196 Cottonwood Rd · Louisa, KY 41230

$119,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Other · 66 Days on market

Built 2001 1.50 ac lot $178/sqft · 295% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in a peaceful wooded setting, this charming cabin offers the perfect blend of privacy, comfort and convenience just 2 miles from Yatesville Marina for easy access to boating, fishing and outdoor recreation. Surrounded by mature trees and situated on a beautiful homesite, this property is ideal for a weekend getaway, vacation rental, or full-time retreat. Inside, the cabin comes fully furnished and move-in ready with all appliances, furniture, utensils, bedding, and more conveying with the sale. Just bring your suitcase! Thoughtfully updated in the last 10 years, the electrical, flooring, walls and roof offer peace of mind, while full spray foam insulation provides year-round energy efficiency and comfort. An added bonus is the developed house seat on the property featuring a 1,400 gallon septic tank, creating potential for future expansion.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Thoughtfully updated
• Fully furnished

Tags

• PEACEFUL WOODED SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO BOATING
• FULLY FURNISHED
• MOVE-IN READY
• THOUGHTFULLY UPDATED
• FULL SPRAY FOAM INSULATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-854/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $81k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Louisa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#381 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lawrence County (town): math 23% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #95 of 165 in KY (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Louisa East Elementary School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #329 of 676 statewide, top 49%, 491 students, 62% FRL); Louisa Middle School (math 22% / reading 43%, grade F, #116 of 217 statewide, top 55%, 457 students, 67% FRL); Lawrence County High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #40 of 254 statewide, top 19%, 738 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($826 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $120k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $81,394 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.55%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $30,273
• List price: $119,500
• Delta: 294.74%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $38,358
• Equity at exit: $84,107

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $114,660
• Equity at exit: $160,955

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41230

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $814 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $453/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $904

Max offer price $106,925

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-37	+0% $-71	+5% $-105	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-103	+0% $-71	+5% $-39	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-41	base $-71	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,500 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $119,500 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $134,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $134,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    price $134,900 868-char remark

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    Tucked away in a peaceful wooded setting, this charming cabin offers the perfect blend of privacy, comfort and convenience just 2 miles from Yatesville Marina for easy access to boating, fishing and outdoor recreation. Surrounded by mature trees and situated on a beautiful homesite, this property is ideal for a weekend getaway, vacation rental, or full-time retreat. Inside, the cabin comes fully furnished and move-in ready with all appliances, furniture, utensils, bedding, and more conveying with the sale. Just bring your suitcase! Thoughtfully updated in the last 10 years, the electrical, flooring, walls and roof offer peace of mind, while full spray foam insulation provides year-round energy efficiency and comfort. An added bonus is the developed house seat on the property featuring a 1,400 gallon septic tank, creating potential for future expansion.

19. 2026-04-15
    listed $149,000 Active 868-char remark

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    Tucked away in a peaceful wooded setting, this charming cabin offers the perfect blend of privacy, comfort and convenience just 2 miles from Yatesville Marina for easy access to boating, fishing and outdoor recreation. Surrounded by mature trees and situated on a beautiful homesite, this property is ideal for a weekend getaway, vacation rental, or full-time retreat. Inside, the cabin comes fully furnished and move-in ready with all appliances, furniture, utensils, bedding, and more conveying with the sale. Just bring your suitcase! Thoughtfully updated in the last 10 years, the electrical, flooring, walls and roof offer peace of mind, while full spray foam insulation provides year-round energy efficiency and comfort. An added bonus is the developed house seat on the property featuring a 1,400 gallon septic tank, creating potential for future expansion.

20. 2014-12-13
    soldstatus $36,500
21. 2000-08-01
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $453 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,028 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$575/yr (+$48/mo · 127.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$453
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$781
• − Management: −$781
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable loss: −$3,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$724
• After-tax cash flow: $-130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County
• NCES district ID: 2103240
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $32,668
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7189
• State rank: #95 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisa

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #381
• US rank: #18153

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,399

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,462 people
• By 2030: 15,038 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 14,142 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 13,292 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 11,353 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 9,417 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Asian 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.2) · D 15.9% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -67.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.2 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.5 2012: R+44.3 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.17%
• Current HPI: 177.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+1398.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $134,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $149,000 ImagineMLS
• 2014-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records
• 2000-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $453 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.