514 Houghton Ave · Marlin, TX 76661

$52,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,118 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1967 $47/sqft · 27% below area Est $71k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom 1 bath Single family home with unfinished garage. Carport is an additional cost. Sold as is

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1967
• Listed 62 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 5.7% in Marlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($360 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,880 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.29%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,889
• List price: $52,000
• Delta: -26.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
813 Live Oak Hwy	0.50mi	2/1.0	1,116 (-0%)	5mo	$79,000	$71	72
406 Gift Street St #1	0.22mi	2/1.0	1,209 (+8%)	8mo	$65,000	$54	70
812 Wabash St	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,102 (-1%)	6mo	$20,000	$18	68
911 Chambers St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,147 (+3%)	7mo	$39,999	$35	64
812 Capps St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,109 (-1%)	22mo	$95,000	$86	58
213 Capps St	0.42mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,004 (-10%)	11mo	$79,000	$79	47
309 Louise St	0.75mi	1/1.0 (-1)	972 (-13%)	0mo	$99,000	$102	38
1209 Coleman St	0.66mi	1/— (-1)	1,002 (-10%)	20mo	$50,000	$50	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $35,345
• Equity at exit: $26,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $86,003
• Equity at exit: $44,392

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,064 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,709/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $553

Max offer price $52,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,000
• Closing costs: $1,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $52,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $52,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $52,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $52,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $52,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $52,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $52,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $52,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $52,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $52,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $52,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $52,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $52,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $52,000 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $52,000 Active 101-char remark

    Show marketing remark (101 chars)

    2 bedroom 1 bath Single family home with unfinished garage. Carport is an additional cost. Sold as is

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,709 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,709 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,913
• − Property taxes: −$1,709
• − Insurance: −$260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,022
• − Management: −$1,022
• − Depreciation: −$1,513
• Taxable income: $4,332
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,040
• After-tax cash flow: $3,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $52,000 Fizber.com

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,709 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.