515 NW 5th St · Hardin, MO 64035

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1965 0.55 ac lot $74/sqft · 34% below area Est $144k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to peaceful, small-town living! Located in the heart of Hardin, Missouri, this 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers 1,278 square feet of living space situated on a sprawling 0.55-acre lot. Whether you are an investor looking to add a solid property to your portfolio or a buyer eager to bring your personal touch to a classic home, this rural retreat is full of potential. Inside, you will find spacious living areas featuring cozy wood paneling and a unique stone-look accent wall. The kitchen offers ample wood cabinetry, a double sink, and a large window that lets in plenty of natural light. Outside, the expansive half-acre property boasts mature shade trees, a level yard with a fenced ba

Key facts

• 0.55 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area recorded from public records; Basement present — concrete and other features

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage facing side; 1-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Ranch floor plan; Faces south
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Garage(s) on property; Home is 51–75 years old
• Exterior features: Metal fencing; City limits location; Level lot; Paved road with public maintenance; Property in a flood plain

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen / kitchen-dining combo
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main/first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Stained cabinets; Storm door(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level and in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $80k (16.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#258 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hardin-Central C-2 (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #217 of 535 in MO (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Ray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ray County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,626 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.84%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,929
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -34.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Parkway N/A	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,206 (-6%)	4mo	$74,900	$62	78
323 Parkway St	0.21mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,282 (+0%)	8mo	$179,000	$140	76
213 W Elm St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,201 (-6%)	5mo	$160,000	$133	65
206 E Elm St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,310 (+2%)	13mo	$139,500	$106	60
309 W Elm St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-10%)	11mo	$139,500	$121	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $46,461
• Equity at exit: $85,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $141,706
• Equity at exit: $184,564

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64035

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $709/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $79,626

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $100,000 Active 1197-char remark
16. 2026-05-11
    price $100,000 1197-char remark
17. 2026-05-11
    historical $10,000 1197-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $709 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$213/yr (+$18/mo · 30.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$709
• − Insurance: −$6,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,179
• − Management: −$1,179
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$2,414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$579
• After-tax cash flow: $-465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin-Central C-2
• NCES district ID: 2913680
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,076
• Composite: 39.65/100
• National rank: #8043
• State rank: #217 of 535 in MO

Livability — Hardin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #12440

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hardin, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,157

Population outlook (Ray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,420 people
• By 2030: 20,507 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 18,550 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 16,516 · -22.9%
• By 2075: 12,899 · -39.8%
• By 2100: 10,413 · -51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.1% · R 73.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.2pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+45.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+3.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.23%
• Current HPI: 443.0517
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+850.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $95,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $100,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $100,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Coming Soon $10,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $709 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.