7313 Gulf Fwy #123 · Houston, TX 77017

$45,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 518 sqft · Condo public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1980 $87/sqft · 17% below area Est $54k · 17% under $300/mo HOA · 33% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special! This 160 unit residential complex, know for its affordability and cozy homes, ideally located minutes from the University of Houston with easy access to I-45. The community offers a pool, clubhouse and gated entry. Perfect opportunity for a rental investment or value-add project. Strong investment potential.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Easy access to i-45
• Pool

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO I-45
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• GATED ENTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($151/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($911 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 88 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.53%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,231
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -17.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-8,135
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-12,489
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77017

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $911 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,031/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $895

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $25	+0% $13	+5% $0	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-59	-5% $-23	+0% $13	+5% $49	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $24	base $13	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7313 Gulf Fwy #907 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	635	$999	$1.57	15d	1	0.12mi
7581 City Dr Ofc City Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	615	$830	$1.35	44d	1	0.33mi
3402 Dover St Houston, TX	—	1.0	390	$840	$2.15	44d	1	0.37mi
8029 Detroit St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$725	$1.45	44d	1	0.38mi
7915 Ithaca St Unit 2 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	600	$750	$1.25	44d	1	0.44mi
7915 Ithaca St Unit 3 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	450	$650	$1.44	44d	1	0.44mi
3505 Evergreen Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$875	$1.75	44d	1	0.49mi
3505 Evergreen Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$875	$1.75	22d	1	0.49mi
2724 Broadway St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	680	$872	$1.28	44d	7	0.50mi
2522 Patricia Manor Pl Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	560	$773	$1.38	8d	1	0.64mi
2522 Patricia Manor Pl Unit 2596 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	560	$770	$1.38	3d	1	0.64mi
2522 Patricia Manor Pl Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	714	$911	$1.28	8d	1	0.64mi
2522 Patricia Manor Pl Unit 2573 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	560	$762	$1.36	13d	1	0.64mi
2522 Patricia Manor Pl Unit 2596 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	560	$808	$1.44	14d	1	0.64mi
2325 Coral St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$850	$1.19	22d	1	0.70mi
2325 Coral St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	560	$800	$1.43	25d	1	0.70mi
2325 Coral St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$850	$1.19	44d	1	0.70mi
7437 Southway Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$920	$1.29	44d	1	0.70mi
2930 Plum Creek Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,200	$1.46	3d	6	1.02mi
8357 Park Place Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	739	$845	$1.14	44d	1	1.06mi
123 Winkler Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	738	$989	$1.34	13d	1	1.17mi
123 Winkler Dr Unit 1112 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	738	$997	$1.35	3d	1	1.18mi
123 Winkler Dr Unit 144 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	738	$1,035	$1.40	14d	1	1.18mi
123 Winkler Dr Unit 197 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	738	$1,039	$1.41	11d	1	1.18mi
123 Winkler Dr Unit 324 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	738	$1,000	$1.36	8d	1	1.18mi
3045 Golfcrest Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$850	$1.55	44d	1	1.26mi
3040 Golfcrest Blvd Apt 11 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	644	$745	$1.16	44d	1	1.30mi
6705 Fairway Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$750	$1.36	14d	2	1.32mi
1023 Delmas St Unit B Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	637	$999	$1.57	20d	1	1.34mi
7901 Leonora St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$795	$1.06	5d	10	1.38mi
6534 Myrtle St Unit B Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	529	$999	$1.89	22d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $45,000 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 164 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-02-05
    price $45,000 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Investor special! This 160 unit residential complex, know for its affordability and cozy homes, ideally located minutes from the University of Houston with easy access to I-45. The community offers a pool, clubhouse and gated entry. Perfect opportunity for a rental investment or value-add project. Strong investment potential.

13. 2025-12-19
    listed $50,000 Active 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Investor special! This 160 unit residential complex, know for its affordability and cozy homes, ideally located minutes from the University of Houston with easy access to I-45. The community offers a pool, clubhouse and gated entry. Perfect opportunity for a rental investment or value-add project. Strong investment potential.

14. 2012-10-10
    soldstatus
15. 2012-10-10
    soldstatus
16. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,031 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,031 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,031
• − Insurance: −$1,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$875
• − Management: −$875
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable loss: −$300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$72
• After-tax cash flow: $223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,640
• Household income: $51,079
• Rent vs Own: 49.0% rent · 51.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1601.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 38% White 7% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 65%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 32% English-only · Spanish 63% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.86%
• Current HPI: 277.3656
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $45,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $50,000 HARMLS
• 2012-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,031 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.