2402 Cottonwood St · Mission, TX 78572

$218,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,601 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1990 9,168 sqft lot Est $243k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2402 Cottonwood Street in Mission, TX, a beautifully maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath home ideally located just off Shary Road and Griffin Parkway. This charming home offers a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings and exposed wood beams, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, abundant cabinetry, and a walk in pantry. The generously sized primary suite includes a walk in closet and a tiled walk in shower. Enjoy year around relaxation in the enclosed sunroom overlooking the private backyard with mature citrus trees and plenty of space to entertain with a storage shed for additional storage. Conveniently locate

Key facts

• Exposed wood beams
• Walk in closet
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• EXPOSED WOOD BEAMS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN PANTRY
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy Star features
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (2 covered spaces, 2 total parking spaces)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; City sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Brick construction; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation; Owner-occupied lot
• Construction: Brick exterior; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Mature trees; Sprinkler system; Curb and gutters; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range (coil); Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Thermostat
• Interior features: Laminate countertops; Decorative or high ceilings; Mini blinds; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area with washer/dryer connections; Washer included; Dryer included; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sharyland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #406 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Donna Wernecke El (math 23% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 697 students, 71% FRL); Sharyland North J H (math 46% / reading 42%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 806 students, 74% FRL); Sharyland H S (math 36% / reading 58%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 1,546 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,835 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,352
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2400 Live Oak St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+7%)	2mo	$220,000	$128	84
2710 E Solar Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,583 (-1%)	5mo	$295,000	$186	79
1300 S Santa Fe St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+1%)	8mo	$290,000	$180	72
2000 E 25th St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,647 (+3%)	0mo	$250,000	$152	70
2101 Summer Breeze Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+0%)	10mo	$239,900	$149	67
2305 E 19th St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-2%)	4mo	$260,000	$166	66
2109 E 28th St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-4%)	8mo	$198,000	$129	64
1913 E 24th St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,547 (-3%)	8mo	$228,500	$148	60
2207 E 21st St E	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,459 (-9%)	3mo	$170,000	$117	59
2215 Lilly Cv	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	5mo	$229,500	$159	56
2107 E 27th St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,835 (+15%)	8mo	$289,000	$157	49
2200 E 19th St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,829 (+14%)	9mo	$235,000	$128	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-46,642
• Equity at exit: $32,505

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-65,057
• Equity at exit: $18,849

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,868 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$361 /mo · $4,333/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,019

Max offer price $196,958

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-57	+0% $-119	+5% $-181	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-193	+0% $-119	+5% $-45	+10% $28
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-64	base $-119	+0.5pp $-176	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2505 E Solar Dr Mission, TX	3.0	3.5	1550	$2,300	$1.48	44d	1	0.30mi
2614 E Solar Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1492	$3,000	$2.01	24d	1	0.31mi
2705 Mimosa St #8 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,480	$1.19	44d	1	0.33mi
2401 E 27th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1727	$1,850	$1.07	24d	1	0.35mi
2715 Mimosa St #12 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,350	$0.96	15d	1	0.36mi
2815 Mimosa St Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1154	$1,088	$0.94	15d	1	0.41mi
2111 E 25th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	2239	$2,000	$0.89	44d	1	0.44mi
2609 May Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	44d	1	0.44mi
2212 Lilly Cove Dr Mission, TX	3.0	3.0	1950	$1,750	$0.90	44d	1	0.47mi
5125 Sequoia Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1896	$2,600	$1.37	44d	1	0.50mi
2201 E 21st St Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1529	$1,850	$1.21	15d	1	0.51mi
2203 E 19th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	0.62mi
2200 E 19th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$1,950	$1.07	44d	1	0.64mi
2514 Yarrow St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1682	$2,700	$1.61	24d	1	0.68mi
2516 Wisteria Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,800	$1.36	15d	1	0.73mi
1313 N 48th St Unit 4 McAllen, TX	4.0	2.5	1172	$1,295	$1.10	44d	1	0.74mi
1013 N 47th St McAllen, TX	4.0	2.0	1663	$1,650	$0.99	22d	1	0.92mi
4608 W Ivy Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,900	$1.15	15d	1	0.94mi
2304 N 45th St McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1669	$2,500	$1.50	20d	1	0.95mi
1801 Crown Pointe Blvd Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,650	$1.03	15d	1	0.95mi
4305 Walnut Ave Unit 1 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,250	$1.09	24d	1	1.08mi
4704 Date Palm Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	2120	$2,200	$1.04	24d	1	1.10mi
1606 Terrace Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2127	$2,600	$1.22	15d	1	1.12mi
2510 E U.S. Business 83 Unit 7 Mission, TX	2.0	1.5	2176	$800	$0.37	44d	1	1.14mi
2436 E 8th Ave Mission, TX	3.0	3.0	1987	$2,700	$1.36	45d	1	1.21mi
800 Ragland Rd Unit 10 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,325	$1.26	44d	1	1.24mi
103 S 48th Ln #3 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,500	$1.18	44d	1	1.27mi
103 S 48th Ln #3 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,400	$1.10	15d	1	1.27mi
116 S 49th St #1 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1206	$1,400	$1.16	44d	1	1.28mi
1412 E 28th St Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2068	$2,300	$1.11	24d	1	1.29mi
720 Ragland Rd #8 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,300	$1.23	24d	1	1.29mi
2225 Dorado Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1839	$2,100	$1.14	22d	1	1.31mi
115 S 48th Ln Unit 2 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,200	$0.96	44d	1	1.31mi
2319 Dorado Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1583	$1,900	$1.20	44d	1	1.31mi
2313 Dorado Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	44d	1	1.31mi
2004 Angus St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$975	$0.85	44d	1	1.36mi
214 S 48th Ln Unit 1 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.5	1190	$1,000	$0.84	44d	1	1.36mi
213 S 49th St Unit 4 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	24d	1	1.36mi
400 S 49th St Unit 4 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1080	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	1.41mi
400 S 49th St Unit 2 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.5	1080	$950	$0.88	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $218,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,333 · $361/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,333 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$4,333
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$5,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,234
• After-tax cash flow: $-195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sharyland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839930
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $57,792
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5214
• State rank: #406 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $218,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2014-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,333 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.