Oakridge Plan · Geronimo, TX 78155

$203,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily · 219 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $203,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $220,530.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $204k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,471 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1377 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,225 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.79%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,530
• List price: $203,999
• Delta: -7.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5515 Alope Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,266 (0%)	0mo	$189,999	$150	94
9024 James Bowie	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-4%)	1mo	$169,500	$139	81
5739 Alope Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+7%)	5mo	$190,000	$140	77
5511 Alope Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+12%)	0mo	$197,999	$140	75
215 Pastar Fls	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+7%)	1mo	$186,999	$138	70
5705 Mangas Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+7%)	7mo	$178,999	$132	68
121 Pastar Fls	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+7%)	4mo	$165,999	$123	65
154 Pastar Fls	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+7%)	5mo	$175,999	$130	64
126 Pastar Fls	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+7%)	5mo	$169,999	$126	63
980 Pastar Crk	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+7%)	6mo	$344,999	$255	62
968 Pastar Crk	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+7%)	7mo	$183,999	$136	62
988 Pastar Crk	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+7%)	6mo	$180,999	$134	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-49,743
• Equity at exit: $32,882

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-65,687
• Equity at exit: $19,067

Cash invested: $61,748 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1377
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,156
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$276 /mo · $3,308/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,929

Max offer price $192,305

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-43	-5% $-119	+0% $-195	+5% $-271	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-328	-5% $-262	+0% $-195	+5% $-129	+10% $-62
Rate	-1.0pp $-84	-0.5pp $-139	base $-195	+0.5pp $-252	+1.0pp $-310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,133
• Closing costs: $6,616
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9268 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,575	$0.97	4d	1	0.08mi
9272 James Bowie Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	0d	1	0.08mi
9211 Saint Jerome Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	0d	1	0.10mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,700	$1.04	0d	1	0.22mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	0d	1	0.27mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	45d	1	0.27mi
217 Alligator Crk Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	45d	1	0.36mi
964 Pastar Crk Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	0d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $203,999 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $203,999 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $203,999 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $203,999 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $203,999 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $203,999 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $203,999 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $203,999 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $203,999 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $203,999 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $203,999 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $203,999 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $203,999 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $203,999 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $203,999 Active 198 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $205,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

17. 2026-04-17
    price $209,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

18. 2025-11-14
    listed $222,999 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,353
• − Property taxes: −$3,308
• − Insurance: −$1,103
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − Depreciation: −$6,415
• Taxable loss: −$6,222
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,493
• After-tax cash flow: $-847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan and a well-maintained exterior, making it move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes the space and improves energy efficiency
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy savings

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes the space and improves energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy savings ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

Livability — Geronimo

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1471
• US rank: #25174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geronimo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $205,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $209,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-14 Listed $222,999 Zillow