10416 Debbie Dr · Florence, KY 41042

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 858 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

you own the land. needs work . is lived in now. in Boone County. close to lots of work-hospitals, DHL, Amazon, Fed EX. , CVG . so much jobs here. close to several grocery stores. Buy or Will trade for land, house with land, or land.

Key facts

• Built 1978
• Listed 39 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.4% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in KY, #2,763 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 269 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $150k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.13%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-9,942
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $11,821
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41042

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $318	-5% $266	+0% $215	+5% $163	+10% $111
Rent	-10% $89	-5% $152	+0% $215	+5% $277	+10% $340
Rate	-1.0pp $290	-0.5pp $253	base $215	+0.5pp $176	+1.0pp $136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
648 Friars Ln Florence, KY	2.0	2.0	952	$1,350	$1.42	8d	1	0.45mi
648 Friars Ln Florence, KY	2.0	2.0	952	$1,350	$1.42	21d	1	0.45mi
10124 Carnation Ct #12 Florence, KY	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,450	$1.31	11d	1	0.64mi
550 Mount Zion Rd Florence, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,469	$1.53	3d	20	1.18mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $150,000 Active
16. 1997-03-24
    soldstatus $25,000
17. 1985-03-26
    soldstatus $8,450

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $199
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$48
• After-tax cash flow: $2,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Florence

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #2763

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Boone County · 99,563 people
• City population: 57,634
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 57,634
• Household income: $79,712
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1397.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.07%
• Current HPI: 206.3259
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+1675.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $150,000 FSBO.com
• 1997-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1985-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $8,450 Public Records

Property tax history

-14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $75 · -83.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.