28890 LILAC Rd #179 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$289,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 360 Days on market

Built 2025 3,400 sqft lot $258/sqft · 90% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A STEAL!!! brand-new 2025 home, nestled within Hide-Away Lake, a highly desirable 55+ gated community in Valley Center. This beautifully designed residence features an inviting open concept living area perfect for entertaining, with a spacious kitchen and a seamless flow into the great room. Kitchen features brand-new stainless-steel appliances, an island with seating and a walk-in pantry! Relax in the primary suite, complete with a deluxe ensuite bathroom featuring dual sinks and a large walk-in shower with gorgeous floor to ceiling tilework! A second full bath with tub offers convenience for guests. Enjoy the peace of mind of a new build in a well-maintained gated community! The city of Valley Center has several markets, gas stations, restaurants, medical offices, post office, bank, and casinos - Something for everyone! Hurry! Call Now! Serial 235000HA002353A/B

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Large walk-in shower
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• DELUXE ENSUITE BATHROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN SHOWER
• FLOOR TO CEILING TILEWORK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 360 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 360 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.17%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,925
• List price: $289,500
• Delta: 70.37%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28890 Lilac Rd #184	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+3%)	7mo	$213,000	$185	90
28890 Lilac Rd #108	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,170 (+4%)	6mo	$130,000	$111	88
28890 Lilac Rd #160	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	3mo	$130,000	$104	78
28890 Lilac Rd Spc 12 Spc 12	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-4%)	21mo	$107,000	$99	76
28890 Lilac Rd #119	0.37mi	2/1.0	1,100 (-2%)	5mo	$60,000	$55	72
28890 Lilac Rd #19	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-2%)	12mo	$85,000	$77	67
28890 Lilac Rd Spc 167 #167	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+14%)	8mo	$239,000	$187	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-20,311
• Equity at exit: $43,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $16,693
• Equity at exit: $25,031

Cash invested: $81,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,060 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,518
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,342/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$643
• Net cashflow: $417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,532

Max offer price $289,500

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,375
• Closing costs: $8,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,500 Active 360 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,500 Active 359 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,500 Active 358 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,500 Active 357 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,500 Active 355 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,500 Active 354 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,500 Active 351 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,500 Active 350 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,500 Active 349 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,500 Active 346 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,500 Active 345 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,500 Active 344 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,500 Active 343 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,500 Active 342 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    price $289,500 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    THIS IS A STEAL!!! brand-new 2025 home, nestled within Hide-Away Lake, a highly desirable 55+ gated community in Valley Center. This beautifully designed residence features an inviting open concept living area perfect for entertaining, with a spacious kitchen and a seamless flow into the great room. Kitchen features brand-new stainless-steel appliances, an island with seating and a walk-in pantry! Relax in the primary suite, complete with a deluxe ensuite bathroom featuring dual sinks and a large walk-in shower with gorgeous floor to ceiling tilework! A second full bath with tub offers convenience for guests. Enjoy the peace of mind of a new build in a well-maintained gated community! The city of Valley Center has several markets, gas stations, restaurants, medical offices, post office, bank, and casinos - Something for everyone! Hurry! Call Now! Serial 235000HA002353A/B

16. 2026-02-24
    price $307,500 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    THIS IS A STEAL!!! brand-new 2025 home, nestled within Hide-Away Lake, a highly desirable 55+ gated community in Valley Center. This beautifully designed residence features an inviting open concept living area perfect for entertaining, with a spacious kitchen and a seamless flow into the great room. Kitchen features brand-new stainless-steel appliances, an island with seating and a walk-in pantry! Relax in the primary suite, complete with a deluxe ensuite bathroom featuring dual sinks and a large walk-in shower with gorgeous floor to ceiling tilework! A second full bath with tub offers convenience for guests. Enjoy the peace of mind of a new build in a well-maintained gated community! The city of Valley Center has several markets, gas stations, restaurants, medical offices, post office, bank, and casinos - Something for everyone! Hurry! Call Now! Serial 235000HA002353A/B

17. 2026-01-20
    price $294,500 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    THIS IS A STEAL!!! brand-new 2025 home, nestled within Hide-Away Lake, a highly desirable 55+ gated community in Valley Center. This beautifully designed residence features an inviting open concept living area perfect for entertaining, with a spacious kitchen and a seamless flow into the great room. Kitchen features brand-new stainless-steel appliances, an island with seating and a walk-in pantry! Relax in the primary suite, complete with a deluxe ensuite bathroom featuring dual sinks and a large walk-in shower with gorgeous floor to ceiling tilework! A second full bath with tub offers convenience for guests. Enjoy the peace of mind of a new build in a well-maintained gated community! The city of Valley Center has several markets, gas stations, restaurants, medical offices, post office, bank, and casinos - Something for everyone! Hurry! Call Now! Serial 235000HA002353A/B

18. 2025-11-04
    price $299,900 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    THIS IS A STEAL!!! brand-new 2025 home, nestled within Hide-Away Lake, a highly desirable 55+ gated community in Valley Center. This beautifully designed residence features an inviting open concept living area perfect for entertaining, with a spacious kitchen and a seamless flow into the great room. Kitchen features brand-new stainless-steel appliances, an island with seating and a walk-in pantry! Relax in the primary suite, complete with a deluxe ensuite bathroom featuring dual sinks and a large walk-in shower with gorgeous floor to ceiling tilework! A second full bath with tub offers convenience for guests. Enjoy the peace of mind of a new build in a well-maintained gated community! The city of Valley Center has several markets, gas stations, restaurants, medical offices, post office, bank, and casinos - Something for everyone! Hurry! Call Now! Serial 235000HA002353A/B

19. 2025-10-21
    price $324,500 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    THIS IS A STEAL!!! brand-new 2025 home, nestled within Hide-Away Lake, a highly desirable 55+ gated community in Valley Center. This beautifully designed residence features an inviting open concept living area perfect for entertaining, with a spacious kitchen and a seamless flow into the great room. Kitchen features brand-new stainless-steel appliances, an island with seating and a walk-in pantry! Relax in the primary suite, complete with a deluxe ensuite bathroom featuring dual sinks and a large walk-in shower with gorgeous floor to ceiling tilework! A second full bath with tub offers convenience for guests. Enjoy the peace of mind of a new build in a well-maintained gated community! The city of Valley Center has several markets, gas stations, restaurants, medical offices, post office, bank, and casinos - Something for everyone! Hurry! Call Now! Serial 235000HA002353A/B

20. 2025-09-23
    price $344,500 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    THIS IS A STEAL!!! brand-new 2025 home, nestled within Hide-Away Lake, a highly desirable 55+ gated community in Valley Center. This beautifully designed residence features an inviting open concept living area perfect for entertaining, with a spacious kitchen and a seamless flow into the great room. Kitchen features brand-new stainless-steel appliances, an island with seating and a walk-in pantry! Relax in the primary suite, complete with a deluxe ensuite bathroom featuring dual sinks and a large walk-in shower with gorgeous floor to ceiling tilework! A second full bath with tub offers convenience for guests. Enjoy the peace of mind of a new build in a well-maintained gated community! The city of Valley Center has several markets, gas stations, restaurants, medical offices, post office, bank, and casinos - Something for everyone! Hurry! Call Now! Serial 235000HA002353A/B

21. 2025-06-19
    listed $349,999 Active 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    THIS IS A STEAL!!! brand-new 2025 home, nestled within Hide-Away Lake, a highly desirable 55+ gated community in Valley Center. This beautifully designed residence features an inviting open concept living area perfect for entertaining, with a spacious kitchen and a seamless flow into the great room. Kitchen features brand-new stainless-steel appliances, an island with seating and a walk-in pantry! Relax in the primary suite, complete with a deluxe ensuite bathroom featuring dual sinks and a large walk-in shower with gorgeous floor to ceiling tilework! A second full bath with tub offers convenience for guests. Enjoy the peace of mind of a new build in a well-maintained gated community! The city of Valley Center has several markets, gas stations, restaurants, medical offices, post office, bank, and casinos - Something for everyone! Hurry! Call Now! Serial 235000HA002353A/B

22. 2012-10-22
    historical
23. 2011-11-22
    historical
24. 2011-09-26
    listed $29,900 Active
25. 2011-09-26
    listed $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,217
• − Property taxes: −$4,342
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,938
• − Management: −$2,938
• − Depreciation: −$8,422
• Taxable income: $419
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$101
• After-tax cash flow: $4,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley Center, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+868.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $289,500 CRMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $307,500 CRMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $294,500 CRMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $299,900 CRMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $324,500 CRMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $344,500 CRMLS
• 2025-06-19 Listed $349,999 CRMLS
• 2012-10-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-11-22 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2011-09-26 Listed $29,900 SDMLS
• 2011-09-26 Listed $29,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-7.2%/yr

Latest (2013): $97 · -37.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.