3642 Dover Dr · Kensington Park, FL 34235

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,417 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1958 8,250 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 4-bedroom, 2-bath block home with 1,417 sq ft offers great potential with its sparkling pool, cozy wood-burning fireplace, and spacious layout featuring both a living room and family room. Vaulted ceilings add an open, airy feel, while the indoor laundry room provides everyday convenience. The fenced backyard is perfect for privacy and outdoor enjoyment. Bring your decorative ideas and bring the sparkle back. Ideally situated near the interstate, shopping, and dining for easy access to everything you need.

Key facts

• Vaulted ceilings
• Indoor laundry room
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential, RSF3 zoning; Living area approx. 1,417 sq ft (building area total listed as 1,711 sq ft)
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Other roof type; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.19-acre lot (75 x 110)
• Exterior features: Private in-ground pool; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Open floorplan; Stone countertops; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($622/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in FL, #3,836 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, commute D+, amenities F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $289k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,619 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-30,577
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $36,585
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34235

• Rents YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,456 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,031/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,391

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   status Active
3. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-10
   listed $289,000 Active
5. 2026-03-21
   historical $2,699
6. 2026-03-04
   listed $2,699
7. 2009-11-11
   listed $99,900
8. 2009-11-11
   historical
9. 2009-09-16
   listed $99,900
10. 2007-01-22
    listed $310,000
11. 2003-10-06
    soldstatus $135,000
12. 2001-04-03
    soldstatus $90,000
13. 1980-09-01
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,031 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,031 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$3,031
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,358
• − Management: −$2,358
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$4,313
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,035
• After-tax cash flow: $1,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kensington Park

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #3836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kensington Park, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,146
• Household income: $78,958
• Rent vs Own: 23.5% rent · 76.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 512.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 18% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.37%
• Current HPI: 253.3964
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.68%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+502.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Rental Removed $2,699 Tricon
• 2026-03-04 Listed for Rent $2,699 Tricon
• 2009-11-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-11 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-16 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-22 Listed $310,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2001-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1980-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,031 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.