3029 Garland St · Erie, PA 16506

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1988 6,839 sqft lot Est $139k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful opportunity to own in Millcreek on a pretty landscaped and fenced lot with a 12x16 deck. Many perennials and garden beds with various perennial plants and tall arborvitae and other shrubs separating the boundary lines. Snow bird? Starting out? This affordable home offers 2-3 bedrooms with two full baths. Includes all appliances!

Key facts

• Tall arborvitae
• Perennials
• Garden beds

Tags

• LANDSCAPED LOT
• FENCED LOT
• 12X16 DECK
• PERENNIALS
• GARDEN BEDS
• TALL ARBORVITAE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; R-1 zoning; Landscaped, level lot; Paved road access
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Crawl space with exterior entry
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Fenced yard; Storage (exterior)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven and gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window coverings and drapes; Storage (interior)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $140k implies a 899% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $139,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.37%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2936 Rudolph Ave	0.51mi	2/1.5	996 (+8%)	1mo	$191,500	$192	61
3108 Rudolph Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0	892 (-4%)	10mo	$165,000	$185	59
2346 W 29th St	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,042 (+13%)	9mo	$147,500	$142	55
3813 Blossom Ter	0.68mi	1/1.0 (-1)	893 (-3%)	3mo	$130,000	$146	51
2408 W 29th St	0.15mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+13%)	16mo	$127,000	$122	50
2016 W 37th St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-6%)	5mo	$125,000	$145	48
2911 W 31st St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	10mo	$224,300	$234	45
2039 W 24th St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	15mo	$135,000	$141	44
2573 W 24th St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,016 (+10%)	11mo	$160,000	$157	43
2616 W 35th St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+14%)	12mo	$177,900	$168	39
1839 W 32nd St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	832 (-10%)	10mo	$103,000	$124	34
3118 Hudson Rd	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,058 (+14%)	14mo	$159,000	$150	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $939
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $31,128
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16506

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,578 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,000/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,108

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4024 Canterbury Dr Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1044	$1,350	$1.29	43d	1	1.07mi
3158 W 40th St Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,280	$1.25	43d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 340-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $139,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,000 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,605 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$605/yr (+$50/mo · 60.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,000
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,515
• − Management: −$1,515
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $2,298
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$552
• After-tax cash flow: $3,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,070
• Household income: $81,060
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.21%
• Current HPI: 228.7506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+899.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $139,900 GEBOR
• 1989-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 1989-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,000 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.