6326 Summer Lake Dr · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40272

$82,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 $595/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2019 Pre-owned Champion Prime Grand - 4 Bed, 2 Bath The Champion Prime Grand model is a sprawling, family-sized home designed for both comfort and functionality. It features a spacious living room that flows seamlessly into a large dining area, alongside a beautifully appointed, well-equipped kitchen-ideal for everyday living and entertaining. A generous family room provides additional space for relaxation or gatherings. The privately situated master suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with a luxurious ensuite bath. Three oversized guest bedrooms-each with ample walk-in closet space-ensure comfort for family or visitors, while a roomy second bathroom accommodates the household with e

Key facts

• Large dining area
• Generous family room
• Spacious living room

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LARGE DINING AREA
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• GENEROUS FAMILY ROOM
• LUXURIOUS ENSUITE BATH
• OVERSIZED GUEST BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 6326 Summer Lake Dr, Louisville KY 40272
• Financial info: List price $82,000
• HOA & community: Association fee of 595

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family property (spec); Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1904

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Grand - Autumn Lake plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $567 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,540 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.26%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $15,959
• Equity at exit: $12,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $47,369
• Equity at exit: $7,090

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40272

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$595
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,470

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $540	-5% $512	+0% $483	+5% $455	+10% $427
Rent	-10% $319	-5% $401	+0% $483	+5% $566	+10% $648
Rate	-1.0pp $525	-0.5pp $504	base $483	+0.5pp $462	+1.0pp $440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12024 Lavenia Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	3.5	2618	$2,295	$0.88	15d	1	0.24mi
11804 Leemont Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,940	$1.11	24d	1	0.49mi
12306 Glengrove Cir Louisville, KY	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1215	$1,976	$1.63	2d	36	0.63mi
11700 Wiltonwood Ct Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,090	$1.14	4d	1	0.66mi
7019 James Madison Way Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,750	$1.27	2d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $595 · $7,140/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $82,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $82,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,000 Active 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − HOA: −$7,140
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $5,230
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,255
• After-tax cash flow: $4,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,289
• Household income: $69,940
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.10%
• Current HPI: 247.2954
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.07%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B