3388 Paumanok Way · Sacramento, CA 95835

$490,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,849 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2005 2,718 sqft lot $265/sqft · 13% below area Est $563k · 13% under $68/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a wonderful home is 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathrooms and is approximately 1849 Sqft. of living space. It features an open concept living area downstairs with living room, dining area, kitchen island and plenty of storage. The dining area slider opens to a cozy side yard. Upstairs opens to a loft which would be great for home office, children's play area, exercise space or second living area. Previous Sellers did extensive upgrades at time of construction including surround sound entertainment system, canned lighting, electrical upgrades and more. Low HOA fees, neighborhood parks and shopping close by make this an ideal location. At this price, it will be a Short Sale requiring Lender Approv

Key facts

• 2,718 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with monthly fee ($68) covering grounds maintenance; No association amenities listed

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage with alley access, rear-facing garage and automatic garage door opener; Street entrance
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public district irrigation; Cable available; Internet available; Natural gas available; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Built in 2005
• Construction: Residential construction
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Back yard fencing; Auto sprinkler in front; Curb(s)/gutter(s); Front landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Pantry closet; Ceramic and tile counters; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (includes upper-level bedrooms and a master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with closet, shower stall(s), double sinks, tub and window; Other baths with shower stall(s), tub with shower over and window
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Whole house fan
• Interior features: Wet bar; Front porch; Dual-pane full windows; Two levels/Two-story layout; Great room living area; Loft
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $490k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (44.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (36.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (44.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: H. Allen Hight Elementary (802 students, 59% FRL); Natomas Middle (662 students, 65% FRL); Inderkum High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #289 of 1,170 statewide, top 25%, 2,266 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$78k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($475k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,847 (44.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.80%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $562,855
• List price: $490,000
• Delta: -12.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5609 Gambrel Way	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,815 (-2%)	3mo	$525,000	$289	91
3428 Shaker Way	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,917 (+4%)	1mo	$590,905	$308	90
340 Greg Thatch Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,811 (-2%)	3mo	$580,000	$320	82
6 Sea Hawk Pl	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,962 (+6%)	3mo	$545,000	$278	78
5225 Sun Chaser Way	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,870 (+1%)	2mo	$535,000	$286	76
3345 La Cadena Way	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+3%)	2mo	$565,000	$297	75
17 Narwal Pl	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,992 (+8%)	3mo	$490,440	$246	74
180 Caravaggio Cir	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,776 (-4%)	1mo	$485,000	$273	72
5358 Admiral Bend Way	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,859 (+0%)	2mo	$520,000	$280	70
3419 Mas Amilos Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	2,021 (+9%)	0mo	$542,000	$268	68
3742 Haymaker Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,797 (-3%)	4mo	$570,000	$317	63
1472 Jeannie Way	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,034 (+10%)	1mo	$600,000	$295	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $155,792
• Equity at exit: $412,588

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $506,602
• Equity at exit: $860,757

Cash invested: $137,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,104 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,570
• Tax from tax record: −$731 /mo · $8,773/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$652
• Net cashflow: $-1,246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,681

Max offer price $269,847

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-969	-5% $-1,108	+0% $-1,246	+5% $-1,385	+10% $-1,524
Rent	-10% $-1,491	-5% $-1,369	+0% $-1,246	+5% $-1,124	+10% $-1,001
Rate	-1.0pp $-999	-0.5pp $-1,122	base $-1,246	+0.5pp $-1,373	+1.0pp $-1,502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,500
• Closing costs: $14,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
789 Greg Thatch Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,990	$1.50	5d	1	0.05mi
3396 Shaker Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$3,250	$1.79	14d	1	0.06mi
5421 Shennecock Way Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2561	$3,000	$1.17	12d	1	0.14mi
5301 E Commerce Way #58104 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1315	$2,900	$2.21	0d	1	0.26mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	0d	1	0.29mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,662	$2.00	25d	2	0.32mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,648	$1.98	18d	3	0.32mi
30 Sheen Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,850	$1.73	45d	1	0.33mi
5301 E Commerce Way #34103 Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1774	$3,000	$1.69	0d	1	0.36mi
3606 Damora Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2362	$3,900	$1.65	45d	1	0.39mi
5215 Noyack Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1673	$2,595	$1.55	0d	1	0.46mi
3044 Enchanted Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1351	$2,300	$1.70	0d	1	0.47mi
100 Picasso Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2413	$3,950	$1.64	5d	1	0.49mi
3712 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$4,000	$2.41	5d	1	0.76mi
3766 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,675	$1.61	45d	1	0.79mi
3530 Callison Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2007	$3,000	$1.49	0d	1	0.85mi
5040 Kankakee Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	2454	$2,895	$1.18	5d	1	1.00mi
3301 N Park Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,672	$1.59	45d	2	1.03mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	9d	1	1.08mi
4236 Bellwether Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2282	$3,300	$1.45	0d	1	1.12mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	45d	1	1.18mi
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	45d	1	1.19mi
5350 Dunlay Dr #911 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,750	$1.81	0d	1	1.34mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	23d	2	1.34mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	19d	3	1.34mi
4800 Westlake Pkwy #3008 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1304	$2,250	$1.73	45d	1	1.41mi
4800 Westlake Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1214	$2,250	$1.85	4d	3	1.42mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$3,819	$3.11	0d	24	1.48mi
2157 Promise Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2493	$2,995	$1.20	0d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $490,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $490,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $490,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $490,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $490,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $490,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $490,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $520,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $520,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $520,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $520,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $520,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $520,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $520,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $520,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2023-07-25
    soldstatus $507,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,773 · $731/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,773 · $731/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,448
• − Property taxes: −$8,773
• − Insurance: −$3,952
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,979
• − Management: −$2,979
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$14,255
• Taxable loss: −$23,960
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,750
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $507,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,773 · +16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.