182	84
23615 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+2%)	1mo	$374,600	$216	83
23714 Padova Gardens Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,932 (+14%)	0mo	$310,990	$161	69
5010 Royal Regiment Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-11%)	3mo	$288,000	$190	68
23651 Red Rowan	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,880 (+11%)	2mo	$402,729	$214	68
23627 Red Rowan	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,880 (+11%)	1mo	$374,990	$199	67
24223 Palomino Sage Trl	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,635 (-4%)	8mo	$299,900	$183	65
23642 Red Rowan Ln	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,880 (+11%)	1mo	$420,155	$223	63
24319 Palomino Sage Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,615 (-5%)	6mo	$279,995	$173	60
23607 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.27mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,880 (+11%)	1mo	$414,878	$221	59
4611 Tuscan Lily Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,946 (+15%)	2mo	$309,900	$159	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-75,232
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-122,797
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$696 /mo · $8,351/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,936

Max offer price $209,144

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-217	-5% $-295	+0% $-373	+5% $-451	+10% $-528
Rent	-10% $-567	-5% $-470	+0% $-373	+5% $-275	+10% $-178
Rate	-1.0pp $-234	-0.5pp $-303	base $-373	+0.5pp $-444	+1.0pp $-517

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5022 Brewcastle Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,100	$1.38	45d	1	0.32mi
5103 Visionary Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1692	$2,121	$1.25	3d	9	0.41mi
24246 Palomino Sage Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,305	$1.24	46d	1	0.52mi
23030 Cunningham Falls Trl Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1213	$2,900	$2.39	0d	242	0.67mi
22865 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,759	$1.37	17d	1	0.84mi
22855 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,399	$1.44	14d	1	0.86mi
22841 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,249	$1.54	7d	1	0.88mi
22851 Terazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1740	$2,239	$1.29	0d	1	0.89mi
4019 Ventana Ridge Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1622	$2,145	$1.32	0d	5	0.89mi
22824 Frassino Pl Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	3d	1	0.90mi
22808 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,499	$1.25	0d	1	0.93mi
22743 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	3.0	1200	$2,309	$1.92	45d	1	0.98mi
22737 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,649	$1.41	45d	1	0.99mi
22738 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	21d	1	1.00mi
22722 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,559	$1.27	18d	1	1.02mi
22728 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,369	$1.42	26d	1	1.02mi
22719 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	19d	1	1.02mi
22716 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,439	$1.31	7d	1	1.03mi
22720 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	19d	1	1.03mi
22718 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,439	$1.30	7d	1	1.03mi
22713 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,419	$1.45	14d	1	1.03mi
22717 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	7d	1	1.03mi
22712 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,179	$1.49	26d	1	1.03mi
22624 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	1.06mi
22622 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	1.06mi
22626 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,699	$1.35	45d	1	1.06mi
4411 Andorno Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2094	$2,221	$1.06	26d	1	1.07mi
22629 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	7d	1	1.07mi
22627 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	7d	1	1.07mi
22628 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,659	$1.32	17d	1	1.08mi
22616 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,539	$1.36	17d	1	1.08mi
22614 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	14d	1	1.08mi
22617 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,279	$1.56	45d	1	1.09mi
22615 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	1.09mi
22613 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	1.09mi
22611 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	1.09mi
23100 Clay Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,299	$2.33	0d	36	1.12mi
22843 Castello Lakes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,148	$1.06	23d	1	1.16mi
24508 Clay Rd Unit AVL2 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,785	$1.70	5d	1	1.16mi
23100 Clay Rd Unit 210014 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,600	$1.39	45d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $275,000 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Welcome to 4931 Marina Shores Court, a beautifully maintained single-story home located in the highly sought-after Ventana Lakes community. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers impressive curb appeal and a light-filled, open-concept layout perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel built-in appliances, shaker-style cabinetry, a breakfast bar, and plenty of counter and storage space. The spacious primary suite accommodates king-sized furniture and includes an en-suite bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, separate standing shower, and a walk-in closet. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking a generously sized backyard—ideal for relaxing or letting kids and pets play. Enjoy access to community amenities such as a pool, playground, and scenic lakes. With its thoughtful layout and desirable location, this move-in ready home offers comfort, style, and convenience all in one.

16. 2026-04-03
    price $284,900 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Welcome to 4931 Marina Shores Court, a beautifully maintained single-story home located in the highly sought-after Ventana Lakes community. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers impressive curb appeal and a light-filled, open-concept layout perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel built-in appliances, shaker-style cabinetry, a breakfast bar, and plenty of counter and storage space. The spacious primary suite accommodates king-sized furniture and includes an en-suite bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, separate standing shower, and a walk-in closet. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking a generously sized backyard—ideal for relaxing or letting kids and pets play. Enjoy access to community amenities such as a pool, playground, and scenic lakes. With its thoughtful layout and desirable location, this move-in ready home offers comfort, style, and convenience all in one.

17. 2026-03-05
    listed $290,000 Active 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Welcome to 4931 Marina Shores Court, a beautifully maintained single-story home located in the highly sought-after Ventana Lakes community. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers impressive curb appeal and a light-filled, open-concept layout perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel built-in appliances, shaker-style cabinetry, a breakfast bar, and plenty of counter and storage space. The spacious primary suite accommodates king-sized furniture and includes an en-suite bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, separate standing shower, and a walk-in closet. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking a generously sized backyard—ideal for relaxing or letting kids and pets play. Enjoy access to community amenities such as a pool, playground, and scenic lakes. With its thoughtful layout and desirable location, this move-in ready home offers comfort, style, and convenience all in one.

18. 2025-12-03
    historical
19. 2025-05-12
    listed $310,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,351 · $696/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,351 · $696/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$8,351
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
• − Management: −$2,366
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$9,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,182
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $284,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-12 Listed $310,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+29.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,351 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.