320 Windy Hill Ln · Carter, TX 76082

$155,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,049 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 2004 2.00 ac lot $148/sqft · 41% below area Est $263k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nearly 2 acres of land with a small house with a loft on the property. Plenty of space for outdoor living or building your dream home.

Key facts

• Loft
• Small house
• 2 acres of land

Tags

• 2 ACRES OF LAND
• SMALL HOUSE
• LOFT
• OUTDOOR LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($273/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.5% in Carter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Springtown ISD (town): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #435 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 519 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,453 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,827
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -41.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
395 Windy Hl	0.17mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,089 (+4%)	14mo	$274,900	$252	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-23,655
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-18,685
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76082

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Active inventory: 519
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,133/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,336

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-03-16
    listed $170,000 Active 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Nearly 2 acres of land with a small house with a loft on the property. Plenty of space for outdoor living or building your dream home.

16. 2019-12-17
    soldstatus Sold 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    This property is located on windy hill lane. just under 3 acres out in the country in Agnes. With nice views of the surrounding area and quick easy access to Hwy 199 30 min to Ft Worth. Water tap is available at the county road. One single family residence only. Half Down and 15 year note or Bank note if you want to see the land drive up the driveway because it's hidden a little must like sunsets.

17. 2019-11-22
    status Pending 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    This property is located on windy hill lane. just under 3 acres out in the country in Agnes. With nice views of the surrounding area and quick easy access to Hwy 199 30 min to Ft Worth. Water tap is available at the county road. One single family residence only. Half Down and 15 year note or Bank note if you want to see the land drive up the driveway because it's hidden a little must like sunsets.

18. 2019-10-26
    historical Active Option Contract 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    This property is located on windy hill lane. just under 3 acres out in the country in Agnes. With nice views of the surrounding area and quick easy access to Hwy 199 30 min to Ft Worth. Water tap is available at the county road. One single family residence only. Half Down and 15 year note or Bank note if you want to see the land drive up the driveway because it's hidden a little must like sunsets.

19. 2019-08-16
    listed $49,900 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    This property is located on windy hill lane. just under 3 acres out in the country in Agnes. With nice views of the surrounding area and quick easy access to Hwy 199 30 min to Ft Worth. Water tap is available at the county road. One single family residence only. Half Down and 15 year note or Bank note if you want to see the land drive up the driveway because it's hidden a little must like sunsets.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,133 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$703/yr (+$59/mo · 33.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,133
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,310
• − Management: −$1,310
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,345
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$563
• After-tax cash flow: $836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springtown ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,136
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5474
• State rank: #435 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carter

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,880
• Household income: $92,485
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 333.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.65%
• Current HPI: 262.1991
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+240.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2019-12-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-11-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-10-26 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-08-16 Listed $49,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2019): $2,133 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.