551 Summit Trl #190 · Granby, CO 80446

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,573 sqft · Manufactured · 114 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2020 Good condition $137/sqft · at area comps Est $222k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.2

Listing remarks

Priced to move, this is a very low priced 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Smith Creek. The open concept layout makes everyday living and entertaining easy, with a seamless flow between the kitchen and living space. A spacious utility/laundry room offers plenty of room for storage, hobbies, or indoor gear. With the 10'x8' storage shed outside, you have ample space for all your outdoor gear. However, there's also a great potential to add a garage for even more flexibility down the road.

Key facts

• 10x8 storage shed
• Open concept layout
• Community pool

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS UTILITY LAUNDRY ROOM
• 10X8 STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($277/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.4% in Granby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#85 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• East Grand School District No. 2 (rural): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #17 of 86 in CO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Granby Elementary School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #300 of 966 statewide, top 32%, 331 students, 38% FRL); East Grand Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #84 of 270 statewide, top 32%, 290 students, 22% FRL); Middle Park High School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #78 of 381 statewide, top 22%, 406 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 556 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Grand County in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.96%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,783
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -3.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
551 Summit Trail Trl #10	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	2mo	$223,000	$139	84
551 Summit Trail Trl #43	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,458 (-7%)	1mo	$184,900	$127	77
551 Summit Trail Trl #22	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+1%)	15mo	$255,000	$161	76
551 Summit Trl #142	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+2%)	19mo	$255,000	$159	75
551 Summit Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-12%)	11mo	$262,500	$189	68
551 Summit Trail Trl #78	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-12%)	11mo	$262,500	$189	66
1051 Summit Trl Unit V05	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,234 (-22%)	9mo	$329,500	$267	39
1051 Summit Trl Unit V30	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,234 (-22%)	12mo	$333,000	$270	37
1051 Summit Trl Unit V20	0.82mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,437 (-9%)	13mo	$345,000	$240	35
1051 Summit Trl Unit V36	0.82mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,234 (-22%)	1mo	$319,000	$259	34
19 LA Plata Dr	1.20mi	3/3.5	1,846 (+17%)	6mo	$800,000	$433	29
495 New Church Cir	0.88mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+18%)	16mo	$780,000	$422	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-33,259
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-26,627
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 52.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $249,448 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 161 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -17.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 80446

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 556
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,069 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,039

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $97	+0% $23	+5% $-51	+10% $-125
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-59	+0% $23	+5% $105	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $78	base $23	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased with a monthly land lease payment
• HOA & community: Community poolSpa/Hot TubFitness centerGame roomStorageTrash serviceSnow removal

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric on property
• Home design: Residential mobile homeOne level
• Exterior features: Outdoor poolHas a view

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorRangeOvenMicrowaveDishwasher
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Has cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on the main level

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-28
   days on market $215,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-08-27
   days on market $215,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-08-25
   days on market $215,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-08-24
   days on market $215,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-08-23
   days on market $215,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-08-22
   days on market $215,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-08-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-08-20
   days on market $215,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-08-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-08-18
    days on market $215,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-08-17
    days on market $215,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-08-16
    days on market $215,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-08-15
    days on market $215,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-08-15
    days on market $215,000 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-08-13
    days on market $215,000 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-08-12
    days on market $215,000 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-08-11
    days on market $215,000 Active 97 DOM
18. 2026-08-10
    days on market $215,000 Active 96 DOM
19. 2026-08-09
    days on market $215,000 Active 95 DOM
20. 2026-08-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 94 DOM
21. 2026-08-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 93 DOM
22. 2026-08-06
    days on market $215,000 Active 92 DOM
23. 2026-08-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 91 DOM
24. 2026-08-04
    days on market $215,000 Active 90 DOM
25. 2026-08-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 89 DOM
26. 2026-07-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 86 DOM
27. 2026-07-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 84 DOM
28. 2026-07-28
    days on market $215,000 Active 83 DOM
29. 2026-07-26
    days on market $215,000 Active 81 DOM
30. 2026-07-25
    days on market $215,000 Active 80 DOM
31. 2026-07-23
    days on market $215,000 Active 78 DOM
32. 2026-07-22
    days on market $215,000 Active 77 DOM
33. 2026-07-21
    days on market $215,000 Active 76 DOM
34. 2026-07-18
    days on market $215,000 Active 73 DOM
35. 2026-07-16
    days on market $215,000 Active 71 DOM
36. 2026-07-16
    days on market $215,000 Active 70 DOM
37. 2026-07-14
    days on market $215,000 Active 69 DOM
38. 2026-07-14
    days on market $215,000 Active 68 DOM
39. 2026-07-12
    days on market $215,000 Active 67 DOM
40. 2026-07-11
    days on market $215,000 Active 66 DOM
41. 2026-07-10
    days on market $215,000 Active 65 DOM
42. 2026-07-09
    days on market $215,000 Active 64 DOM
43. 2026-07-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 62 DOM
44. 2026-07-06
    days on market $215,000 Active 61 DOM
45. 2026-07-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 60 DOM
46. 2026-07-04
    days on market $215,000 Active 59 DOM
47. 2026-07-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 58 DOM
48. 2026-07-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 57 DOM
49. 2026-07-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 56 DOM
50. 2026-06-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$2,578
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,986
• − Management: −$1,986
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$3,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$780
• After-tax cash flow: $1,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home offers a spacious and well-maintained living space with modern amenities and ample storage options.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both storage shed — increases storage space and utility ↑
• Both garage addition — increases flexibility and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Granby Elementary School F CO #300/966 Nat'l #17,502/41,679 Middle East Grand Middle School F CO #84/270 Nat'l #6,151/14,009 High Middle Park High School C- CO #78/381 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Grand School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 0804320
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,903
• Composite: 41.64/100
• National rank: #3424
• State rank: #17 of 86 in CO

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Granby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #7574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granby, CO
• County: Grand County · 14,498 people
• City population: 4,017
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 4,017
• Household income: $74,973
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Grand County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,498 people
• By 2030: 14,215 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,225 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 12,186 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 10,196 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 8,326 · -42.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Portuguese 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Grand

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: R+1.8 2016: R+13.5 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.78%
• Current HPI: 347.8691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased with a monthly land lease payment
• HOA & community: Community poolSpa/Hot TubFitness centerGame roomStorageTrash serviceSnow removal

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric on property
• Home design: Residential mobile homeOne level
• Exterior features: Outdoor poolHas a view

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorRangeOvenMicrowaveDishwasher
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Has cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on the main level

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $215,000 GCAR