Rondonia Plan · Cibolo, TX 78124

$245,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,886 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cottage is a collection of single-family homes now selling at the Grace Valley masterplan in Marion, TX. Residents will enjoy access to an array of onsite amenities, including a relaxing swimming pool with a clubhouse, playground, splash park and much more. Retailers and grocery shopping are a short drive away, and the community features proximity to nearby shopping, dining and entertainment options. Plus, eligible students will attend the highly desirable Marion Independent School District.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Swimming pool
• Splash park

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUND
• SPLASH PARK
• SHOPPING DINING ENTERTAINMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing price $245,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Rondonia)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,886

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan Rondonia (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $245,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $348,910.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-714 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#261 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 408 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,801 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.77%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,910
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2130 Monument Hl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,955 (+4%)	1mo	$262,999	$135	81
2303 Fort Davis Pass	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,955 (+4%)	1mo	$255,000	$130	76
233 Holland Park	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,824 (-3%)	0mo	$307,000	$168	76
5493 Mcbride St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,831 (-3%)	2mo	$360,565	$197	72
5493 Mcbride St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,831 (-3%)	2mo	$349,987	$191	72
511 Avalon Bank	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,703 (-10%)	1mo	$331,000	$194	68
5516 Mcbride St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,995 (+6%)	2mo	$369,990	$185	64
5516 Mcbride St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,995 (+6%)	2mo	$365,000	$183	64
120 Perciful Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,867 (-1%)	2mo	$359,990	$193	64
120 Perciful Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,867 (-1%)	2mo	$359,990	$193	64
5497 Mcbride St	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,100 (+11%)	0mo	$384,990	$183	58
431 Kayden Ct	0.75mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,149 (+14%)	1mo	$264,500	$123	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-102,001
• Equity at exit: $52,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-147,271
• Equity at exit: $30,167

Cash invested: $97,695 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,148 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,234/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-714

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,052

Max offer price $245,548

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,228
• Closing costs: $10,467
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Landmark Brk Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2496	$2,195	$0.88	4d	1	0.11mi
5140 McKittrick Marion, TX	4.0	3.0	2269	$2,200	$0.97	17d	1	0.17mi
2272 Monument Hl , TX	4.0	3.0	2210	$2,400	$1.09	17d	1	0.18mi
524 Landmark Gate Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2496	$2,300	$0.92	23d	1	0.30mi
424 Landmark Fls Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.0	2354	$2,100	$0.89	4d	1	0.32mi
229 Holland Park Schertz, TX	4.0	2.0	1724	$2,075	$1.20	3d	1	0.33mi
226 Fernwood Dr Schertz, TX	4.0	3.5	2408	$2,400	$1.00	23d	1	0.37mi
205 Sunset Hts Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2484	$2,145	$0.86	20d	1	0.71mi
335 Shelton Pass Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2404	$2,350	$0.98	3d	1	0.79mi
5744 Columbia Dr Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.5	2405	$2,029	$0.84	23d	1	0.80mi
3301 Orth Ave Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,200	$1.33	2d	1	0.80mi
420 Cactus Flower Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1774	$1,900	$1.07	14d	1	0.82mi
313 Kayden Ct Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$2,037	$1.29	1d	1	0.85mi
308 Rustic Trl Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1863	$1,895	$1.02	23d	1	0.91mi
429 Payton Pl Santa Clara, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	23d	1	0.95mi
220 Hinge Crk Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	2403	$2,100	$0.87	16d	1	1.07mi
920 Foxbrook Way Cibolo, TX	4.0	3.0	2403	$2,350	$0.98	23d	1	1.15mi
5248 Columbia Dr Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1745	$1,800	$1.03	23d	1	1.18mi
201 Gatewood Fls Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$1,949	$0.87	23d	1	1.20mi
244 Heavenly Vw Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1877	$1,950	$1.04	3d	1	1.20mi
5244 Brookline Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,750	$1.00	23d	1	1.21mi
4909 Tiffany Ln Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,629	$1.14	23d	1	1.24mi
5125 Columbia Dr Cibolo, TX	4.0	3.0	2606	$2,095	$0.80	23d	1	1.38mi
3410 Sherwin Dr Schertz, TX	3.0	2.5	2329	$1,850	$0.79	3d	1	1.39mi
325 Cortijo Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.0	2080	$2,350	$1.13	4d	1	1.39mi
3406 Sherwin Dr Schertz, TX	3.0	2.5	1819	$1,950	$1.07	23d	1	1.39mi
201 Canyon Vis Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2396	$2,000	$0.83	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,999 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,999 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,999 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,999 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,999 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,999 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,999 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,999 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $245,999 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,999 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,999 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,999 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,999 Active 22 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,544
• − Property taxes: −$5,234
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,062
• − Management: −$2,062
• − Depreciation: −$10,150
• Taxable loss: −$15,021
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,605
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations and repairs across all visible systems and areas. Significant updates are needed to bring the home up to current standards and improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen — No photos of kitchen
• Major bathrooms — No photos of bathrooms
• Major roof — No photos of roof
• Major exterior — No photos of exterior
• Major flooring — No photos of flooring
• Major interior walls/paint — No photos of interior walls/paint
• Major windows — No photos of windows
• Major foundation/structure — No photos of foundation/structure
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of HVAC/mechanicals
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of landscaping/curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can significantly enhance the home's appeal
• Resale New flooring throughout — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and modern
• Resale Replace windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and curb appeal
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can attract more buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen · No photos of kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No photos of bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No photos of roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No photos of exterior	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No photos of flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No photos of interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No photos of windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation/structure · No photos of foundation/structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No photos of landscaping/curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 10 items		$150,000–500,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can significantly enhance the home's appeal ↑
• Resale New flooring throughout — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and modern ↑
• Resale Replace windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can attract more buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839480
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,790
• Composite: 44.02/100
• National rank: #2886
• State rank: #152 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cibolo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #6177

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 49,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,907

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B